1. Conceptualizing Welfare State Change Jørgen Goul Andersen CCWS (www.ccws.dk) Aalborg University oct 2007

2. 1. Welfare states do change 2. The independent variable problem: What determines change 3. Some popular accounts of change: Pierson, Hall 4. Level of change: Paradigm/ discourse, policy, institutions, outcomes 5. Direction of change 6. Dynamics and degree of change 7. Policy feedback 8. Convergence or divergence

3. 1.Welfare states do change Political institutionalism: Veto point literature - variations in political institutions "Policy institutionalism", Path dependence - the problem of distinguishing between policy and institutions - status quo bias - vested interests; asymmetry - normative institutionalism: socialisation effects - behavioural adaptations and lock-in effects - practical/ administrative costs of change - political costs of change

4. - re-interpretation of path dependence as dynamic phenomenon negative feedback model (static) positive feedback model (dynamic) martingale model - path dependence: perspective or theory ("mechanisms") explaining the past and explaining the future timing as an essential phenomenon

5. 2. The independent variable problem: What determines change * Functionalism/ neo-functionalism (and economics): Economic (social) necessity * Political power struggle - class project model - patchwork model * Ideational factors - paradigm shift - policy learning/ social learning - policy diffusion/ policy transfer - agenda setting, framing * Institutional dynamics * Deep equilibria

6. 3. Some popular accounts of change: Pierson, Hall Pierson: Retrenchment, restructuring - cost containment - recalibration - recommodification Problem: Recalibration can be anything. Considered non-transformative

7. Peter Hall: - first order change: Change of settings - second order change: Change of instruments - third order change: Change of paradigms Problem: (1) Weak correspondence with outcomes. What if Unempl. Benefits is reduced by 50 per cent? What if duration is shortened by 50 per cent? Are these changes “first order”? (2) Transformative changes can be - incremental or even silent revolutions - consensual

8. 4. Level of change: Paradigm/ discourse, policy, institutions, outcomes Paradigm / coordination discourse Policy Institutions - correspondence with theoretical notions of the welfare state institutions / welfare regimes / principles insurance / risk management (pooling, coverage) welfare mix / welfare pluralism - market - state - family - voluntary associations - social responsibility of firms - social partners Outcomes - immediate policy impact (e.g. on those who are activated) - impact on broader social indicators (citizenship, poverty)

9. In the final analysis, impact on citizenship is decisive Danish ALMP. 1989-1992: Changing paradigms/discourse 1993-2001: Changing policies 2001-2007: Changing outcomes

10. Eight possible combinations of states and markets: who decides/ regulates who finances who delivers

11. 5. Direction of change More or less - retrenchment - recommodification - targeting Liberalization Marketization ("generous recommodification") - activation of social protection (incentives) - new public management Changing principles / regime shift Changed risk pooling Changed division of labour Activation of social protection Social investment state Active citizenship Activation regimes (social democratic activation / workfare)

12. 6. Dynamics of change punctuated equilibrium model (Baumgartner & Jones 1993) (Deterministic) Path dependence & path breaking incremental vs. abrupt change transformative change vs. continuity Transformative capacity of incremental change (Streeck/Thelen 2005) - Layering (New scheme added to existing ones; new pillar) - Drift (Institutions don’t change – but context does!) - Conversion (Institutions redirected to new goals) (New Institutionalism: Institutions matter! Question: How much?)

13. 7. Policy feedback Functional equivalence can be stable or unstable - changing interest configuration - policy learning/ social learning - policy diffusion/ policy transfer

14. 8. Convergence or divergence Functionalism - convergence Institutionalism – divergence convergence divergence persistent differences parallel trends, persistent diversity