1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Technology: Stationary Sources and Demand-Side Management Session Two Air Pollution as Climate Forcing: A Workshop Honolulu, Hawaii May 1, 2002 Terry Surles California Energy Commission

2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION How do we Resolve Uncertainties?  Radiative forcing by black carbon is a new issue  Need to have a better understanding of inventory and magnitude of impacts w Synfuels sage  Need to factor BC into the rest of the integrated soup  Inform decision makers and public

3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION World Electricity Generation by Fuel Source (IEA)

4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

5. “Soup” - The Need for Integration  Must incorporate externalities - other environmental parameters, security (post 9/11) public opinion (Luddites, labor, industry, environment)  Governments must respond with support for R&D and enabling regulations  Industry must be supportive  Public must be informed

6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Good Planning and Proper Integration are Critical  Diverse technology portfolio  Act globally, think locally  Integration includes laws, financial instruments and public outreach  We must be prepared to manage a system in transition

7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Carbon Management: An Approach for Integrated Energy Systems R&D Carbon Management Btu GSP < Decarbonization CO 2 Btu < CO 2 atm CO 2 emitted < Sequestration Efficiency

8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Maintaining a Balanced Technology Portfolio  More efficient use of energy is the best way to reduce all pollution  Fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy mix  Renewables will become more viable  Distributed energy resources can develop a viable, economic niche  Nuclear power must remain an option

9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Primary Energy Intensity (UNDP) (Energy Consumption per GDP in 1990 US $ using exchange rates) Megajoules / GDP 1970 19801990 2000 20102020 50 100 150 200 China and centr. planned Asia Former Soviet Union Central and Eastern Europe North America Western Europe reportedprojected

10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators and Freezers in the US

11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California and United States Electricity per Capita Trends Since 1976

12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Reducing Electricity Use by 8% Leads to Additional Environmental Benefits (Emissions Reduction)  2,044 tons CO  2,307 tons NO x  175 tons SO x  263 tons PM 10  600,000 MT CO 2

13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Vision 21: A Microcosm of the Three-legged Stool  New technologies will increase efficiency of central stations  Fuel switching will improve H/C ratio  Sequestration may be a future option w Capture and separation w Geologic and ocean disposal w Terrestrial and ocean uptake w Advanced chem and bio

14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Particulate Matter Concentration from Combustion of Coal, Oil and Natural Gas (US EPA)

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16. COALGAS NUCLEAR WINDPHOTOVOLTAIC Combustion Fuel Cycle Construction CO 2 emiss. [g/kWh] due to 900400420 (1996)(Near future) 200100 CO 2 Emissions Related to Electricity Generation

17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Renewable Technologies can be Inserted Where They Have Value  Wind - dispatchability, regimes  Biomass - gasification, health, environment  PV - local  Hydro - environmentally benign, run-of-river  Geothermal - environmental

18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Externalities of the Biomass Fuel Cycle N 2 O Power gen. CH 4 Power gen. CO 2 Other stages CO 2 Power gen.

19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Nuclear Should Remain an Option BUT  Cost  Waste disposal  Health and safety  Proliferation

20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Act Globally, Think Locally  Be cognizant of local culture and values  Don’t “parachute” technologies into developing countries  Benefits must be obvious to community w Industrial acceptance w Ease of use  Requires a portfolio approach

21. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Government is a Critical Part of the Equation  Financial instruments must be available to overcome “Valley of Death”  Laws should promote the insertion of new, environmentally-acceptable technology w Level the playing field  Should be in the lead for public education and information dissemination

22. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Prepare to Manage a System in Transition  Vision can be one of a “Hydrogen Future” w Integration of transportation and generation systems w Incremental improvements  Insertion of renewables into grid requires changes from central station strategies w Regulations that reduce interconnection burden w Better understanding of grid impacts

23. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION A General Consensus  We have the technologies  We need to reduce uncertainties  We need to be cognizant of public concerns  Climate change issues should be seen as opportunities on the road to sustainability

24. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Driving to a Sustainable Future: The “E”s are Linked  Environment  Energy  Economics  Equity  Education