1. IPCC AR5 WG2 2014 Utjecaji, prilagodba i ranjivost Doprinos 2. radne skupine Petom izvješću o procjeni IPCC Prof. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj Univerza v Ljubljani IPCC WG2, GWP

3. The climate change challenge in a nutshell Average T of the earth has risen by 0.9 o C since 1900 Expected rise in global T of 3°C or more by the end of the century Temperature rise results in extreme weather events and impacts (e.g. flooding, droughts, sea level rise, etc.) Human action mainly responsible for observed and projected climate change Risk of major economic and social disturbances particularly in developing countries Swift action required to: – Reduce the causes of climate changes (mitigation) – Prepare for the impacts of climate change (adaptation)

4. Climate change impacts Climate Change Impacts Physical systems (ice, rivers, etc.) Biological & seasonal cycles Economy: infrastructure, output, growth Human Well-being Indirect impacts Wealth (and distribution); local environment; etc. Direct health impacts (heat, extreme events...) Food yields

7. Zašto više ekstrema? Klimatska promjena Klimatska promjena sa večom variabilnošču -20-10010302040°C 0% 10% 30% 20% Frekvenca

8. Trend in absolute sea level (satellite measurements 1992-2012 ) mm/year

9. Impacts of sea level rise Increased river and storm flooding Accelerated coastal erosion – impacts on tourism Seawater intrusion into coastal ground water – salinization of fresh water Encroachment of seawater into wetlands and estuaries – destruction of habitats Impacts on coastal installations.

10. Impacts on natural ecosystems shift of vegetation zones (belts) in a horizontal and vertical direction displacement and changes in the habitats of individual species of flora and fauna, extinction of individual species changes in the qualitative and quantitative mixture of biocenosis fragmentation of habitats changes to ecosystem functioning

11. Thuiller et al. (2005) PROJEKCIJE MODELA DO 2080 Najviše izgubljenih vrst u Alpama, Pirenejima, u Skandinaviji i Krpatima

12. changes in phytoplankton communities, increased harmfull algal blooms (impacts on tourism), spread of invasive species (impacts on biodiversity), changes in population dynamics of commercial important species (impact on fisheries), impact on biodiversity (loss 15-37% of Mediterranean species by 2050). Impacts on marine systems

13. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Climate Change Biodiversity The Perfect Storm? (Beddington, 2009)

16. WheatSoyRiceMaize CROP TYPE -6 -4 -2 0 2 90 th Percentile 75 th Percentile Median 25 th Percentile 10 th Percentile YIELD IMPACT (% Change per Decade)

21. Alleviating rivalries between economic sectors? Climatic change Water resources TourismAgricultureMining Conflict mitigation through improved water governance? Energy

23. Impacts at Tourism Destinations ◘ Direct climatic impacts » Warmer Summers, warmer winters » Precipitation Changes (water supply) » Increased Extreme Events ◘ Indirect environmental change impacts » Biodiversity Loss (terrestrial and marine) » Sea Level Rise » Disease ◘ Impact of mitigation policy on tourist mobility » Travel Costs and Destination Choice (less long haul? / less plane?) ◘ Indirect societal change impacts » Global/Regional Economic Impacts » Increased Security Risks (social/governance disruption)

24. Climate change: A Multiplier for Instability

25. Adaptation is now inevitable... The only question is “ will it be by plan or by chaos ”?

26. Climate change Impacts Response Development objectives Policy criteria Mitigation Adaptation Monitoring, Evaluation Other stresses Existing management practices Climate variability Information, Awareness Planning, Design Implemen- tation The process of adaptation

27. Key Questions Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Climate Change 1.Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? 2.Can we cope with the future demands on water? 3.Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? 4.Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? 5.Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems? Biodiversity The Perfect Storm? (Beddington, 2009)