1. Social Change THE FUTURE Chaos Theory – Complexity makes predictions difficult – many variables influence future But key variables and “Momentum” Population growth Ecological Degradation Nuclear proliferation

2. Social Change Sanderson and longer term global predictions (US and shorter term later) Warren Wagar’s scenario The ultimate “Core war” – nuclear holocaust within 50 years!! then rebuilding from the Southern Hemisphere

4. Social Change The Challenges: Ecological degradation (Core) Northern hemisphere (mostly) World population growth (SP and P) Southern hemisphere (mostly)

5. Social Change Ecological degradation: Resource depletion (natural resources) Pollution (ozone, warming, etc.) Population: by 2010 at least 3 billion increase, 90%+ in poorest countries

6. Social Change The Club of Rome Report Computer models including many variables Worst case scenario -- back then! Very little has been done since then – so problems have grown worse

7. Social Change 1992 followup study and report “In order to avoid a major collapse...” Scenarios -----

12. Social Change Sanderson page 367 “wildly optimistic” and “the future looks grim” Key is “sharply reducing industrial output” page 366 (US, Europe, Japan/China) very unlikely!!

13. Social Change Nuclear war: increasing pressures, decreasing constraints Israel, India, Pakistan, others?? Core threats and N Korea and Iran US refuses to “take nuclear option off table” fifty-fifty chance??

14. Social Change A World State? Inevitable product of capitalist globalization? What kind of world state? In time to avert crisis?? not likely

15. Social Change The eventual collapse of Capitalism? “Contradictions” that Marx identified still growing at an accelerating rate Strengths and weaknesses of capitalism and socialism (“mixed economies”)

16. Social Change Pitirim Sorokin and much longer cycles? Ideational and sensate culture A new, less “materialistic” culture?? Sanderson says no.

17. Social Change Sanderson’s predictions page 380 We will not solve the big problems (population and resource depletion) and collapse in the next two generations or so is pretty much inevitable. Only question is how devastating and what will follow

18. Social Change The US and shorter term issues (our future!!) A collapsing empire?? Have the MNCs turned on post WW2 middle classes? France, England, US, etc.

19. Social Change Three key issues: 1. Globalization and the US economy 2. The growing oil crisis 3. Imperial overreach (War and Military)

20. Social Change 1. Globalization – search for cheaper labor Paul Craig Roberts on outsourcing destroying the foundations of the Amer econ and with it the American “middle class”

21. Social Change Similar to Reich’s analysis Good jobs – outsourced or foreign workers McJobs - only growth area growing outsourcing here too! Note: decaying education underneath this -- science, math, engineering

22. Social Change 2. Oil (look at online material)

23. Social Change 3. Imperial overreach and war Kirkpatrick Sale article the American empire will collapse Four reasons:

24. Social Change First, environmental degradation. Second, economic meltdown. Third, military overstretch. Finally, domestic dissent and upheaval. Hence no chance to escape the collapse of empire.

25. Social Change Finally, is there a “soft landing”? "How it Began"