1. Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional Responses to Environmental Conditions AN ADAPTATION OF THE SHIRAZ MODEL FOR ONCORHYNCHUS MYKISS 2008 Steelhead Management Meeting March 4–6 2008

2. Ray Hilborn Lucy Flynn Dave Beauchamp Brad Thompson Craig Busack

3. Modeling Objective Population dynamics ΔNΔN Habitat management Human actions VSP criteria Habitat response ΔPΔP ΔSΔS ΔDΔD Fish response Habitat Conditions Road decommissioning Change in levels of fine sediment Change in egg-to- fry survival e.g., Bartz et al. 2006 e.g., Scheuerell et al. 2006

4. Map source: http://www.sharedsalmonstrategy.org Puget Sound Western WA

5. Ward et al. (2006) – shift in smolt age after habitat restoration and nutrient addition Thrower et al. (2004) – development of resident population from anadromous Chris Frederiksen (Biologist, Yakama Nation; personal comment) – steady increase in proportion of females amongst anadromous fish Life-History Plasticity in Steelhead

6. Effect of Environment on Life-History Trajectories

7. Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006

8. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model Moussalli and Hilborn 1986

9. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model S R1R1 R2R2 Moussalli and Hilborn 1986

10. p,c = f(habitat conditions) Scheuerell et al. 2006

11. Resident & Anadromous O. mykiss Genetics  Seamons et al. (2004) – 39% of juvenile steelhead could not be assigned one parent, and 88% of those could not be assigned a male parent.  Araki et al. (2007) – “high levels of reproductive contribution of nonanadromous parents to anadromous offspring when anadromous run size is small” Observation  McMillan et al. (2007) – 14.5% of attempted matings with wild anadromous females were by wild resident males.

12. Detailed Tracking in Model Life-history stages include the periods of time between each decision-making point O. mykiss born of anadromous mothers and those born of resident mothers are tracked separately. Males and females are tracked separately The average body size of each of fish is tracked using a bioenergetics model.

13. Life- History Stage Area G G G G G Life- History Stage

14. Groups within life-history stages identified by  Area of birth  Area of current residence  Year of birth  Sex  Life-history stage  History  Life-history trajectory  Spatial history  Somatic growth (tracked only through juvenile stages) Detailed tracking

15. Emphasize the four categories of stages Note that the key concern is freshwater stages…

18. Issue: Ecologically Overlapping Stages Figure from Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006

19. Competitive Overlap Percent Habitat Saturation (PHS; Grant et al. 1998) Effective number of competitors (E)

20. Functional Relationships Poster!

21. Thanks… WDFW: Anne Marshall, Jim Scott, Brett Barkdull, Tasha Geiger, Mat Gillum, Thom Johnson, Randy Cooper, Joanne Schuett-Hames, Hal Michael NMFS: Krista Bartz, James Battin, Jeff Hard, Beth Sanderson, George Pess, Jon Honea, Mark Scheuerell, Kelly Burnett, Pete Lawson UW: Todd Seamons, Tom Quinn, Willy Eldridge Others: Chris Frederiksen, Bill McMillan, John McMillan, Ray Beamesderfer, Bill Graeber, Yetta Jager, Larry Lestelle, Steven Ralph, Pamela Woods, Bob Vadas