1. Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwiss COSMO General Meeting September 22th, 2005 Plans of MeteoSwiss for next year

2. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 1 Outline Planned aLMo improvements aLMo/2 development Projects CN MET NCCR Climate II MAP D-PHASE QNV DAQUA Eurorisk Preview

3. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 2 Planned aLMo improvements Improvement of the assimilation of wind measurements Wind profiles from profilers, VAD, Sodar 10m wind in complex topography Assimilation of new humidity profiles Radiometers GPS-ZTD using tomography methods Snow analysis High resolution (kilometric) information on snow cover from MSG images Coupling with large number of in situ observations Evaluation of the database ECOCLIMAP for surface parameters Improvement of the parametrisation scheme for convection Kain-Fritsch/Bechtold Assessment of turbulence parametrisation in complex topography

4. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 3 Planned aLMo improvements Operationalisation of Radiative upper boundary condition Latent heat nudging Topographic effects on the radiation Verification Improvement of the verification method for precipitation Consolidation of the various verification results First steps towards conditional verification Post-processing Initialisation of a matrix for short term forecasts Automatic weather interpretation using modern classification algorithms Operational chain: Monitoring tool Migration to a new supercomputing platform

5. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 4 aLMo 7km, regional scale Own assimilation cycle 2 daily 72h forecasts Development of aLMo/2 Nested in ECMWF and aLMo/7 IFS/ECMWF, 25km, synoptic scale 4 daily updates aLMo 2.2km, local scale Own assimilation cycle 8 daily 18h forecasts

6. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 5 Rapid update cycle with 3 hourly 18h forecasts (lagged ensemble) „Best“ product never older than 4 hours ( → good diagnostic tool) Indication about predictability of a given weather situation Improve reliability through information redundancy forecast range clock time +18h 00 UTC 01 UTC 3h 03 UTC 04 UTC 06 UTC 07 UTC Foreseen operation plan of aLMo/2

7. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 6 Project CN MET Meteorology and Safety around the nuclear power plants CN = “centrales nucléaires” = nuclear power plants (NPP) Project for the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (HSK) Contract to be signed until end of 2005 for a period of 10 years First phase already started in 2005 Replacement of the actual tools based on climatology around the NPP determined by important met campaigns wind measurement (meteo mast) near each NPP to determine the wind class model centred each NPP’s source using the retrieved wind class Tool based on new measurement network and new model

8. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 7 SwissMetNet Wind Profiler Radiometers The network Dispersion Model HSK aLMo/2 The models RUC + assimilation Project CN MET A network of ground based and remote sensing sites with similar time and space resolution as the model‘s one

9. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 8 National Centre of Competence in Research for Climate Project of the Swiss National Science Foundation Second phase from 2005 to 2008 MeteoSwiss contribution: Climate and operational prediction Goal: Weather- and climate risk management Customer specific risk analyses Customer specific operational forecasts of climate and extreme events Probability Customer specific risk 0 2-2-4 4 6 8-8-6 “Probabilistic predictions combined with an analysis of the past” climatology forecast Project NCCR Climate II

10. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 9 Participation of Process Models: High impact weather prediction Skill assessment of extreme event forecasting systems COSMO-LEPS SRNWP PEPS Model-based climatology will be assembled to characterize high-impact weather events estimate their return periods …enabling also to identify the model biases related to intrinsic model deficiencies calibrate the forecasts (e.g. “COSMO-LEPS EFI”) Development of user-specific products for high impact weather risks Project NCCR Climate II

11. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 10 Project MAP D-PHASE See presentation of Marco Arpagaus 4th phase of MAP, WWRP Instrument FDP Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of heavy precipitation in the Europeans Alps Participation of Process Models: Lead of the MeteoSwiss internal project Utilisation of COSMO-LEPS as an input to hydrologic models Preparation of aLMo/2 for the demonstration period in summer-autumn 07

12. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 11 Project QNV DAQUA See presentation of DWD QNV = Program of emphasis of the DFG Quantitative NiederschlagsVorhersage = quantitative precipitation forecasts MeteoSwiss is participating in the project DAQUA of QNV Combined Data Assimilation with Radar and Satellite Retrievals and Ensemble Modelling for the Improvement of Short Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Contribution of MeteoSwiss Prepare aLMo and LHN for O(1km) grid Perform idealized and real-case simulations to characterize the LHN scheme Use LHN in ensembles produced by DLR

13. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 12 Project Eurorisk Preview See presentation of Andrea Montani EU FP6 project (DG Aeronautics & Space) development of new geo-information services for natural and industrial risks management Participation of MeteoSwiss in the Flash Flood Laboratory Assessment of the value of aLMo/2 to forecast heavy precipitation events Selected regions: Cévennes-Vivarais (F) and Piemonte (I) Impact of the latent heat nudging – Eventually also of the assimilation of GPS-ZTD Verification methodology for heavy precipitation Coupling with hydrological models – probably Laggo Maggiore

14. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 13 Further projects in discussion COST 728 STORMNET Next phase of QNV DAQUA Increased participation to MAP D-PHASE

15. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 14 Priorities of MeteoSwiss Improvement of the precipitation forecasts Higher resolution with focus on the wind quality Improvements in the Alps, e.g. for complex topography

16. philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, 22.9.2005 15 Thank you for your attention !