1. MDL Requirements for RUA Judy Ghirardelli, David Myrick, and Bruce Veenhuis Contributions from: David Ruth and Matt Peroutka 1

2. Outline Related projects –LAMP –National Blend of Models (including MOS) MDL requirements Validation ideas 2

3. Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) 3 LAMP provides hourly updates of MOS forecasts at stations and on grids from 1-25 hours by utilizing the latest observational data (METAR, lightning, radar), MOS forecasts, output from simple advective models, and geo- climatic data (hi-res topography and relative frequencies). Goal: Improve on MOS forecasts and persistence out to at least 25 hours through rapid infusion of current observational data.

4. Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) FY15 Plans Improve Gridded LAMP Ceiling, Visibility, Temperature, and Dewpoint Prototype of Improved Gridded LAMP Visibility using HRRR model data Prototype of Improved Convection and Lightning: –using MRMS radar, Total Lightning, and HRRR model data –Higher temporal resolution: 1 hour periods for the very short-range period (0-6hrs) Add Gridded LAMP Wind Speed and Direction and Sky cover FY16 Plans Implement extended and improved LAMP convection and lightning grids Implement improved gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility using HRRR Redevelop LAMP temperature and dewpoint, with additional new stations Add gridded LAMP wind gusts 4

5. Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Beyond FY16 Add gridded LAMP storm top guidance Improve station-based LAMP for ceiling and visibility by redeveloping regional equations Develop gridded ceiling and visibility for Alaska Way Beyond FY16 Develop all Gridded LAMP guidance using URMA predictands and RTMA/RUA predictors 5

6. National Blend of Models A Sandy Supplemental Gap Mitigation Project Goal: Develop a nationally consistent set of gridded guidance products for NDFD weather elements based on available model data (NWS and non- NWS), verification, and bias correction techniques while leveraging national computing power.

7. National Blend of Models FY15 Tasks Develop deterministic blends over the CONUS for T, Td, MaxT, MinT, Sky Cover, Wind, RH, AppT Transition PoP12 from OAR development to MDL implementation Begin work on OCONUS domains, starting with Alaska Prototype Blended guidance ready for evaluation FY16 Plans Implement Version 1 deterministic elements (T, Td, MaxT, MinT, Sky Cover, Wind, RH, AppT, PoP12) for days 3-8 over the CONUS (Q1) Evaluate Phase 1 experimental NBM elements at all WFOs (Q2-Q3) Implement Version 2 deterministic elements (PType, 6-h Snow, 24-h Snow, Wind Gust, Predominant Wx, QPF) for days 3-8 over the CONUS and add OCONUS domains (Q4)

8. National Blend of Models Beyond FY16 Develop techniques to blend mesoscale models (incl. HRRR and LAMP) to create deterministic blends for days 1-3 Develop prototype probabilistic elements (beginning with PoP12 and MaxT/MinT)

9. National Blend of Models Verification http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~blend/blender.prototype.php OpenLayers Viewer developed to: Compare candidate analyses Evaluate parallel URMAs Evaluate prototype Blend grids alongside NDFD/WPC/GMOS Provide verification of prototype Blend grids Monthly grid and point scores for the blend are now available in MDL monthly verification

10. RUA Requirements NDFD elements and grid specifications should drive the requirements for the RUA –Including the entire area of forecast responsibility (land, lakes, bays, coastal waters etc.) –Missing areas should be distinguished from zero amounts MDL requires a sufficient sample of RUA reanalyses for statistical post-processing –Current paradigm (annual RTMA upgrades without creating a reanalysis) is not ideal Most important elements: –Precipitation –Ceiling and visibility –Weather (difficult grid, often overlooked)

11. RUA Validation Cross validation experiments What subsets of data do you withhold? –METARs –Mesonets –Satellite –MRMS –Other? 11