1. 1 Introduction A Model of a Two-Factor Economy Effects of International Trade Between Two-Factor Economies Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model Summary Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices Chapter4 Resources and Trade:The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

2. 2 Introduction In the real world, while trade is partly explained by differences in labor productivity, it also reflects differences in countries’ resources. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory: –Emphasizes resource differences as the only source of trade(P67) –Shows that comparative advantage is influenced by: Relative factor abundance (refers to countries) Relative factor intensity (refers to goods) –Is also referred to as the factor-proportions theory

3. 3

4. 4 Eli F. Heckscher(1879-1952) 。 1879 1897 1909- 1929 (1919 ， 1924)

5. 5 Bertil Ohlin Sweden Stockholm School of Economics Stockholm, Sweden 1899 - 1979 1)1899 –4 2) 1924 3)1929 4)1933 5) 1977 6) 1979 -8

6. 6  Assumptions of the Model An economy can produce two goods, cloth and food. The production of these goods requires two inputs that are in limited supply; labor (L) and land (T). Production of food is land-intensive and production of cloth is labor-intensive in both countries. Perfect competition prevails in all markets. 4-1 A Model of a Two-Factor Economy

7. 7 // Input combinations that produce one calorie of food Unit land input a TF, in acres per calorie Unit labor input a LF, in hours per calorie Figure 4-1: Input Possibilities in Food Production

8. 8 –Factor Intensity In a world of two goods (cloth and food) and two factors (labor and land), food production is land- intensive, if at any given wage-rental ratio the land- labor ratio used in the production of food is greater than that used in the production of cloth: T F /L F > T C / L C –Example: If food production uses 80 workers and 200 acres, while cloth production uses 20 workers and 20 acres, then food production is land- intensive and cloth production is labor-intensive.

9. 9 L T Q=2 Q=1 A B S O

10. 10 CC FF Wage-rental ratio, w/r Land-labor ratio, T/L Figure 4-2: Factor Prices and Input Choices

11. 11 Factor Prices and Goods Prices –Stolper-Samuelson Theorem (effect): If the relative price of a good increases, holding factor supplies constant, then the nominal and real return (in terms of both goods) to the factor used intensively in the production of that good increases, while the nominal and real return (in terms of both goods) to the other factor decreases. –The reverse is also true.

12. 12 斯托尔帕－萨缪尔森定理：在要素供给约束的条 件下，一种商品的相对价格上升，提高了生产该 商品时所密集使用的要素的名义收益和真实收益 （用两种商品衡量） ；但其他要素的收益则下降。

13. 13 SS Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Wage-rental ratio, w/r Figure 4-3: Factor Prices and Goods Prices(P70)

14. 14 FF CC SS Land- labor Ratio, T/L Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Wage-rental ratio, w/r (P C /P F ) 1 (T C /L C ) 2 (T C /L C ) 1 (T F /L F ) 2 (T F /L F ) 1 (w/r) 2 (w/r) 1 Increasing Figure 4-4: From Goods Prices to Input Choices(P71) (P C /P F ) 2

15. 15 An increase in the price of cloth relative to that of food, P C /P F,will: （ P71 ） –Raise the income of workers relative to that of landowners, w/r. –Raise the ratio of land to labor, T/L, in both cloth and food production and thus raise the marginal product of labor in terms of both goods. –Raise the purchasing power of workers and lower the purchasing power of landowners, by raising real wages and lowering real rents in terms of both goods.

16. 16 Resources and Output –How is the allocation of resources determined? Given the relative price of cloth and the supplies of land and labor, it is possible to determine how much of each resource the economy devotes to the production of each good.

17. 17 LFLF TFTF LCLC TCTC Labor used in food production Labor used in cloth production OFOF Increasing Land used in cloth production Land used in food production 1 F C OCOC Figure 4-5: The Allocation of Resources(P73)

18. 18 How do the outputs of the two goods change when the economy’s resources change? –Rybczynski Theorem (effect): –If a factor of production (T or L) increases, then the supply of the good that uses this factor intensively increases and the supply of the other good decreases for any given commodity prices. The reverse is also true.

19. 19 雷布津斯基定理：商品价格不变条件下，某要素 禀赋的增加将导致该要素密集度高的产品的产出 增加，并减少其它产品的产出。

20. 20 CL2FL2F L2CL2C T1FT1F T1CT1C F1F1 L1FL1F L1CL1C T2FT2F T2CT2C 1 Figure 4-6: An Increase in the Supply of Land （ P74 ） Labor used in food production Labor used in cloth production Increasing Land used in cloth production Land used in food production F2F2 O1FO1F O2FO2F 2 OCOC

21. 21 TT 1 TT 2 Output of food, Q F Output of cloth, Q C Slope = -P C /P F 2 Q2FQ2F Q2CQ2C 1 Q1FQ1F Q1CQ1C Figure 4-7: Resources and Production Possibilities （ P75 ）

22. 22 An increase in the supply of land (labor) leads to a biased expansion of production possibilities toward food (cloth) production. （ P74 ） The biased effect of increases (decreases) in resources on production possibilities is the key to understanding how differences in resources give rise to international trade. An economy will tend to be relatively effective at producing goods that are intensive in the factors with which the country is relatively well-endowed. （ P75 ）

23. 23 A 、发达工业国家的相对资源禀赋情况 1980 年发达工业国家资源禀赋的占有率 国家有形资 本 科技人 员 熟练工 人 半熟练工 人 非熟练工 人 可耕土 地 所有资源 美国 33 。 650 。 727 。 714 。 10 。 1929 。 328 。 3 日本 15 。 5 23 8。78。711 。 50 。 250。80。811 。 2 西德 7。77。7 10 6。96。95。55。50 。 081。11。17。27。2 英国 4。54。58。58。55。15。14。94。90 。 091。01。05。15。1 法国 7。57。5 66 3。93。90 。 062。62。6 5 加拿大 3。93。91。81。82。92。92。12。10 。 036。16。12。62。6 其他国 家 27 。 3 0 42 。 7 53 99 。 3259 。 139 。 3 总计 100 ％

24. 24 B 、一些国家的资本 / 劳动比率 1990 年一些国家的人均资本存量 发达国家 1990 发展中国家 1990 加拿大 47961 韩国 20644 西德 47441 哥伦比亚 15648 法国 42760 阿根廷 13972 日本 87197 智利 11670 美国 41514 泰国 5574 意大利 37612 菲律宾 4239 西班牙 28911 印度 2345 英国 23816 肯尼亚 1056

25. 25 Assumptions of the Heckscher-Ohlin model: –There are two countries (Home and Foreign) that have: Same tastes Same technology Different resources –Home has a higher ratio of labor to land than Foreign does –Each country has the same production structure of a two-factor economy. 4-2 Effects of International Trade Between Two- Factor Economies

26. 26 Relative Prices and the Pattern of Trade –Factor Abundance （ P77 ） Home country is labor-abundant compared to Foreign country (and Foreign is land-abundant compared to Home) if and only if the ratio of the total amount of labor to the total amount of land available in Home is greater than that in Foreign: L/T > L * / T * –Example: if America has 80 million workers and 200 million acres, while Britain has 20 million workers and 20 million acres, then Britain is labor-abundant and America is land-abundant. In this case, the scarce factor in Home is land and in Foreign is labor.

27. 27 –When Home and Foreign trade with each other, their relative prices converge. The relative price of cloth rises in Home and declines in Foreign. In Home, the rise in the relative price of cloth leads to a rise in the production of cloth and a decline in relative consumption, so Home becomes an exporter of cloth and an importer of food. Conversely, the decline in the relative price of cloth in Foreign leads it to become an importer of cloth and an exporter of food.

28. 28 RD RS RS * 1 2 3 Figure 4-8: Trade Leads to a Convergence of Relative Prices Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Relative quality of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F

29. 29 粮食 粮食 (P C /P F ) 3 3 1 (P C /P F ) 1 棉布 棉布 ( 绿线和黄线分别表示贸易前和贸易后的消费无差异曲线）

30. 30 Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem:(P76) –A country will export that commodity which uses intensively its abundant factor and import that commodity which uses intensively its scarce factor.

31. 31 案例：发达工业国家的出 / 进口比率 产品美国日本西德法国英国加拿大 技术密 集型 1.525.672.41.381.390.77 服务 1.470.730.81.321.190.5 标准化 产品 0.391.090.841.030.761.38 劳动密 集型 0.381.040.590.860.710.2 初级产 品 0.550.040.290.520.812.21

32. 32 Trade and the Distribution of Income –Trade produces a convergence of relative prices. –Changes in relative prices have strong effects on the relative earnings of labor and land in both countries: In Home, where the relative price of cloth rises: – Laborers are made better off and landowners are made worse off. In Foreign, where the relative price of cloth falls, the opposite happens: – Laborers are made worse off and landowners are made better off. –Owners of a country’s abundant factors gain from trade, but owners of a country’s scarce factors lose.(P77)

33. 33 Difference between the specific factors model and the Heckscher-Ohlin model in terms of income distribution effects: –The specificity of factors to particular industries is often only a temporary problem. Example: Garment makers cannot become computer manufactures overnight, but given time the U.S. economy can shift its manufacturing employment from declining sectors to expanding ones. –In contrast, effects of trade on the distribution of income among land, labor, and capital are more or less permanent.

34. 34 Factor Price Equalization –In the absence of trade: labor would earn less in Home than in Foreign, and land would earn more. –Factor-Price Equalization Theorem: International trade leads to complete equalization in the relative and absolute returns to homogeneous factors across countries. It implies that international trade is a substitute for the international mobility of factors.

35. 35 –Has international trade equalized the returns to homogeneous factors in different countries in the real world? Even casual observation clearly indicates that it has not. –Example: Wages are much higher for doctors, engineers, technicians, mechanics and laborers in the United States and Germany than in Korea and Mexico. Under these circumstances, it is more realistic to say that international trade has reduced, rather than completely eliminated, the international difference in the returns to homogeneous factors.

36. 36 Table 4-1: Comparative International Wage Rates (United States = 100) （ P79 ）

37. 37 –Three assumptions crucial to the prediction of factor price equalization are in reality untrue: （ P79 ） Both countries produce both goods Both countries have the same technologies in production Both countries have the same prices of goods due to trade

38. 38 发达工业国家制造业的每小时工资与美国的比率 国家 1959197619851993 日本 112451108 意大利 234262111 法国 274162104 英国 29355390 西德 295684128 一般平均 244062108 美国 100

39. 39 Table 4-2: Composition of Developing-Country Exports (Percent of Total) （ P80 ， case ）

40. 40 Testing the Heckscher-Ohlin Model –Tests on U.S. Data Leontief paradox –Leontief found that U.S. exports were less capital-intensive than U.S. imports, even though the U.S. is the most capital- abundant country in the world. 4-3 Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher- Ohlin Model

41. 41 Wassily Leontief USA Harvard University Cambridge, MA, USA 1906 - 1999

42. 42 1947 年主要的净出口和净进口行业以及资本 / 劳动 比率（美元 / 工人） 净出口资本 / 劳动净进口资本 / 劳动 1 、批发贸易 7638 农业和渔业 29689 2 、机动车辆 10447 纸和纸箱厂 11123 3 、谷物制品 20752 橡胶 17848 4 、纺织产品：纺织、 编织和印染 10738 榨汁机 12108 5 、铁路运输 21022 食品：罐头、保鲜及冷 冻 15635 6 、海洋运输 15945 其他非铁矿（不包括铜、 铅、锌和铝） 16205 7 、钢制品和轧钢机 15273 原油及天然气 29508 8 、采煤 8491 狩猎器具 14259 9 、特殊的工业机械 10439 原生铜 20080 10 、石油产品 27139 其他原生金属（不包括 铅、铜及铝） 16344

43. 43 Table 4-3: Factor Content of U.S. Exports and Imports for 1962

44. 44 b 、克拉维斯 (Kravis) ， 1956 年 C 、基辛（ Keesing) ， 1966 年 d 、鲍得温 (Baldwin) ， 1971 年 e 、布朗逊 (Branson) 和莫挪尤斯 (Monoyios) ， 1977 年 f 、利默尔 (Leamer) ， 1980 ， 1984 年 g 、斯特思 (Stern) 和马斯库斯 (Maskus) ， 1981 年 h 、萨尔瓦托 (Salvatore) 和巴拉扎什 (Barazesh) ： 1990 年

45. 45 –Tests on Global Data A study by Bowen, Leamer, and Sveikauskas tested the Heckscher-Ohlin model using data for a large number of countries. –This study confirms the Leontief paradox on a broader level.

46. 46 Table 4-4: Testing the Heckscher-Ohlin Model(P84)

47. 47 –Tests on North-South Trade North-South trade in manufactures seems to fit the Heckscher-Ohlin theory much better than the overall pattern of international trade. –The Case of the Missing Trade A study by Trefler in 1995 showed that technological differences across a sample of countries are very large.

48. 48 Table 4-5: Trade Between the United States and South Korea, 1992 (million dollars)(P84 ）

49. 49 Table 4-6: Estimated Technological Efficiency, 1983 (United States = 1)

50. 50 Implications of the Tests –Empirical evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin model has led to the following conclusions: It has been less successful at explaining the actual pattern of international trade. It has been useful as a way to analyze the effects of trade on income distribution.

51. 51 The Heckscher-Ohlin model, in which two goods are produced using two factors of production, emphasizes the role of resources in trade. A rise in the relative price of the labor-intensive good will shift the distribution of income in favor of labor: –The real wage of labor will rise in terms of both goods, while the real income of landowners will fall in terms of both goods. Summary

52. 52 For any given commodity prices, an increase in a factor of production increases the supply of the good that uses this factor intensively and reduces the supply of the other good. The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem predicts the following pattern of trade: –A country will export that commodity which uses intensively its abundant factor and import that commodity which uses intensively its scarce factor. Summary

53. 53 Summary The owners of a country’s abundant factors gain from trade, but the owners of scarce factors lose. In reality, complete factor price equalization is not observed because of wide differences in resources, barriers to trade, and international differences in technology. Empirical evidence is mixed on the Heckscher-Ohlin model. –Most researchers do not believe that differences in resources alone can explain the pattern of world trade or world factor prices.

54. 54 // Units of land used to produce one calorie of food, a TF Units of labor used to produce one calorie of food, a LF 1 Isocost lines Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices Figure 4A-1: Choosing the Optimal Land-Labor Ratio

55. 55 // 1 2 Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices Figure 4A-2: Changing the Wage-Rental Ratio Units of land used to produce one calorie of food, a TF Units of labor used to produce one calorie of food, a LF Slope = - (w/r) 2 Slope = - (w/r) 1

56. 56 FFCC Slope = - (w/r) Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices Figure 4A-3: Determining the Wage-Rental Ratio Land input Labor input

57. 57 FFCC 1 Slope = - (w/r) 1 CC 2 Slope = - (w/r) 2 Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices Figure 4A-4: A Rise in the Price of Cloth Land input Labor input

58. 58 Reading 邹薇 (2002): 论竞争力的源泉 : 从外生比较优 势到内生比较优势, 《武汉大学学报 ( 社会科 学版 ) 》， 1 月

59. 59 Question P87,2 思考：美国经济的不断开放是导致近年来 收入不平等日益扩大的主要原因吗？中国 呢？