1. Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Time scales up to seasonal: A contribution to seamless weather-climate prediction Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR Duane Waliser, JPL/Caltech Co-chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group Organized tropical convection and its multi-scale interaction Workshop on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, Met Office Exeter, UK 1-3 December 2010

2. Aqua-planet model intercomparison Courtesy: Dave Williamson and Mike Blackburn

3. Similar precipitation errors in weather and climate models

4. Organized Tropical Convection: Discrete Spectrum of Interaction WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX/ ICTP Workshop 2006

6. Areas of focus Madden-Julian Oscillation & convectively-coupled equatorial waves Monsoons (intraseasonal variability) Easterly waves and tropical cyclones Tropical- extratropical interaction Diurnal cycle

7. Develop a “virtual field Program” approach consiting of existing resources with model, parameterization & forecast improvement as a chief objective. Satellite Observations ( e.g., EOS ) In-Situ Networks ( ARM, CEOP ) GOOS ( e.g., TAO, PRADA, drifters) IOPs ( e.g., VOCALS, T-PARC, AMY ) High-Resolution Deterministic Forecast Models & Global Analyses Research Models [e.g., Regional and Global Cloud(-System) Resolving Models) New/Improved Resources Conceptual Framing + FGGE, GATE, TOGA COARE = YOTC Focus “Year” Virtual IOP May‘08 – Apr’10

8. Key satellite data (e.g., NASA A-Train, TRMM, geostationary) have been identified and funding secured from NASA for the: Giovanni-based dissemination framework – Now Available Multi-sensor CloudSat-Centric A-Train Data Set. YOTC: Satellite Data Ready Late 2010

9. High-resolution, global analysis and forecast data sets are being made available to the community from ECMWF, NCEP and GMAO/NASA. e.g. T799 = 25km ECMWF + diagnostic fields (as of Jan’10, T1279 = 16kms) YOTC: Analyses, Forecasts & Special Diagnostics ECMWF-YOTC Replicated at NCAR in coming months.

10. YOTC Implementation: Collaborative research Weather: initial-value problem (IVP) for climate (seamless prediction)  Transpose-AMIP: 5-day hindcasts of YOTC period(s) DOE/PCMDI CAPT Program with NCAR CAM CMIP5 Transpose AMIP focus on YOTC. Multiple activities via EUCLIPSE MJO & Convectively-Coupled Equatorial Waves  High Resolution (~5-20km) MJO/CCEW hindcasts: UK Cascade, NICAM, GMAO GEOS, GMAO HiRes, CMMAP and GSFC MMFs.  MJO multi-model 20-year hindcast experiment in (CLIVAR AAMP and AMY) to address prediction skill & predictability – extra output for YOTC.  WWRP-WCRP YOTC MJO Task Force Activities GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS):  Extension of GEWEX Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for June-August 2008 of YOTC. Weather: initial-value problem (IVP) for climate (seamless prediction)  Transpose-AMIP: 5-day hindcasts of YOTC period(s) DOE/PCMDI CAPT Program with NCAR CAM CMIP5 Transpose AMIP focus on YOTC. Multiple activities via EUCLIPSE MJO & Convectively-Coupled Equatorial Waves  High Resolution (~5-20km) MJO/CCEW hindcasts: UK Cascade, NICAM, GMAO GEOS, GMAO HiRes, CMMAP and GSFC MMFs.  MJO multi-model 20-year hindcast experiment in (CLIVAR AAMP and AMY) to address prediction skill & predictability – extra output for YOTC.  WWRP-WCRP YOTC MJO Task Force Activities GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS):  Extension of GEWEX Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for June-August 2008 of YOTC.

11. MJO Case Study Experiments 6 periods identified w/ help M. Wheeler ~5-6 “HI-RES” modeling groups committed Miura et al. 2007 Dec 2006 MJO

12. Transpose AMIP CMIP5 Model Evaluations 4 periods; 16 5-day hindcasts in each 9 proposed subprojects – e.g. Cloud Regimes, Williams; MJO, Moncrieff. Modeling Group Pledges EC-Earth (Frank Selten) IPSL (Sandrine Bony) Met Office (Keith Williams) Meteo France (Michel Deque) MIROC (Masahide Kimoto) MPI (Bjorn Stevens) MRI (Masahide Kimoto) NCAR (David Williamson) YOTC Period hadobs.metoffice.com/tamip

13. Science Plan – Completed, WMO Technical Document. Program Support/Information Specialist – (Part-time): US THORPEX Exec Committee funding via U.S. NSF, NOAA, NASA. Web site: http://www.ucar.edu/yotchttp://www.ucar.edu/yotc Implementation Plan Drafted and Discussed/Approved at IP Meeting in Honolulu July 13-15, 2009. WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX YOTC MJO Task Force – 12/2009 YOTC Science Sessions– Fall AGU’08, AMS’09, Spring AGU’09, Fall AGU’09, WP- AGU’10, AGU of Americas 2010, Fall AGU’10, MJO TF Meeting and MJO Workshop, Busan, June 2010. YOTC International Science Symposium, China, May 16-19 2011. YOTC: Progress & Plans

14. The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC): The Scientific Basis - Moncrieff et al. 2010 The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights - Waliser et al. 2010 YOTC papers submitted to BAMS, November 2010

15. Climate Variability & Weather Highlights in YOTC-ECMWF Database

16. Background Conditions & Low Frequency SST W. Indian E. Indian Nino 4 Nino 3 N. Atlantic S. Atlantic Tropical SSTs Year 1 – Modest La Nina Year 2 – Modest El Nino Warm in Year 2 Mostly +DMI Mostly Warm Atlantic

17. Summer Monsoons During YOTC S. America Jose Marengo India BN Goswami 2008 2009 “Normal” 98% AIR Very Large Drought 78% AIR Breaks influenced by ISV Wet-north Dry-south Dry-north/east Wet-south

18. Tropical Cyclone Occurrence During YOTC Boreal Summer Julian Hemming Nargis, landfall over Myanmar, huge storm surge, 100,000 lives 3 landfalls in Mexico Ike - Largest size & Marko - smallest TC ever in this basin. El Nino Modulation Parma-1.8 m Rainfall Rick, 2 nd Strongest In E. Pacific Ever Grace

19. Atmospheric Rivers During YOTC Tropical-Extratropical Interactions Bin Guan 5/08-4/09 5/09-4/10 MJO -> AR -> CA Precip

20. Large-scale convective organization

21. Suite of models

22. Organized Tropical Convection: Discrete Spectrum of Interaction WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX/ ICTP Workshop 2006

23. MCS: Building block of large-scale convective organization

24. Global distribution of MCS from TRMM Tao and Moncrieff (2009)

25. Improved MJO in ECMWF model Bechtold et al (2008)

26. TOGA COARE superclusters simulated by ECMWF model: Explicit convection dominates the convective parametrization Moncrieff & Klinker (1997)

27. MJO in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) Conventional parameterization Superparameterization Khairoutkinov et al (2005) MCS simulated by CRMs embedded in the global model grid cells

28. Advances with MJO in climate models CAM 5 and CCSM 4 have more realistic MJOs, improved ENSO in CCSM - attributed to convective momentum transport & lower- troposphere moistening in an improved Zhang-McFarlane cumulus parameterization CAM 5 and CCSM 4 have more realistic MJOs, improved ENSO in CCSM - attributed to convective momentum transport & lower- troposphere moistening in an improved Zhang-McFarlane cumulus parameterization

29. Propagating slantwise overturning: A model of the most efficient form of organized convection, the MCS Slantwise up- and down-flows separate condensation (W), evaporation (C), and precipitation processes Upscale cascade of momentum and energy This type of organization occurs in 100s km - 1000s km range C

30. Does the MJO involve an upscale cascade of energy and momentum from cumulonimbus through to global scale? MJO: L ~ 10000 km Superclusters: L ~ 1000 km MCS: L ~ 100 km Cumulonimbus: L ~ 10 km

31. MJO skeleton: planetary-scale cloud envelope Neutrally stable interaction between: i) Planetary-scale lower-tropospheric moisture anomalies plus ii) Planetary-scale envelope of synoptic-scale convective activity explains slow eastward phase speed, the unusual dispersion relationship dώ/dk ~ 0, and horizontal quadrupole vortex structure of MJO (Majda & Stechmann, 2010) Neutrally stable interaction between: i) Planetary-scale lower-tropospheric moisture anomalies plus ii) Planetary-scale envelope of synoptic-scale convective activity explains slow eastward phase speed, the unusual dispersion relationship dώ/dk ~ 0, and horizontal quadrupole vortex structure of MJO (Majda & Stechmann, 2010) Consistent with hypothesis that the MJO prefers a moist lower troposphere Consistent with the organized convection hypothesis: that MCS-type heating and momentum transport controls MJO amplitude. c

32. YOTC Implementation: Next Steps YOTC International Science Symposium + 8 th Asian Monsoon Workshop (AMY) Workshop, Beijing, China May 16-19, 2011 Move forward with collaborative research identified at the July 2008 YOTC Implementation Planning Workshop – a multi- year effort. Address multi-agency research funding for multi-year collaborative projects. (MJO, TCs/EWs, monsoon, trop-extratrop, diurnal cycle) Help frame DYNAMO field campaign in 2011 focused on MJO onset in Indian Ocean. YOTC International Science Symposium + 8 th Asian Monsoon Workshop (AMY) Workshop, Beijing, China May 16-19, 2011 Move forward with collaborative research identified at the July 2008 YOTC Implementation Planning Workshop – a multi- year effort. Address multi-agency research funding for multi-year collaborative projects. (MJO, TCs/EWs, monsoon, trop-extratrop, diurnal cycle) Help frame DYNAMO field campaign in 2011 focused on MJO onset in Indian Ocean.

33. Thanks for your attention