1. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop1 Immigrate to NZ Samoan Quota Migration Lottery

2. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop2 The Importance of Selectivity and Duration- Dependent Heterogeneity When Estimating the Impact of Emigration on Incomes and Poverty in Sending Areas: Evidence from the Samoan Quota Migration Lottery Jinjie Cui (Eric) Faculty of Economic Science University of Warsaw 3rd December, 2009

3. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop3 The Planning for today 1. Review main ideas of the paper 2. Analysis of illustrative graphs 3. Conclusions

4. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop4 Review main ideas of the paper (1) 1. Selectivity Problems: Households self-select into emigration. In some emigrant households everyone moves while other emigrant households leave some members behind. Some emigrants choose to return home. 2. To address these selectivity problems by using survey data designed specifically to take advantage of a randomized lottery that determines which applicants to the over-subscribed SQ may immigrate to NZ. This random lottery solves the problem of self-selection into migration. The SQ policy rules control who can accompany the principal migrant which can address the second selectivity problem. The survey module that captures the experiences of the small number of households that have members who once were SQ emigrants but decided to return which can address the third selectivity problem

5. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop5 Review main ideas of the paper (2) - Methodological viewpoint: This paper clearly lays out the additional selectivity issues that the existing literature has not fully addressed and provides guidance for both experimental and non-experimental attempts to look at the impacts of migration. - Substantive viewpoint: The paper provides the first medium-tem experimental estimates of the impact of migration – the impacts here are measured with six years of the eligible household members moving to NZ, and the first estimates which allow for duration dependent heterogeneity whilst addressing selectivity.

6. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop6 Review main ideas of the paper (3) Verifying Randomization

7. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop7 1. Review main ideas of the paper 2. Analysis of illustrative graphs 3. Conclusions

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12. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop12 1. Review main ideas of the paper 2. Analysis of illustrative graphs 3. Conclusions

13. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop13 3. Conclusion The comparisons are complicated by a triple-selectivity problem: first, households self-select into emigration; second, income emigrant households everyone moves; third, some emigrants choose to return home, so their household may be considered as not being affected by emigration. The average effect of migration has been to increase per adult- equivalent consumption and to reduce poverty among household members remaining in Samoa, with income rising by about the same amount as consumption, although the estimated effect for income is not significant. The estimates suggest that income among sending households decays as SQ migrant spend increasing time in NZ, with agricultural income, remittances and subsistence income declining with duration.

14. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop14 Source: Paper: Gibson, John, McKenzie, David & Stillman, Steven. The importance of selectivity and durantion-dependent heterogeneity when estimating the impact of emigration on incomes and poverty in sending areas: evidence form the Samoan Quota Migration Lottery.

15. J.CuiDevelopment Workshop15 Questions??? Thank you for your attention!!!