1. THORPEX THORPEX (THeObserving system Research and Predictability Experiment) was established in 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress. THORPEX is part of the World Weather Research Programme, under the auspices of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), and is a key research component of the WMO Natural Disaster Reduction and Mitigation Programme. high- impact weather forecasts THORPEX is an international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy and utility of high- impact weather forecasts up to two weeks ahead. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/CD_ROM_international_science_plan_v3.pdf History What is THORPEX?

2. TIGGE TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a major element of the THORPEX research programme: 1.Enhancing collaboration on ensemble prediction, internationally and between operational centres and universities. 2.Supporting research on weather forecasting, especially applications of ensemble forecasting. 3.Enabling new probabilistic forecast products for a future Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS). MCGE EPS at ECMWF EPS at CMA EPS at JMA EPS at KMA EPS at XXX TIGGE has made it possible to construct a new ensemble, that is Multi-Center Grand Ensemble

3. GIFS-TIGGE Products at JMA Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency (MRI/JMA) has developed two types of GIFS-TIGGE products and will provide them to Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia. 1.Tropical cyclone track predictions in the western North Pacific 2.Early warning products for extreme weather events

4. URL: http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/ Website Main Page Send email to thorpex@mri- jma.go.jp to get ID and password thorpex@mri- jma.go.jp

5. List of available products - TC track - Deterministic forecastEnsemble forecast Strike ProbabilityPoint Strike Probability

6. Deterministic TC track forecast Track forecasts from ECMWF, JMA, MSC and NCEP are available as of today. Observed track Six-hourly plotted Red: 0-24h forecast Green: 24-48h forecast Purple: 48-72h forecast Blue: 72-96h forecast

7. Ensemble TC track forecast Track forecasts from CMA(ensemble size is 15), ECMWF(51), JMA Typhoon EPS(11), JMA One-week EPS (51), KMA(17), MSC(21), NCEP(21), STI(9) and UKMO(24) are available as of today. Ensemble TC track forecast by all ensemble member of all centers. (Ensemble TC track forecast by each center is also available)

8. Strike probability map Probability that the center of a storm will pass within 120 km of a location during a 96 hour time interval is shown. Contour levels shown are 5-20% (green), 20-40% (yellow), 40-60% (orange), 60-80% (red) and 80-100% (purple).

9. Point strike probability map Time series of strike probability at a selected location (city). Y-axis on the left shows the strike probability at city ILAGAN, and the Y-axis on the right shows the distance between ILAGAN and a TC center. Time

10. Select the city and cyclone name on the website

11. Typhoon track prediction by MCGE Good exampleBad example Typhoon Megi initiated at 1200 UTC 25 th Oct. 2010 Observed track Typhoon Conson initiated at 1200 UTC 12 th Jul. 2010 It should be noted that even in the forecasts by all ensemble members of all ensemble prediction systems, several cases miss the best track scenario.

12. For more information… About products: http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/readme/readme.html (need ID and password) Verification results: Yamaguchi, M., Nakazawa, T. and Hoshino, S. (2012), On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 138: 2019–2029. About THORPEX http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/WMO_TD1258e.pdf About TIGGE http://tigge.ecmwf.int/documents/additional/TIGGE_leaflet_2010.pdf Bougeault, Philippe, and Coauthors, 2010: The thorpex interactive grand global ensemble. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1059–1072.