1. Anthropogenic Forest Change in the 21 st century A warning to policy makers or a foretaste of things to come?

2. Litany of factors forcing change in tropical forests Burning the unburnable Logging synergizes fire Roadbuilding Fragmentation and edge effects Rising sea surface temperature lifts the cloud bank Deforestation alters local climate Accelerating turnover “Idiopathic” compositional change Compositional instability of the “empty” forest

4. Burning the unburnable

18. Logging synergizes fire

21. Roadbuilding synergizes logging

23. Models of development in the Amazon. Optimistic (top) and nonoptimistic (bottom) scenarios, showing predicted forest degradation by the year 2020. (Black is deforested or heavily degraded, including savannas and other nonforested areas. Red is moderately degraded, yellow is lightly degraded, and green is pristine). Laurance et al. 291 (5503):38-- Science

24. Fragmentation and edge effects add to the risk of fire

32. Rising sea surface temperature implicated in amphibian extinctions

37. Deforestation alters local climate

39. Turnover of tropical forests has accelerated globally

41. “Idiopathic” forest change

44. “Empty” forests are compositionally unstable