1. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S B u r e a u o f R u r a l S c i e n c e s James Walcott

2. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Agroclimatic Characterization and Zoning Methods for Operational Applications: John Sims (operations) Greg Laughlin James Walcott (climate) (agriculture) Tim Brinkley (methods) Presented to WMO Workshop on Climate Analysis and Mapping for Agriculture. Bologna, 14-17 June 2005. Tools that make climate simple for agricultural decision makers

3. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

6. Distribution of grain cropping in Australia

7. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Outline Operational uses Rainfall reliability wizard: grain adaptation Integrated toolset: productivity Growest: pasture forecasts National Monitoring system: drought policy Conclusions/Future extensions

8. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Operational Uses Agricultural adaptation –Crop, livestock decisions Climate risks –Fire risk, storm warning, frost warning Agricultural risks –Pest & disease outbreaks, weed incursions, plague locust Policy delivery –Natural resource management, conservation, rural policy, drought relief, quarantine

9. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Rainfall Reliability Wizard Laughlin et al (2003) Environmental Modelling and Software 18: 49-57 Bureau of Meteorology rainfall grids: 100+ yrs 25 km sq Analysis: means percentiles between seasons within seasons event analysis Display and access: www.brs.gov.au/rainfall

10. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Probability of 50% seasonal mean www.brs.gov.au/rainfall

11. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Reliability of achieving 25 mm/month for June – September

12. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Distribution of available water capacity in soil profile across grain cropping zone

13. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

14. Integrated Toolset ANU Splin (Hutchinson 1990) Interpolations using thin-plate splines Independent factors such as altitude Commercial in confidence

16. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Livestock density in 2001

17. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Livestock density Low Medium High Low Medium High Index of primary productivity Integrated Toolset: relating primary productivity to livestock density

18. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S RadiationTemperature Moisture Fitzpatrick and Nix (1970) – GrowEst Nix (1981) Hutchinson, Nix and McMahon (1992) Brinkley et al (2005) GrowEst: simple estimates of plant growth Major climate drivers in plant growth GI = LI x TI x MI Growth Index TI - Temperature index RI - Radiation index MI - Moisture index

19. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

21. Analyses Mapping Regional Reports The National Monitoring System

22. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Conclusions Also consider flexible, pragmatic systems that: Analyse data rapidly Provide simple outputs Respond to wide range of requests Use our skills to provide advice on output Future Weather Wizard (frost, growing degree days, vernalisation) Climate change/adaptation

23. S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S … not … the simplicity this side of complexity, but … the simplicity on the other side of complexity. Oliver Wendell Holmes Oliver Wendell Holmes