1. 1 Overview of Updates to Evacuation Zones Last Revised: Apr 2013

2. 2 What is Different? 2010 SLOSH Model and 2011 Storm Surge Model accounts for bigger, slower storms (represents recent storm characteristics) Datum matches current standard Resolution is 4 times greater Best available land elevation data (LiDAR) Storm Surge Inundation Map SLOSH Model 2010 Census New population estimates for geographic areas at risk Hurricanes Irene and Sandy Real events that can inform actual behavior, sheltering demand, mode of transit, and clearance times

3. Maximum Surge Heights by Storm Bearing WNWNWNNWNNNENE Category 112.612.110.78.86.65 Category 220.92020.116.511.48.1 Category 326.627.627.423.41711.3 Category 432.433.9 30.621.714.6 Storm bearings 3

4. Potential Building Impacts: Cat 1 Hurricanes Buildings potentially impacted by worst-case surge based on hurricane bearing Gerritsen Beach Coney Island Gravesend 4

5. Irene – NNE bearing 5 Sandy – WNW bearing (NW at landfall) Predicted storm tracks for both storms 70 hours before landfall

6. Bearing has significant effect of storm surge Allows for more flexibility in evacuation (less likely to over- or under- evacuate) Storm track predictions are more accurate than predictions of intensity Bearing Based Proposal

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8. 8 Facility2012 Zone AZone BZone CTotal Hospitals621321 Nursing homes22122761 Adult care facilities178934 Facility2013 Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5Zone 6Total Hospitals44069225 Nursing homes2368619971 Adult care facilities174276339

9. Finalizing the zone boundaries Identify HCFs within the new zones Planning & education 9 Next Steps