1. 国际油轮船东协会 国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business Environment Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia-Pacific Environmental Manager Image Courtesy of NORDEN AS 2 nd China Shipbuilding Summit Dalian, 18-20 June 2008

2. 国际油轮船东协会 Presentation overview 1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview 2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment 1.Overview 2.Environment 3.Human element

3. INTERTANKO Today 290 + members operating ca. 2950 ships > 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet > 85% of the chemical carrier fleet 330 + associate members: in oil and chemical tanker related businesses 15 Committees – 5 Regional Panels Principal Offices – London and Oslo Representative Offices in Asia, US and Brussels Observer Status at IMO, IOPC, OECD and UNCTAD

4. 国际油轮船东协会 INTERTANKO – The Voice of the Tanker Industry MISSION To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products. VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future. 领导油轮工业取得业绩上的不断改进和提 高，以努力实现以下目标： 零死亡事故 零海洋污染 零港口国控制滞留率 Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of: Zero fatalities Zero pollution Zero detentions

5. 国际油轮船东协会 INTERTANKO Membership No. members/million dwt No. tankers

6. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview

7. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker development (oil and chemical) m dwt number

8. 国际油轮船东协会 Future for Single Hulls Options today Conversion to - DH Tanker - FSU/FPSO - Bulk Carrier Recycling Continue Trading Continued Trading Subject to (i) Flag state and (ii) Coastal state acceptability after 2010 Uncertainty over -Korea -Japan -China -India -Others

9. 国际油轮船东协会 Investment in new tonnage - Move to Double Hulls More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010 Assumed all SH tankers phased out by 2010

10. 国际油轮船东协会 Average age tankers above 10,000 dwt (1970-2007) Years 6 8 10 12 14 16 1970197319761979198219851988199119941997200020032006

11. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out - tankers above 25,000 dwt m dwt 63 m dwt155 m dwt 358 m dwt

12. 国际油轮船东协会 Single Hull Tanker Phase Out - “uncertainty” post 2010 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 200320042005 2006 200720082009 2010 2011201220132014 2015 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 OPA90

13. 国际油轮船东协会 Where did the Single Hull tankers go in 2007 tankers above 50,000 dwt ‘000 dwt Source: Fearnleys SH Arrivals: 765 1521 618 432 387 1026 1351 1972 NW Europe: 103 arrivals N America: 60 ”

14. 国际油轮船东协会 Share of oil import by hull 2007 ‘000 dwt Source: Fearnleys

15. 国际油轮船东协会 VLCC arriving in AG 1 Dec 2006 – 18 April 2008 No ships Source. PF Bassøe/Pareto Double hull tanker taking over Week number

16. Phase out by segment

17. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker fleet: by hull type and size segment m dwt

18. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers 25,000 – 59,999 dwt, - assume 2.5% trade increase m dwt Number:347 - SH 312Orderbook: 475 m wt: 43.7 - SH 11.8Orderbook: 22.0 Assume all SH tankers phased out by 2010, balanced market end 2006 Overhang from pre 08

19. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers Panamax – assume 2.5% trade growth Number: FleetSH Orderbook Fleet 347 72 134 m dwt: 24.4 4.7 9.8 Overhang from pre 08 m dwt

20. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers Aframax – assume 2.5% trade growth Number FleetSHOrderbook Fleet749104283 m dwt77.39.831.2 m dwt

21. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers Suezmax – assume 2.5% trade growth Number: FleetSHOrderbook Fleet 36341155 m dwt: 54.07.624.5 m dwt

22. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers VLCC – assuming 2.5% trade growth NumberFleetSHOrderbook Fleet505117219 m dwt149.332.067.7 m dwt

23. 国际油轮船东协会 m dwt

24. 国际油轮船东协会 Conclusion SH fleet 40% of the orderbook SH tankers becoming marginal in most size segments – biggest share in VLCC segment SH tankers moving to certain areas (66% Asia 2007) Change in VLCC spot market after SH becoming marginal?

25. State of the Industry

26. 国际油轮船东协会 SHIP OWNEROIL COMPANYSPOKESMAN The rogues of the oil tanker industry

27. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker incidents 2007 by type and accidental pollution 1000 ts oil pollutionNo. incidents Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/ITOPF/various

28. 国际油轮船东协会 Accidental oil pollution into the sea Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys 1000 ts spilt bn tonne-m -45% -33% -82% reduction per tonne miles

29. 国际油轮船东协会 Reported tanker incidents Number Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

30. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker incidents 2007 by type Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

31. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker incidents 2007 by age Incidents/no tankers: 325 incidents 13% 21% 33%

32. State of the Industry 1. Environment

33. 国际油轮船东协会 Tanker Industry’s Environmental Agenda Anti-fouling Systems Ballast Water Management Biofouling Ship Recycling Port Reception Facilities Waste Management Marine Noise Pollution Whale Strikes Spill Prevention and Response Planning VOC reductions Atmospheric Pollution - Revision of MARPOL Annex VI Green House Gas Emissions Environmental Benchmarking

34. 国际油轮船东协会 Reduction options Technical and commercial feasibility assessments Carbon (CO2) indexing Design Index (New); Operational Index (existing) Market Mechanisms (Economic Instruments) Emissions Trading, Carbon Levy (Fuel tax), Incentive Schemes One litre of fuel on a modern VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) moving one tonne of cargo more than 2,500 kilometres - more than twice as far as 20 years ago Air emissions – GHGs

35. 国际油轮船东协会 Vessel Design Index Proposed Index (gram CO2/tonne-mile) = Fuel Cons (g/kW hr) x (ME power (kW) x (1+K 2 )) x C/c DWT (tonne) x Max Speed (n mile/hr) x K 1 K 1 is Coefficient of decreased propulsion efficiency in actual sea conditions K 2 is Coefficient of contribution to CO 2 from aux engines and energy conservation equipment Issues for consideration Application to all ship types ? One or more design conditions ? – e.g. load/ballast One or more sea conditions ? – how weighted ? How measured / normalised / verified ? Air emissions – GHGs

36. State of the Industry 2. Human element

37. 国际油轮船东协会 Human element Availability and Quality Issues But a guiding principle: Human Resources are respected as an asset, not treated as a cost !

38. 国际油轮船东协会 Proud of our people, proud of our ships Proud of our performance – but not complacent ! Human element

39. 国际油轮船东协会 Human element MANNING - IMO Safe Manning Document - ILO Convention 180 - Maritime universities TRAINING - Cadet berths - Tanker Officer Training Standards (TOTS)

40. 国际油轮船东协会 Presentation overview 1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview 2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment 1.Overview 2.Environment 3.Human element

41. 国际油轮船东协会 thank you For more information please visit www.intertanko.com www.intertanko.com tim.wilkins@intertanko.com