1. CRed Carbon Reduction 1 Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich Rotary Club of Corby Annual Lecture 5 th November 2009 The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future for our Children: The Hard Choices Facing Us Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

2. CRed Carbon Reduction How much Energy is there in different fuels? Understanding Energy MegaJoulesYogurtskWh Yogurt85000 calories (85kcal) 0.36510.1 1 cubic meter gas39.6106.810.8 1 litre petrol32.990.19.1 1 litre diesel35.797.89.9 1 litre LPG25.068.67.0 1 litre heating oil35.396.69.8 2

3. CRed Carbon Reduction 3 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

4. CRed Carbon Reduction 4 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

5. CRed Carbon Reduction 5 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

6. CRed Carbon Reduction 6 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: “ The Great Global Warming Swindle”! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years

7. CRed Carbon Reduction 7 Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Ice Age Last Interglacial 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 7 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record

8. CRed Carbon Reduction 8 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity

9. CRed Carbon Reduction 9 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 9

10. CRed Carbon Reduction 10 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? China

11. CRed Carbon Reduction 11

12. CRed Carbon Reduction r Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

13. CRed Carbon Reduction 13 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Import Gap

14. CRed Carbon Reduction 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 14

15. CRed Carbon Reduction 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 15

16. CRed Carbon Reduction 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

17. CRed Carbon Reduction 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

18. CRed Carbon Reduction 18 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

19. CRed Carbon Reduction 19 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

20. CRed Carbon Reduction 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

21. CRed Carbon Reduction 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

22. CRed Carbon Reduction 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

23. CRed Carbon Reduction 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

24. CRed Carbon Reduction 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

25. CRed Carbon Reduction 25 Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

26. CRed Carbon Reduction 26 Performance of a Solar Thermal Hot Water System

27. CRed Carbon Reduction 27 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year [14 th /408], in Eaton Rise District of Norwich ~ 3000 kWh West Norfolk, 6082 kWh [391 st /408] per year

28. CRed Carbon Reduction 28 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

29. CRed Carbon Reduction 29 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum

30. CRed Carbon Reduction There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security

31. CRed Carbon Reduction 31 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

32. CRed Carbon Reduction 32 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

33. CRed Carbon Reduction 33 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

34. CRed Carbon Reduction 34 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

35. CRed Carbon Reduction Case 1 Add extra 200mm Loft insulation Saving 2.4% Fit condensing boiler – no change of Loft Insulation saves 20.1%

36. CRed Carbon Reduction 36 Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

37. CRed Carbon Reduction 2 family cars small petrol ~ 10000 miles medium diesel ~ 12000 miles Medium size Detached House Gas central heating Cavity Insulation Double Glazing 100mm Loft Insulation Ordinary (non-condensing) boiler 1 holiday to Mallorca for family of 4 Where do we use energy in our homes? 37

38. CRed Carbon Reduction 38 The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

39. CRed Carbon Reduction No data Pilot Lights on only on 3 heaters – additional cost £9 per week Pilot lights off Pilot Lights turned off during week Saving Energy in your Church and School or Home Weekly Energy Data from St Paul’s Church Tuckswood 39 One heater only on Turning of pilot lights from April to October will save ~ £200 a year

40. CRed Carbon Reduction 40 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. Residents of Reepham in Norfolk got together as a community to order bulk loft insulation and cavity wall insulation and drove down the costs by bulk ordering through working as a community. They are now going on to ever better things.

41. CRed Carbon Reduction 41 1.33 billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase (2002-05) Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years (2002 – 2005)

42. CRed Carbon Reduction A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness 3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy 4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting 2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions

43. CRed Carbon Reduction What can you do in your school What can you do at home Where are the biggest savings in Energy and carbon emissions? Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK and will increasingly affect us all in next 10 years Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming Otherwise we may have to choose whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat our home. What can we do? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 （ 604-531BC ）中国古代思想家、哲学家 “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” （直译）： “ 如果你不改变，你将止步于原 地。 ” WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be on WEB from tomorrow >follow Academic Resources Link

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45. CRed Carbon Reduction A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit 节流阀 Throttle Valve 冷凝器 绝热 Condenser Heat rejected 蒸发器 为冷却进行热提 取 Evaporator Heat extracted for cooling 高温高压 High Temperature High Pressure 低温低压 Low Temperature Low Pressure Compressor 压缩器 45

46. CRed Carbon Reduction Absorption Heat Pump Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated 节流阀 Throttle Valve 冷凝器 绝热 Condenser Heat rejected 蒸发器 为冷却进行热提 取 Evaporator Heat extracted for cooling 高温高压 High Temperature High Pressure 低温低压 Low Temperature Low Pressure 外部热 Heat from external source W ~ 0 吸收器 热交换器 Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger 46

47. CRed Carbon Reduction A 1 MW Adsorption chiller 1 MW 吸附冷却器 Reduces electricity demand in summer Increases electricity generated locally Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually Uses Waste Heat from CHP provides most of chilling requirements in summer 47