1. National Missile Defense Some Thoughts

2. Star Wars Revisited? Star Wars introduced by Reagan in the 80’s –Shield versus Mutual Assured Destruction Technical argument against –Won’t work Treaty Argument –Destabilizes a working deterrent, Mutual Destruction

3. Mutual Destruction Don’t attack me because I have doomsday capability –Even after I am dead I will kill you Seems bizarre, but worked –Soviet Union and the US did not go to nuclear war Was very expensive –Money, lots of nuclear waste Scary –Nation was always on 30 minute aleart

4. Was MAD real? Could the US or USSR actually destroy each other –Dr Walter Roberts, founder of National Center for Atmospheric Research claimed Sufficient Weapons available in 1946 to destroy the world The phenomena was called Nuclear Winter –Even if the blasts did not do it, the Nuclear Winter would –Weapons available by the 1960’s far larger than 1946

5. By 1963 Atmospheric Testing Banned Initial testing was mostly above ground –First in Navada –Later in evacuated islands in Pacific Hydrogen Bombs >100 megatons tested in late 50’s By early 60’s atmospheric testing was considered too risky Later all testing was cancelled

6. Reagan Introduced Star Wars Was it a reaction to the tension and horrors of MAD? –Or did it introduce new horrors? –Concept is that Nation that had a shield might be free to attack Nuclear Winter said –Doesn’t matter who attacks, both sides lose –This was one of the main drivers of Peristroika

7. What did Gorbachev Say Gorbachev said, we used to believe that there would be a war, and we would win –However, then there was Chernobyl –We now knew that in nuclear war there would be no winners –We had to change our philosophy, i.e. the Soviet Union had to change its philosophy Gorbychev’s book was startling to many of us –We were taught that the SU was the evil empire –Gorbychev was rational in the book and easy to undertand –He said, some in my country worry about doctrine, they should instead worry about empty shelves

8. Star Wars Made Sense but could not work Think..no MAD –If they attacked we would simply stop the rockets Isn’t this wonderful!! –No need for MAD because the shield would protect us The problem –It did not work

9. What is different today? A lot of technology is more advanced –Better Computing Radar Space Equipment Rockets –Needs are different No Soviets, but lots of other threats New states less afraid of war

10. Why are new states less afraid Soviet Union suffered massive losses in World Wars –More than 20 million dead in WWII –Stalin also killed 20 million –Population wanted peace and goods New States of Middle East –Don’t want goods –Have not suffered in World War –Believe that individual death is OK because there is a win for future generation

11. So Why Star Wars Again MAD doesn’t work –We can’t destroy them with nukes without causing nuclear winter We have many assets in space Is there another option?

12. Why not Star Wars Opponents say that it cannot work Arguments against it are simple and likely accurate

13. What is the truth ??? Information is hard to get The opponents are not on the inside The insiders have a financial interest Lot’s of us are skeptical of the military