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The Riksbank’s forecasting performance Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

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Presentation on theme: "The Riksbank’s forecasting performance Deputy Governor Svante Öberg."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Riksbank’s forecasting performance Deputy Governor Svante Öberg

2 Figure 1. GDP outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

3 Figure 2. Employment outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4 Figure 3. CPIX outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5 Figure 4. Productivity outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

6 Figure 5. Forecasting memory, GDP Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

7 Figure 6. Forecasting memory, employment Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

8 Figure 7. Forecasting memory, productivity Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

9 Figure 8. Forecasting memory for the KPIX Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Kvartal

10 Figure 9. Correlations between forecasts and outcomes for the different variables Annual rates of change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

11 Figure 10. Mean error for forecasts, an annual rate Percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Forecast horizon (quarterly)

12 Figure 11. Ranking for GDP following year Per cent Note. The Y-axis shows how large a percentage of times analysts have been better than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in the X-axis. In order to see how large a proportion of times the Riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the X-axis, then study the red column on the Y-axis. Sources: Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Consensus Forecasts and the Riksbank

13 Figure 12. Ranking for the CPI following year Per cent Note. The Y-axis shows how large a percentage of times analysts have been better than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in the X-axis. In order to see how large a proportion of times the Riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the X-axis, then study the red column on the Y-axis. Sources: Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Consensus Forecasts and the Riksbank

14 Figure 13. The CPIX with uncertainty band Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

15 Figure 14. Repo rate with uncertainty band Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

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