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Published byZoe Webster Modified over 9 years ago
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Mark W. Callahan, FCAS SVP, Underwriter XL Financial Solutions Capital Adequacy CAS Annual Meeting– November 2002
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The material presented in no way represents the views or outlook of XL Capital or the panel. Please disregard any uninformed or irrational opinions of the presenter.
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Issues Affecting Capital Adequacy Liabilities Investments Bad Management
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Where is the Industry from an Investment Perspective?
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Notable Credit Events Bond Defaults in 1st Half of 2002 –21 defaults > $1B –89 defaults = $76.7B –4 defaults = $4B within 12 months of IG Disclosure Source: Moody’s Clash Financial Guaranty Surety E&O
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Source: Moody’s Higher Losses
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Source: Moody’s Default Rates
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Historical Recovery Rates Source: Moody’s
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Source: contraryinvestor.com Corporate Debt Load
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Industry Confidence in Reserves
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Liabilities - Who Cheats? Source: Educational Testing Service Percentage of College Students Who Report Having Cheated 75% - 98%
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Who’s Guilty 3,259 A.M. Best Rated U.S. P/C Companies 334 Rated B++ and B+ 518 Rated A- 107 Publicly Traded Companies Long Tail Lines or Latent Liabilities Source: A.M. Best, CNN Money
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Coming to a Theater Near You... Asbestos 6000 Named Defendants Increased Claims Activity Reform $45-70B Unreserved (Not Anytime Soon) Source: Asbestos: A Moving Target (Bhagavatula, Moody, Russ); AM Bests
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Inflation on Long Tail Lines Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Medical Litigation US Workers Compensation –$35B Gross Reserve (00 & 01) –$62B Gross Reserve (99 & Prior) $372B Total Industry Reserves
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Actuarial Bias?
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Public Perception
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Surplus Source: Best’s Aggregates and Averages
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Rating Migration in 2002 Source: Standard & Poor’s
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Top 15 Reinsurance Groups Based on Net Reinsurance Premiums Written - 2002 Source: Standard & Poor’s Reinsurance Group Standard & Poor'sMoody's January 2002October 2002January 2002October 2002 Munich Re GroupAAA AaaAa1 Swiss Re GroupAAAAA+Aaa Berkshire Hathaway Re GroupAAA Aaa Employers Re GroupAAAAA+Aaa Hannover Re GroupAA A2 Lloyd'sAA Gerling Global Re GroupAA-BBBAa3 SCOR Re GroupAA-A+A1 Allianz Re GroupAA+AAAa3 AXA Re GroupAA Aa3 Converium Re GroupA+ A1 Transatlantic Re GroupAA Aa1 PartnerRe GroupAA Aa3 XL Re GroupAA Aa2 St. Paul Re GroupAA-A+Aa3
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