1. June 15, 2011 Bob Dulla Sierra Research

2. Fairbanks PM 2.5 Modeling Domain – Grid 3 2

3. Fairbanks PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area 3

4. Draft Emission Estimates by Source (Winter 2008) Fine Particulates (PM 2.5 ) Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) 4

5. Fairbanks Grid 3 2007/2008 Oct-Mar Emissions by Source Sector (tons/day) SourcePM 2.5 SO 2 NOXVOCNH 3 CO Point0.397.0713.030.500.457.24 Area1.823.281.903.620.0014.13 On-Road0.180.039.533.410.2965.70 Non-Road0.100.000.094.470.0011.71 Total2.4910.3924.5511.990.7498.78 5

6. Studies Conducted to Improve Fairbanks Emission Estimates  Telephone survey of space heating by zip code  Space heating appliance survey  Laboratory measurements of vehicle emissions  Wood storage and drying time  Survey of emissions from each point source in the area  Laboratory measurements of emissions from fuels used in Fairbanks homes 6

7. Residential Heating Device and Fuel Surveys for Fairbanks Winter Main Purposes: Determine an accurate mix of heating devices and fuels to estimate PM 2.5 for Fairbanks.  Surveys conducted for 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011  2011 Survey sample size of 712 respondents  Six zip codes: 99701, 99703, 99705, 99709, 99712, 99775  626 landline (apportioned by zip code population)  86 cell phone (randomly selected)  Key questions answered  Device counts  Device and fuel usage  Device and fuel properties  Home heating costs  Regional and sub-regional variations 7

8. 2011 Home Heating Survey Device Counts StatisticParameterSurvey Results Total Estimated Devices for Fairbanks Wood 8,62322.53% Central Oil 20,26552.70% Portable 1,2942.95% Direct Vent 4,63510.80% Natural Gas 1,0062.60% Coal Heat 3590.82% District Heat 7552.22% Electric Device 6831.62% Other 1,5093.75% Total 39,129100% 8

9. Summary of 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011 Home Heating Surveys StatisticParameter Survey Results 2006200720102011 Average Winter Device Use by Type (% of Household Use) Wood10.1%11.8%17.2% 14.8% Central Oil68.0%63.6%67.3% 68.0% Portable0.7%0.5%0.2% 0.9% Direct Vent8.6%7.4%8.2% 9.2% Natural Gas2.6%2.3%4.5% 3.3% Coal Heatn/a 0.5% 0.6% District Heat2.8%1.1%1.3% 1.9% Electric Devicen/a 0.5% Other7.2%13.4%0.7% 0.9% 9

10. Space Heating Appliance Survey  CCHRC pilot study of 12 homes – Feb/Mar 2010  Larger study of 30 homes – Dec 2010/Jan 2011  Instrumentation and data logs used to measure fuel use and/or stack temperatures for  fuel oil only  wood only  wood and fuel oil  Firewood samples collected to determine moisture content 10

11. Summary of Firewood Cure Adequacy 11

12. Pilot Study – Diurnal Profile of Mixed Oil-Wood Heating Use 12

13. Characterizing Vehicular Contributions to PM 2.5 in Fairbanks in Winter Main Purposes: Determine Effect of Plugin and Temperature on PM 2.5 Emissions, Compare Results with EPA’s MOVES Model  6-vehicle pilot study in 2009-10, developed and tested methods, upgraded facility  Main study Jan/Mar 2011 measured exhaust emissions from 11 cars & 22 light duty trucks, MYs 1983-2010  Fairbanks Cold Temperature Test Facility (temps from -30 to 44°F)  Dyno tests with plugin and twice w/o plugin (different temps.)  Cold start Alaska Drive Cycle with 5-minute warmup idle and hot start ADC, monitored engine temperatures Sponsors: DEC with support from FNSB 13

14. PM 2.5 Emissions for Composite Trip (4.74 mi) (ADC Testing versus EPA MOVES Model) 14

15. Aircraft Emissions  Activity data collected for major airports (FAI, Wainwright & Eielson)  Separate emission estimates computed for aircraft and GSE  6 modes of operation/LTO (emitted at different heights)  Challenge to correctly allocate to WRF vertical layers  Vast majority of pollutants emitted at ground level  SMOKE treats airport emissions as point source  Magnitude of emissions from combined airports trivial for non-CO 2 pollutants (fraction of a metric ton/day) 15

16. Rail Emissions  ARRC provided activity data for line-haul and yard operation separately  Line-haul activity for individual line segments (e.g., Healy to Fairbanks)  average # of trains/day for each winter month  hours of operation provided (e.g., 0800 – 1600)  average fuel use per train  Separate estimates of fuel use for Fairbanks and Eielson yards  Total rail NOx is ~ 1 ton/day, max grid cell value is 1.2 lbs/day 16

17. Firewood Storage Best Practices  CCHRC cut fresh trees in the spring and fall of 2010  Measured initial moisture levels for spruce, birch and aspen  Set up several wood storage/preparation methods (shed, stacked/tarp, uncovered/stacked & solar kiln)  Collected regular moisture measurements to monitor curing  Discontinued measurements when moisture reached 20% or less 17

18. Firewood Storage Best Practices (cont.)  Key findings from spring harvest:  Split firewood dries more quickly than whole logs  Most storage methods produced moisture levels ≤ 20% in 6-week to 3-month summer period  Whole logs had moisture levels between 21% - 43% by late August  Key findings from fall harvest:  Firewood dries marginally over the winter  Moisture levels by late March between 40% - 72%  Firewood harvested in the fall should not be burned the following winter 18

19. Other Studies  ADEC requested information on winter hourly emissions from each point source located in the Fairbanks area  All sources responded  Data is currently being processed  Borough contract with OMNI Labs to measure emissions from following using Fairbanks fuels, but not Fairbanks winter temperatures – results pending  Wood stoves  Pellet stoves  Coal stoves  OWBs – with/without add-on stack controls (e.g., catalyst)  Fuel oil stoves (with #1 & 2 heating oil & used motor oil) 19

20. Emission Inventory Changes Expected  Wood burning emissions will increase  Motor vehicle emissions will decrease  Diurnal profiles from most sources will be improved  Chemical profiles for space heating fuels will be more representative Borough fuels 20