1. QUANTIFYING PROFESSIONAL DISCRETION THE BEST SYSTEMS USE OBJECTIVE INFORMATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH PROFESSIONAL DISCRETION

2. HOW TO QUANTIFY PROFESSIONAL DISCRETION Youth 1 Youth 2 Youth 3 Youth 4 Youth 5 Youth 6 All 6 youth have been overridden and entered a secure bed The average risk of recidivism Is 33 (33% should recidivate) Example 1: Two of the six youth recidivate Conclusion: Professional discretion is not effective Example 2: One of the six youth recidivate Conclusion: Professional discretion reduced recidivism from 33% to 17% (50% reduction).

3. THINGS TO CONSIDER Researchers can automate a system to provide feedback Most experienced workers are more likely to effectively use professional discretion Newer workers should be more reliant on equations Can couple with other tools (e.g. matching) Agencies should expect benefits from using professional discretion No need to use percentage of overrides to determine equation’s effectiveness