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1 GFNORTE 2Q04 Results
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2 Contents 1.GFNorte in the Industry 2.GFNorte’s Results 3.Banking Sector’s Results 4.Long Term Savings Sector’s Results 5.Economic Outlook
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3 1. GFNorte in the Industry
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4 BRANCHES BanamexBanorte HSBCSantander BBVA- Bancomer Scotiabank 25% 15% 20% 14% 20% 6% 4° 24% 16% 19% 13% 21% 5% 1Q03 1Q04 ASSETS 26% 12% BanamexBanorte 11% HSBCSantander 16% 4° 5% Scotiabank BBVA- Bancomer 28% 12% 10% 14% 5% 30% Banorte vs. Industry
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5 CAPITALIZATION 18% BBVA - Bancomer 15% Scotiabank 16% HSBCBanorte 15% 3° Santander 11% Banamex 12% 14% 13% 16% 13% 14% 12% Banorte vs. Industry 1Q03 1Q04
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6 4Q01 1Q04 CORE DEPOSITS Deposits Market Share 29% 27% 6% 10% 6% 29% 24% 5% BBVA Bancomer BanamexBanorteScotiabank 5° 13% 15% HSBC 16% 15% Santander Serfin TOTAL DEPOSITS 28% 22% 6% 15% 13% 5% 16% 28% 22% 5% BBVA Bancomer BanamexSantander Serfin BanorteScotiabank 5° 16% HSBC
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7 4Q01 1Q04 COMMERCIAL LOANS Loans Market Share PERFORMING LOANS 29% 6% 9% 8% 9% 22% 25% 10% BBVA Bancomer BanamexSantander Serfin HSBCScotiabank 12% 9% Banorte 3° 24% 26% 8% 5% 11% 9% 23% 15% 7% 6% BBVA Bancomer BanamexSantander Serfin BanorteHSBCScotiabank 4°
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8 2. GFNorte’s Results
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9 1,087 17.6% 29.50 2.16 1.14 13.6% 41% 6.0% 116% 1,127 15.8% 40.83 2.23 1.42 14.5% 17% 3.6% 131% 1H041H03 4%38% Net Income Annualized ROE Stock Price EPS P/BV Capitalization Ratio Loan growth w/o IPAB Past due loan ratio w/o IPAB Reserve Coverage Highlights MILLIONS OF PESOS
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10 GFNorte’s Income MILLIONS OF PESOS 2Q03 Banking Long – Term Savings Auxiliary Organizations Holding GFNORTE 850 149 44 11 1,087 33Brokerage House 958 99 40 (9) 1,127 39 519 20 23 (4) 568 9 2Q041H04 436 69 24 3 558 26 1H03 2%4%
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11 3. Banking Sector’s Results
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12 MILLIONS OF PESOS Income Statement 2Q032Q04Var %1H031H04Var % Net Interest Income after REPOMO 2,0702,0921%4,4124,108(7%) Services51372441%1,0001,39940% Recovery8512648%18825134% Foreign Exchange12415021%21127531% Trading ( Securities- Realized and unrealized gains ) 280(87)(131%)400198(50%) Non Interest Income 1,001912(9%)1,7992,12418% Total Income 2,7062,8556%5,5705,9657% Non Interest Expense (2,311)(2,358)2%(4,612)(4,811)4% Net Operating Income 39549726%9581,15420% Non Operating Income (Expense) Net 8211439%(51)(30)(41%) Income Tax,profit sharing, Undistrib. Earnings of Subsidiaries (*) (15)(62)327%20(84)(520%) Total Net Income 46354919%9271,03912% Loan Loss and Loss Sharing Provisions (365)(149)(59%)(642)(267)(58%) (*) Includes extraordinary items and minority interest.
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13 NIM vs. CETES 4.9 4.3 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.3 1Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q04 8.8 6.3 4.6 5.4 5.6 6.3 CETES NIM
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14 … AS % OF EXPENSES 41% 32% 44% 33% 2001200220031H04 31% 25% 34% 26% 2001200220031H04 … AS % OF TOTAL INCOME Non Interest Income
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15 2001200220031H04 5.1 4.4 4.3 2.2 2.8 2.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.7 10.8 9.4 9.5 4.8 Expenses BILLIONS OF PESOS 78% 87% 77% 81% 2001200220031H04 EFFICIENCY RATIO Personnel O & A VAT & IPAB Rent, depreciation & amortization
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16 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 2001200220032Q04 Bank Afore Insurance MILLIONS 6.0 6.9 8.2 9.3 Total Customers
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17 137 227 225 228 107 133 150 154 2001200220031H04 Bank Brokerage House 265 386 407 418 21 27 32 36 Assets Under Management Total Resources from Customers BILLIONS OF PESOS
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18 Deposits2Q033Q034Q032Q04 Demand Deposits58 59 67 64 Time Deposits33 34 Total90 92 100 98 Deposits Mix 64% 67%65% 36% 33%35% 100% 1Q04 62 33 95 65% 35% 100% Core Deposits (Billions of Pesos) Demand Deposits Time Deposits
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19 8% 11% 5% ANNUAL GROWTH (2Q04 VS. 2Q03) Demand Deposits Time Deposits Total Core Deposits
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20 2Q031Q042Q04 VARIATION 2Q031Q042Q04 64 71 75 Commercial1924255%31% Corporate1813146%(19%) Government810 1%1%23% TOTAL6471755%5%17% Consumer1924267%7%34% Loan Portfolio (Billions of Pesos) Q on Q Y on Y
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21 2Q031Q042Q04 19 24 26 2Q031Q042Q04 4664%36% 23310%47% 11212%93% Consumer1924267%34% VARIATION Car loans Credit Cards Payroll loans 1214157%27% Mortgage Consumer and Mortgage Loan Portfolio (Billions of Pesos) Q on Q Y on Y
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22 Number of New Loans CREDIT CARDSCAR LOANS MORTGAGE 43,620 53,887 1H031H04 24% 19,823 19,751 1H031H04 3,264 4,598 1H031H04 41% =
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23 Loan Portfolio Corporate 38% Commercial 27% Government 9% Consumer 25% Corporate 19% Commercial 33% Government 13% Consumer 35% 2002 1H04 Ps 66,000 Millions 14% Ps 75,000 Millions
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24 BILLIONS OF DE PESOS LOAN PORTFOLIO IPAB / FOBAPROA 19961997 43 105 2001 147 2002 153 2003 152 21% 71% 66% 59% 51% 2Q04 150 48% 79% 29% 34% 41% 49% 52% Loan Portfolio
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25 Fobaproa – IPAB Notes 1S´04 YIELD MATURITY BANCRECER 46TIIE + 40 pb BANCEN - BANPAIS 19TIIE + 85 pb BANORTE (FOBAPROA) 7CETES – 135 pb 2009 2010 2005/2006 72 TOTAL BILLIONS OF DE PESOS
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26 Asset Quality Past Due Loans Loan Loss Reserves 1Q032Q033Q034Q032Q04 RESERVE COVERAGE 1Q04 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.6 2.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.7 3.6 4.6 Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 131% 127% 116% 128% 122% 1Q032Q033Q034Q032Q04 130% 1Q04 3.6% 5.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 1Q032Q033Q034Q032Q04 4.8% 1Q04 Loan Portfolio646871757875 BILLIONS OF DE PESOS
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27 Recovery Bank Net Income CONTRIBUTION TO GFNORTE’S NET INCOME 23% 32% 33% 29% 2001200220031H04 2001200220031H04 484561714263 MILLIONS OF PESOS
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28 27 26 24 23 20 17 14 13 18 17 21 23 2001200220032Q04 65 60 59 Recovery Banking Assets Under Management (Billions of Pesos at Face Value) Banorte risk (owned + auctions) Serfin Portfolio IPAB Portfolio (servicing)
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29 Capitalization Ratio Tier 1 Tier 2 TOTAL 10.9% 2.4% 13.4% 1Q03 11.2%11.4%10.5% 2.4% 2.2%5.0% 13.6%13.8%12.7%15.4% 2Q033Q034Q031Q04 10.7% 3.8% 14.5% 2Q04
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30 4. Long Term Savings Sector’s Results
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31 Afore 5 4 7 10 16 20 25 28 1998199920002001200220031H04 BILLIONS OF PESOS 1.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.6 1.4 1998199920002001200220031H04 CUSTOMERS MILLIONS
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32 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7 GROSS WRITTEN PREMIUMS BILLIONS OF PESOS 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 CUSTOMERS MILLIONS Insurance 1998199920002001200220031H04 0.4 1998199920002001200220031H04 0.5 0.4 0.2
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33 Contribution to GFNorte’s Net Income 2001 2002 2003 1H04 Afore 5.9% 6.2% 5.0% 4.4% Insurance 0.5% 2.0% 3.6% 3.0% Annuities (0.4%) 0.0% 1.3% 1.5% 9% 10% 8% 6% 2001200220031H04 … LONG TERM SAVINGS SECTOR
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34 5. Economic Outlook
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35 Economic Environment Mexico´s economy experienced higher growth during 1H04. - Aggregate demand is showing its best performance since 2000. - Exports growth has detonated the industrial sector recovery. - Job creation continues to lag, but there are signs of improvement in the labor market. Macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid. - Public finances registered a surplus during 1H04, helped by the oil windfall. - Proactive debt management provides a shield as interest rates rise. - International reserves are at an all time high. - The current account deficit will represent 1.5% of GDP and it is being financed by long term flows of capital. Inflation expectations are deteriorating. - Monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive throughout 2004. Banxico has already increased the “corto” five times during the year. Political conditions remain complex. - Mexico´s City Mayor López Obrador, will face a probable impeachment process. Expect noise from this affair. - 9 remaining state elections of which 5 are for Governor. - Do not expect major reforms to be passed.
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36 Macroeconomic Environment SOURCE: BANORTE’S BROKERAGE HOUSE AS OF AUGUST 2004 2003 GDP1.3% Inflation3.98% 28 days Cete rate (End of the year)6.06% 28 days Cete rate (Average)6.22% Peso exchange rate (End of the year)11.24 2004 3.8% 4.35% 7.55% 6.65% 11.59 2005 3.9% 3.84% 8.13% 7.87% 12.03
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