1. Chapter 6 Public Opinion

3. Public Opinion: Will of the People Democratic governments should reflect the will of the people. How do we know what the public wants? Where does public opinion originate? Average citizens do not always have vast information about issues or elections, yet can form opinions about such matters. What factors influence public opinion in the presence or absence of relevant information?

4. Understanding Public Opinion Public opinion: the values and attitudes that people have about issues, events, and personalities. Values (or beliefs): a person’s basic orientations to politics. Political ideology: a cohesive set of beliefs that form a general philosophy about government. Attitude (or opinion): specific view about a particular issue, personality or event

5. Fundamental Values Most Americans subscribe to these principles

6. Fundamental Values Explained Fundamental Values Explained: Liberty: freedom from governmental control. Equality of opportunity: people should have the freedom to use whatever talents and wealth they have to reach their fullest potential. Democracy: a system of rule that permits citizens to play a significant part in the governmental process, usually through the election of key public officials.

7. Political Ideologies Ideology: set of underlying orientations, ideas, beliefs Liberalism and conservatism are two main political ideologies in the United States today. Ideology is associated but not synonymous with partisanship. One may be conservative or liberal no matter what parties happen to exist in a given country or point in time.

8. Political Ideologies: Liberalism and Conservatism Liberalism and Conservatism Defined: Liberalism: those who generally support governmental intervention in the economy and more economic equality; expansion of federal social services; and greater concern for consumers and the environment. Conservatism: those who generally support the social and economic status quo and believe that a large and powerful government poses a threat to citizens’ freedom.

9. Political Ideologies: Liberalism Domestic issues –Government involvement in economy to protect workers, expand social services –Advocate for poor minorities, women, consumers, and the environment –Separation of church and state Foreign affairs –Oppose sending American troops to influence the domestic affairs in other countries –Support for international organizations

10. Profile of a Liberal: Senator Elizabeth Warren

11. Political Ideologies: Conservatism Domestic issues –Oppose social and economic engineering, such as wealth redistribution and affirmative action –Favor light business and industry regulation, low taxes for higher earners, traditional family structures, and school prayer Foreign affairs –Support stronger military power and spending –Less supportive of international organizational efforts and entanglements

12. Profile of a Conservative: Senator Chuck Grassley

13. Political Ideologies: Other Ideologies Other Ideologies Defined: Libertarianism: a political ideology that emphasizes freedom and voluntary association with small government. Socialism: a political ideology that emphasizes social ownership and strong government.

14. How We Form Political Opinions Ideology plays a role. –Not all issues are clearly defined ideologically. –Most citizens are especially ideological. –Many issues can be framed in multiple ways. Or, actually have multiple dimensions that could manifest as liberal or conservative.

15. Americans’ Shifting Ideology, 1972–2012

16. Political Values Political socialization: the process through which underlying political beliefs and values are formed. There are “agents of socialization”: social institutions, including families and schools, that help to shape individuals’ basic political beliefs and values. Our underlying beliefs tend to shape how we approach new information.

17. Influences on Our Political Values Family: stories we hear growing up are highly influential when narratives are coherent and consistent. Social groups: people with similar traits or backgrounds have similar life experiences that shape their understanding of the political world.

18. Influences on Our Political Values: Perception of Fair Treatment across Racial Groups

19. Influences on Our Political Values: Treatment Blacks Receive

20. National Security Opinion Differences between Men and Women The Gender Gap: men and women often see issues differently, potentially due to their different life experiences.

22. Influences on Our Political Values: Religion Religion –Religion can be powerful if it repeats stories, ceremonies, and rituals that tell its members about who they are and how they should see the world.

23. Influences on Our Political Values: Social and Political Context Lifetime social and political context –Peace, wartime, stability or not –Economic prosperity and downturns –Race and gender relations –Recency or distance from immigrant experience

24. Political Knowledge Political knowledge –Most Americans have limited political knowledge. –Political knowledge is associated with levels of efficacy and trust in government. Those with limited political knowledge –May rely on sound bites as facts –Information intimidation: complicated topics –Time cost: do not want to or have time to study issues or contests

25. Shaping Public Opinion Three very powerful sources of influence over public opinion: –Political leaders –Private groups –The media

26. Government and the Shaping of Public Opinion

27. Shaping Public Opinion: Government Government –Presidential administrations have enormous capacities to shape public opinion Stress certain issues and not others Influence how departments depict issues Use the “bully pulpit” –Rally around the flag effect The media, and the public, will turn attention to issues that the administration advances

28. Shaping Public Opinion: Private Groups Private groups –Interest groups, churches, community organizations –Very deep and wide reach into society –Deploy specific knowledge effectively –Through press releases, blogs, and other efforts can communicate their messages broadly to reach like-minded individuals easily

29. The Media and Public Opinion

30. Shaping Public Opinion: Media Media –Are very effective at telling Americans what issues are important –Can, at times, frame what it means for a politician to be successful –Can sometimes also shape how people understand the meaning of a conflict

31. Measuring Public Opinion Polling must meet certain requirements: Random Sample: a method used by pollsters to select a representative sample in which every individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected as a respondent. –Random digit dialing generates a random sample by selecting respondents at random from a list of 10-digit telephone numbers.

32. Measuring Public Opinion: Sample Size Other requirements: Sample Size: A sample must be large enough to provide an accurate representation of the population. –All samples have sampling error (or a margin of error): polling error that arises based on the small size of the sample.

33. Measuring Public Opinion: Survey Design Proper survey design must also consider: Question wording: can generate measurement error. –Survey questions must be worded precisely or this can jeopardize the reliability of the survey results. Poor question format, faulty ordering of questions, poor vocabulary, ambiguity of questions, or questions with built-in biases can also affect the reliability of the results. sample size, sample technique, medium (online, robocall, live interviews) http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/ipoll/abstract.cfm?d ownload=1&start=download&id=102191&archno=USMI2008- NATELEC&label=&sortBy=DESC&keyword=USMI2008- NATELEC&keywordOptions=1&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any& organization=Any&fromDate=&toDate=&abstract

34. It Depends on How You Ask

35. How You Ask THE SITUATION: The public’s desire for tax cuts can be hard to measure. In 2000, pollsters asked what should be done with the nation’s budget surplus and got different results depending on the specifics of the question. THE QUESTION: President Clinton has proposed setting aside approximately two- thirds of an expected budget surplus to fix the Social Security system. What do you think the leaders in Washington should do with the remainder of the surplus? VARIATION 1: Should the money be used for a tax cut, or should it be used to fund new government programs? VARIATION 2: Should the money be used for a tax cut, or should it be spent on programs for education, the environment, health care, crime fighting, and military defense?

36. Measuring Public Opinion: Social Desirability and Selection Bias When polls are wrong: Social desirability effects: –the effect that results when respondents in a survey report what they expect the interviewer wishes to hear rather than what they believe. Selection bias: polling error that arises when the sample is not representative of the population being studied, which creates errors in overrepresenting or underrepresenting some opinions.

37. Measuring Public Opinion: Push Polling and Bandwagon Effect When polls are wrong: Push polling: –a polling technique in which the questions are designed to shape the respondent’s opinion. Bandwagon effect: –a shift in electoral support to the candidate whom public opinion polls report as the front-runner

38. Public Opinion and Democracy Why don’t leaders always follow public opinion? –How strongly do people hold opinions? –The structure of American government –Governing often involves compromise.

39. A Case Study

40. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/presiden t/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.htmlhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/presiden t/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html In a small group of 2-3 students, find out why the polls got it so wrong. Write a group essay of 100 – 200 words explaining what you discover Then go here. Be able to discuss what the article says. http://www.usnews.com/news/the- report/articles/2015/09/28/why-public-opinion-polls- are-increasingly-inaccuratehttp://www.usnews.com/news/the- report/articles/2015/09/28/why-public-opinion-polls- are-increasingly-inaccurate

41. WHO ARE AMERICANS?

45. Public Opinion and Democracy

46. Public Opinion Poll: Q1 Do you agree or disagree that American policy and laws reflect the preferences and opinions of most American people most of the time? a) Strongly agree (does reflect American opinion) b) Agree c) Disagree d) Strongly disagree (doesn’t reflect American opinion)

47. Public Opinion Poll: Q2 Do you think people rely primarily on their feelings or specific facts when determining their own personal positions on issues and candidate preferences? a)Mostly feelings b)Mostly facts

48. Public Opinion Poll: Q3 Some political leaders are more concerned with public opinion than others. Some elected officials lean more heavily on their own judgment rather than popular sentiment. Which do you believe is more appropriate in a democracy? a)Political leaders should be most concerned with public opinion and govern according to mass policy preferences. b) Political leaders should be less concerned with public opinion and govern based on their judgment.

49. Public Opinion Poll: Q4 Which of the following do you think has had the greatest influence on your political values? a)Family b)Social groups (racial, religious, national) c)Education d)Political conditions and experiences

50. Public Opinion Poll: Q5 Thinking about your two closest friends, would you say your views on political topics are: a)Very similar b)Some similar some different c)Very different

51. Following this slide, you will find additional images, figures, and tables from the textbook.