1. The technical approach is as follows: Study transit policies Identify potential future regional scenarios Adopt evaluation criteria for transit policies Evaluate policy impacts for region Determine policy robustness to future scenarios Support the prioritization of policies by agencies and public officials Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies Megan N. Kersh, Asad A. Saqib, Matthew J. Schroeder, Edward E. Williams IV, James H. Lambert Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems and Department of Systems Engineering, University of Virginia Sponsored in part by the Commonwealth of Virginia’s Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning and Investment and the Virginia Transportation Research Council Prepared for the 2008 IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium Motivation and Problem Definition The Commonwealth of Virginia Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning and Investment seeks understanding of regional impacts of VTrans2035 statewide transportation policies across performance criteria under various future scenarios. We developed a software decision tool that enables regional planners to characterize the impacts of twenty-one policies across forty-two performance criteria for up to five critical regional scenarios. A case study was developed for the Roanoke Valley Area Metropolitan Organization. Technical Approach Results and Conclusions Performance Criteria Default Criteria Weights S.02 Sprawl accelerates S.17 Retirement S.18 Natural disaster S.03 IT amenities grow S.19 Decrease in air quality C.1 Safety and Security16.7%─↑↑ ↓─ C.2 Preservation and Management16.7%↑ ──── C.3 Efficient Movement of People and Goods16.7%↑ ─ C.4 Economic Vitality16.7%↑ ↑↑ ↑ C.5 Quality of Life16.7%↑─↑↑↑ C.6 Program Delivery16.7%───── ↑ ↑─↓↓ Level of Impact Major Increase Minor Increase No Change Minor Decrease Major Decrease Ratio2:11.5:11:11:1.51:2 The table to the left describes the scenario impacts across the performance criteria for a particular region. We compare the median, maximum, and minimum ranks for the twenty-one policies, studying the robustness of the policies to the five scenarios. The methodology will be deployed to the regions and localities of the Commonwealth of Virginia, in support of the evolving statewide long-range transportation plan VTrans2035. Performance CriteriaFuture ScenariosStatewide Policies C.1 Safety and Security C.2 Preservation and Management C.3 Efficient Movement of People and Goods C.4 Economic Vitality C.5 Quality of Life C.6 Program Delivery S.02 Sprawl Accelerates S.03 IT Amenities Grow S.17 Retirement S.18 Natural Disaster S.19 Decrease in Air Quality … P.04 Fund Rail P.06 Strengthen Planning and Modeling P.10 Improve Connections P.20 Continue Technical Committee P.21 Establish a Commission … Statewide PolicyMedian Rank Min Rank Max Rank P.15 Plan Multimodally 112 P.13 Invest in Technology 212 P.11 Think Multimodally 334 P.22 Smart Growth447 P.2 Support Transit547 Sample of Five Statewide Policies with Highest Regional Impacts: