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Published byAntony Barnett Modified over 9 years ago
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Long Island Import Export Association May 15, 2008 Export Trends
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2 ► Space Crunch ► 20% increase in export volume ► Reduced vessel size (larger vessels moved to more lucrative trades) ► Huge shift from bulk to containerized movement for agricultural products ► Decreased import volumes = limited availability of empty equipment ► Increasing Rates ► Equipment Imbalance Surcharge ($300/cntr – Midwest to TPWB) ► Special Equipment Premium ($300/cntr – TAEB) ► GRI ($350 to $500/cntr – Latin America) ► Emergency BAF ($300/cntr – TPWB) ► Outlook ► Falling dollar likely to keep exports strong ► Growth expected to continue through remainder of this year ► Fuel increases continue to be a major rate component Trends in Ocean Export Transportation
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3 ► Capacity Management ► 15% decrease in yoy volume reported at major ports ► Vessel re-deployment cuts capacity ► Increasing Rates ► Floating Bunker Adjustment Factor (all trades) ► GRI (Trans-Pacific) ► Intermodal Fuel Surcharges (all trades) ► Outlook ► Falling dollar likely to keep imports weak ► Uncertainty over retail outlook for Fall 2008 ► Contracts ► Some breaks among carriers on selected business ► Limited contracts executed in the industry (30% of BCO’s, almost no NVOCC’s) Trends in Ocean Import Transportation
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4 ► Traditional Business Lagging ► Fashion, Retail; Imports ► US Imports Remain Dominant ► Non-Traditional Business Offsetting Some Losses ► Pressure on Ocean Leads to Increased Use of Air ► Decreasing Rates ► Traditional Strong Markets Showing Weakness ► Asia –to- USA Drives the Industry ► Much of ATA Decreases offset by Rampaging Fuel Surcharges ► Outlook ► Falling dollar likely to keep exports strong ► Growth expected to continue through remainder of this year ► Fuel increases continue to be a major rate component Trends in Air Import Transportation
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5 ► Tonnages Surging in Some Sectors ► Weak Dollar Drives Exports ► Lack of Ocean Equipment = Routing Factor ► Surging Surcharges ► Class Actions Raise Doubts ► Carriers Showing Flexibility on Exceptional Shipments ► Steadying Rates ► Over-Capacity Remains ► Outlook ► Falling dollar, Growth to Continue, Fuel will continue to define overall cost Trends in Air Export Transportation
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6 Applicable (only) to Cargo Transported on Passenger Aircraft ► Today = Screening Mandate = 10% ► March 2009 = Screening Mandate = 50% ► August 2010 = Screening Mandate = 100% ► Certified Shipper Program ► TSA Verification of Shipper’s Location(s) ► Employee Screening ► Indirect Air Carrier (IAC) Training ► Certified Cargo Screening Facility ► 3 rd Party Transactions, Performing Above Services Trends in Air Freight – Unprecedented Security
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