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ERCOT Staff Analysis of Model Treatment of Holidays
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2 If a single occurrence of a holiday is available in the load research data and a holiday indicator variable is used in the model, a constant holiday adjustment is calculated and applied to all future occurrences of the holiday … is this the best way to model holidays considering this data limitation? – Models developed based on two holiday methods Method 1: Treat holiday as Sunday (no indicator variables used, and no single occurrence holidays) Method 2: Separate holiday indicator variables and constant holiday adjustments are created – For Method 2, only 2005 holidays were coded as holidays All 2004 holidays were excluded from Method 2 model building Model results for 2004 holidays simulates forecasting holidays based on one 2005 occurrence –Method 1 and 2 model results for 2004 holidays were compared to Load Research Means for those days (R2 and graphically) –Note: Thanksgiving, Friday after Thanksgiving, and Christmas Holiday were the only holidays available for 2004 Methodology
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R 2 Comparison Holiday Methods vs Load Research Holiday as Sunday is better for 5 of the 6 totals for Profile Types Holiday as Sunday is better for 30 of the 48 Profile Types/WZones
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RESHIWR
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5 RESHIWR_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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6 RESHIWR_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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7 RESHIWR_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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8 RESHIWR_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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9 RESHIWR_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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10 RESHIWR_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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11 RESHIWR_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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12 RESHIWR_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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13 RESHIWR_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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14 RESHIWR_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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15 RESHIWR_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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16 RESHIWR_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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17 RESHIWR_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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18 RESHIWR_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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19 RESHIWR_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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20 RESHIWR_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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21 RESHIWR_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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22 RESHIWR_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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23 RESHIWR_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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24 RESHIWR_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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25 RESHIWR_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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26 RESHIWR_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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27 RESHIWR_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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28 RESHIWR_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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RESLOWR
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30 RESLOWR_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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31 RESLOWR_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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32 RESLOWR_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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33 RESLOWR_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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34 RESLOWR_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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35 RESLOWR_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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36 RESLOWR_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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37 RESLOWR_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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38 RESLOWR_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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39 RESLOWR_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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40 RESLOWR_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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41 RESLOWR_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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42 RESLOWR_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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43 RESLOWR_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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44 RESLOWR_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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45 RESLOWR_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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46 RESLOWR_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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47 RESLOWR_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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48 RESLOWR_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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49 RESLOWR_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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50 RESLOWR_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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51 RESLOWR_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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52 RESLOWR_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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53 RESLOWR_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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BUSHILF
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55 BUSHILF_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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56 BUSHILF_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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57 BUSHILF_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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58 BUSHILF_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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59 BUSHILF_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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60 BUSHILF_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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61 BUSHILF_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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62 BUSHILF_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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63 BUSHILF_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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64 BUSHILF_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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65 BUSHILF_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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66 BUSHILF_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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67 BUSHILF_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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68 BUSHILF_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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69 BUSHILF_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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70 BUSHILF_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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71 BUSHILF_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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72 BUSHILF_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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73 BUSHILF_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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74 BUSHILF_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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75 BUSHILF_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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76 BUSHILF_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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77 BUSHILF_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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78 BUSHILF_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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BUSMEDLF
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80 BUSMEDLF_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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81 BUSMEDLF_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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82 BUSMEDLF_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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83 BUSMEDLF_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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84 BUSMEDLF_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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85 BUSMEDLF_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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86 BUSMEDLF_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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87 BUSMEDLF_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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88 BUSMEDLF_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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89 BUSMEDLF_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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90 BUSMEDLF_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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91 BUSMEDLF_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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92 BUSMEDLF_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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93 BUSMEDLF_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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94 BUSMEDLF_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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95 BUSMEDLF_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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96 BUSMEDLF_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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97 BUSMEDLF_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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98 BUSMEDLF_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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99 BUSMEDLF_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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100 BUSMEDLF_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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101 BUSMEDLF_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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102 BUSMEDLF_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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103 BUSMEDLF_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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BUSLOLF
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105 BUSLOLF_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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106 BUSLOLF_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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107 BUSLOLF_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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108 BUSLOLF_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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109 BUSLOLF_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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110 BUSLOLF_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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111 BUSLOLF_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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112 BUSLOLF_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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113 BUSLOLF_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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114 BUSLOLF_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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115 BUSLOLF_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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116 BUSLOLF_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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117 BUSLOLF_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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118 BUSLOLF_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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119 BUSLOLF_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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120 BUSLOLF_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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121 BUSLOLF_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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122 BUSLOLF_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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123 BUSLOLF_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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124 BUSLOLF_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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125 BUSLOLF_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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126 BUSLOLF_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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127 BUSLOLF_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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128 BUSLOLF_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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BUSNODEM
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130 BUSNODEM_COAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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131 BUSNODEM_COAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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132 BUSNODEM_COAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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133 BUSNODEM_EAST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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134 BUSNODEM_EAST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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135 BUSNODEM_EAST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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136 BUSNODEM_FWEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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137 BUSNODEM_FWEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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138 BUSNODEM_FWEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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139 BUSNODEM_NCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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140 BUSNODEM_NCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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141 BUSNODEM_NCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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142 BUSNODEM_NORTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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143 BUSNODEM_NORTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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144 BUSNODEM_NORTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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145 BUSNODEM_SCENT Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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146 BUSNODEM_SCENT Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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147 BUSNODEM_SCENT Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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148 BUSNODEM_SOUTH Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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149 BUSNODEM_SOUTH Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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150 BUSNODEM_SOUTH Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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151 BUSNODEM_WEST Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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152 BUSNODEM_WEST Friday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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153 BUSNODEM_WEST Christmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research
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154 Findings Treatment of Holidays as Sundays results in a higher R 2 for Residential Profiles Treatment of Holidays as Sundays has mixed R 2 results for Business Profiles (15 out of 32 groups with higher R 2 ) Treatment of Holidays as Sundays is the suggested methodology
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