1. Projected changes to freshwater aquaculture Presented by Timothy Pickering

2. This presentation is based on Chapter 11 ‘Vulnerability of aquaculture in the tropical Pacific to climate change’ in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011. The authors of Chapter 11 are: Timothy Pickering, Ben Ponia, Cathy Hair, Paul Southgate, Elvira Poloczanska, Luc Della Patrona, Antoine Teitelbaum, Chadag Mohan, Michael Phillips, Johann Bell and Sena De Silva Authors

3. Freshwater aquaculture in the Pacific should benefit from climate change Plans to increase future production and livelihoods from freshwater aquaculture will stay on track Freshwater aquaculture is an adaptation to effects of climate change on coastal fisheries Key messages

4. Current and projected freshwater aquaculture production

5. Food security Culture of cheap freshwater fish for food security is gaining a higher priority ‘Drivers’ are increasing populations and a decline in the coastal fisheries

6. Pond aquaculture is one of 3 major strategies, along with:  low-cost inshore FADs  increased landings of Small-pond aquaculture will be least in quantity But products have high quality (freshness, nutrition) and availability Food security

7. Recirculating Red Tilapia – Cage Culture Aquaponics Intensive Intensive flow-through Semi-intensive culture in earthen ponds Tilapia Lined ponds

8. Brackish ponds Milkfish Freshwater ponds Cage culture

9. Integrated taro/prawn pond culture Monoculture Macrobrachium rosenbergii Hatchery-based culture Capture-based culture Macrobrachium lar Freshwater prawn

10. SME approaches to food security Household-level aquaculture for subsistence is only viable with on-going government support Challenge is to add a layer of viable SME-scale commercial-market aquaculture for peri-urban markets

11. Existing tilapia production Difficult to estimate Many small-scale farmers in remote places with repeated (unmeasured) small harvests

12. Tilapia production Tilapia aquaculture continues to expand in the region Fiji harvests faround 100 – 300 tonnes PNG reports 100 tonnes per year to FAO, but number of farms is 10,000 – 20,000 Samoa now has 25 farms Solomon Islands has an Inland Aquaculture project to support emerging farmers Hatchery established in Vanuatu

13. Livelihoods Tilapia

14. Milkfish Production 30 – 80 tonnes per year in intensive systems in Guam 5 – 15 tonnes per year in Kiribati Four farms now operate in Palau Capture-based culture trials underway in Fiji, Solomon Islands and Tonga

15. Freshwater prawn production Fiji: 25 tonnes per year Vanuatu has established a hatchery Other PICTs are interested (PNG, Cook Islands). PICTs could produce several hundred tonnes per year

16. Vulnerability of freshwater aquaculture

17. Projected climates changes Source: Lough et al. (2011), Ganachaud et al. (2011)

18. Temperature Spatial variation in temperature increase 2035 2100 2050* * Based on B1 2100 Source: Lough et al. (2011)

19. Rainfall Spatial variation in rainfall (winter) 2035 2100 Source: Lough et al. (2011)

20. Greater climatic variation Extremes will become more extreme Expect the unexpected! (droughts, too) Source: Gehrke et al. (2011) Flows in Tontouta River, New Caledonia, after cyclones

21. Tilapia, freshwater prawn Tilapia aquaculture has a low vulnerability and may benefit from climate change Temperatures suitable for tilapia and prawn farming will extended higher latitudes and altitudes

22. Higher rainfall should increase the number of sites suitable for inland aquaculture But some areas may become more prone to flooding DFF (Fiji) Ltd Prawn Farm Cyclone Mick, December 2009 Tilapia, freshwater prawn

23. Increased risk of stratification from higher temperatures causing de-oxygenation; pond aeration may be needed Greater heat stress, and incidence of pathogens Tilapia, freshwater prawn

24. Milkfish Increased temperatures will extend the geographical range of spawners and season for fry collection Supply of fry may be at risk from effects of ocean acidification on larval behaviour

25. Summary of vulnerability

26. Key adaptations

27. How should we adapt? Build fish ponds to avoid more severe floods Photo: Avinash Singh

28. How should we adapt? Prepare to increase flushing and aeration of ponds to combat stratification Photo: Jacques Patrois

29. Develop freshwater aquaculture for food security and livelihoods Limit farming of tilapia to catchments where tilapia are already established in the wild or where there is a chronic shortage of fish How should we adapt?

30. Conclusions Freshwater pond aquaculture is likely to be favoured by climate change

31. Conclusions Aspirations for significant future production and livelihoods from inland aquaculture can be realised