1. Feed Outlook Jim Dunn Ag Economist Pennsylvania State University

2. Sources of Information USDA http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /homepage.dohttp://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /homepage.do http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=3http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=3 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=25http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=25 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda /viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1273

3. What these are called USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS) Field Crops Outlooks, Yearbooks, and Estimates Feed Outlook

4. Other useful links Oil Crops Outlook Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Milk Production Feed grains database Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: Tables

5. Issues for Feed Economy Bio-Fuel Large 2014 & 2015 crops Falling land prices Expensive dollar Chinese economy Russian Embargo Weather

6. Bio-Fuel Ethanol Bio-diesel Both ethanol & bio-diesel subsidies political issue this year Does it make sense to use food for fuel?

7. Ethanol Demand falling because of better fuel economy Not the issue it was in 2008 Smaller portion of corn crop Talk of dropping mandate Industry wants it to increase World opposition to fuel from food building

8. Corn Notes Chinese economy slumping China trying to increase hog production South American crop should be okay

10. Corn Supply Bil. Bu. YearBeg stocksProductionSupply 2009/101.6713.1014.77 2011/121.1312.3613.51 2012/130.9910.7811.93 2013/140.8213.9214.78 2014/151.2314.2215.48 2015/161.7313.6015.37 Source: USDA

11. Corn Usage bil. bu Source: USDA YearFeedFoodFuelExportsTotal 2009/105.131.354.591.9813.07 2011/124.551.435.011.5412.53 2012/134.331.404.640.7311.18 2013/145.031.375.131.9213.45 2014/155.321.365.211.7313.48 2015/165.301.375.201.7013.57

12. Corn Usage Crop2004201020142015 Feed57.8%36.7%38.7%39.1% Food12.8%10.8%9.9%10.1% Exports17.1%14.2% 12.5% Ethanol12.4%38.5%37.9%38.3%

14. Other mostly Russia and Ukraine

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18. Soybean Notes South American crop is huge – up 23% from last year

21. Soybean Supply mil.bu. YearCarry-inProductionTotal 200913833593512 201015133293495 201216930423252 201314133583478 20149239694094 201519139304150

22. Soybean Usage YearCrushExportsSeedTotal 2009175215011083361 2010164815011303280 2012168913171053111 2013173416381063478 2014187318431453862 2015180016901303710

23. Soybean Carryout & Price YearCarryout mil. bu. PriceDays Use of carryout 2009151$9.5916 2010215$11.3023 2012141$14.4016 201392$13.009.5 2014191$10.1019.5 2015440$8.8045.1

25. Soybean Futures

26. Corn futures prices 2/1/16 MonthPrice (cts/bu.) March 163706 May 16374 July 16379 Sept 16383 Dec 16391

29. China Meat consumption grew nearly ten-fold to 71 million metric tons since 1975 Just announced it is scaling back its annual grain production targets to put a greater emphasis on quality rather than quantity Big effect on imports of feed and animal products – already the big player Chinese per capita meat consumption has doubled since 1992 to 52.5 kilograms (114 lbs) US about 211 lbs.

30. Soybean futures prices 2/1/16 MonthPrice (cts/bu.) March 16882 May 16883 July 16888 Sept 16889 Nov 16891

37. Cattle Market Drought in High Plains continues to hurt cow-calf herd. Few animals in pipeline Lowest January 1 inventory of cattle and calves since 1951 Profitability improved but supply response is very slow Prices high throughout 2015 In November, average retail choice-beef prices were a near record $6.31/lb. – demand lower

38. Hog notes Industry booming The new chicken Porcine epidemic diarrhea seems to be solved

39. Poultry Notes Eggs and Broilers cheapest form of protein Margins better Exports important and weakness in world economy affects price

48. Concluding Questions Lower feed prices helped animal agriculture Will feed prices stay low? Will we really keep cutting per capita meat consumption?