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MICHELE FRANCIONI CEO RINA SERVICES Mare Forum Monaco, 25 th September 2015
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Calm seas ahead for global shipping industry
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Source: Clarckson “WFM”, “SRO”, “WSO“, Trade Winds Today shipping trends OVERSUPPLY STILL TO BE ABSORBED LOWERING OF OIL PRICE YARD CAPACITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALSO IN 2015 ONWARDS EARLY SCRAP MAY ACCELERATE THE OVERSUPPLY ABSORPTION RECOVERY IN THE OIL AND PRODUCT SECTOR LOW RATES FOR DRY BULK SLOWDOWN IN LNG-FUELED SHIP DEVELOPMENT CHINESE YARDS CAPACITY: - 25% IN 2015 YARDS NEED TO FIND NEW SECTORS TO FILL CAPACITY OTHER THAN DRY BULK NEW BUILDING PRICE DECREASE
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Short term: Oversupply under absorption Medium term: Slight trades recover Pressure on the environment Long term: Asia Centric landscape by 2030 FOCUS ON: Energy efficiency programs Investing in diversification and growing economies Looking ahead Source: Clarkson, RINA Assessment Document
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If it’s the right time to invest…
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Orderbook: from 24% in 2013 to 17% Sept. 2015 Highest decrease Handysize Most stable segment: Cape Demolitions: slightly decreased FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND To Bulk sector? M DWT NB PRICES M USD CAGR+ 5.6%
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Orderbook: from 24% in 2013 to 17% Sept. 2015 Highest decrease Handysize Most stable segment: Cape Demolitions: slightly decreased FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND M DWT NB PRICES M USD CAGR+ 5.6% To Bulk sector?
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To Oil&Product tanker sector? Orderbook: constant growth in the period Main demand for the biggest size and for product (MR1 & MR2) Demolition rate always low FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND M DWT NB PRICES CAGR + 2.4%
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To Oil&Product tanker sector? Orderbook: constant growth in the period Main demand for the biggest size and for product (MR1 & MR2) Demolition rate always low FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND M DWT NB PRICES CAGR + 2.4%
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Or to Container sector? Orderbook: over 50% of the fleet in 8000+ segment Equal or even lower than demolition rate in <3000 segment Economies of scale FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND M GT NB PRICES PRICE TREND AFFECTED BY ORDERS PEAKS CAGR + 6.3%
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Or to Container sector? Orderbook: over 50% of the fleet in 8000+ segment Equal or even lower than demolition rate in <3000 segment Economies of scale FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND M GT NB PRICES PRICE TREND AFFECTED BY ORDERS PEAKS CAGR + 6.3%
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Ro-Ro and Car Carriers A confirmation Fleet: stable with growth in car carrier only Need for more specialized vessels FLEET TREND M GT
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LNG ships A confirmation Orderbook: growth from 26% to 38% in the period last year saw a high in orders with low price of oil No demolitions FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND M GT
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Offshore Still interesting, but… Oil price falling: Deep Water Exploration Investments at risk slowdown in investments in exploration technologies As a consequence less demand for OSV and Supply FLEET & ORDER BOOK TREND
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2009 - 2015 500,000 «lower berths» 23 million passengers CAGR 09 -15: 4.4% Growth of «lower berths» (x 1.000) Growth of passengers (x 1.000) Cruise ships A growing market
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Cruise ships Medium-term forecast 2015 - 2020 ± 28 million passengers (5 millions from China) Growth of passengers (x 1.000)
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Superyacht Fleet The year of recovery? 2009 - 2018 Over 1650 Yachts CAGR 09 -18: 3.8%
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