1. Vermont Economy Newsletter Long Term Demographic Changes and Economic Problems in Vermont by Art Woolf New England Federal Credit Union March 22, 2006

2. Vermont Economy Newsletter Short Term Economy Slow, steady, very modest job growth Incomes are healthy in Vermont Housing prices are high and prices will slow

3. Vermont Economy Newsletter In the Longer Term, A Specter is Haunting Vermont… In the Longer Term, A Specter is Haunting Vermont… Fewer Babies… Means Fewer School Kids… And Fewer Workers… And a Lot More Older People …and the implications are profound

4. Vermont Economy Newsletter To Understand the Future, Look Backwards… ….About 10,000 Years

5. Vermont Economy Newsletter From the Beginning of Rime Until 1800: A High Birth Rate - High Death Rate Population Equilibrium 1800: The Demographic Transition Begins in the West Mid 20 th Century: The Demographic Transition Hits the Third World Mid 21 st Century: The World Is At a Low Birthrate, Low Death Rate Equilibrium

6. Vermont Economy Newsletter A Stylized View of the Demographic Transition

7. Vermont Economy Newsletter The Big Issue in the Near Term Future for VT: Slow Population Growth

8. Vermont Economy Newsletter Vermont’s Recent Population History is Unusual

9. Vermont Economy Newsletter Reasons for the Growth Slowdown: Low Birth Rate Low Net In-migration Few International Immigrants

10. Vermont Economy Newsletter VT’s Future Does Not Look Like the US

11. Vermont Economy Newsletter Vermont Will Look Like Florida

12. Vermont Economy Newsletter 1. Vermont Loses Working Age Population

13. Vermont Economy Newsletter 2. School Age Population Shrinks as Total Population Slowly Rises

14. Vermont Economy Newsletter 3. Vermont Will Become Old

15. Vermont Economy Newsletter The Result: Major Changes in Dependency Ratios

16. Vermont Economy Newsletter Challenges of Demographic Change How will schools adjust? How will firms adjust to labor force stagnation? How will financial institutions adapt? How will state respond to changing fiscal demands

17. Vermont Economy Newsletter The Fiscal Implications Are Not Pretty

18. Vermont Economy Newsletter Solutions? Two models for Vermont: FranceSingapore Planning vs spontaneous order

19. Vermont Economy Newsletter

20. Job Growth Will Be Slow as Demographic Changes Begin to be Felt

21. Vermont Economy Newsletter Income Growth is Healthy

22. Vermont Economy Newsletter Housing Affordability is Not Bad

23. Vermont Economy Newsletter The Actual Numbers: World Population Growth 2000 BC to 2000 AD

24. Vermont Economy Newsletter …And the World Got Richer

25. Vermont Economy Newsletter