1. International Telecommunication Union Partners in Transition 22 nd Annual Telecommunications Conference and Trade Exhibition, CANTO Punta Cana, Dominican Republic 19 June 2006 Roberto Blois Deputy Secretary-General, ITU

2. International Telecommunication Union Agenda 1.Partnership in World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) 2.Drivers of the telecom industry 3.Partners in Transition towards IP- enabled NGN 4.Conclusions Helping the world communicate

3. International Telecommunication Union 1.1 World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) Geneva Phase: December 2003 11,000 participants 41 Heads of State 1.Geneva Declaration of Principles 2.Geneva Plan of Action Tunis Phase: November 2005 25,000 participants 47 Heads of State 3.Tunis Commitment 4.Tunis Agenda for the Information Society Helping the world communicate

4. International Telecommunication Union 1.2 Main WSIS Outcomes Emphasized multi-stakeholder partnerships for progress; Est. Internet Governance Forum; United Nations Group for the IS; Creation of Digital Solidarity Fund; Framework for implementation assigning clear responsibilities; And more… Helping the world communicate

5. International Telecommunication Union 1.3 Internet Governance Forum (IGF) First meeting in Athens, Greece: 30 Oct – 2 November 2006 Annual meeting: not a decision-making forum (2007: Brazil, 2008: India) Information-sharing event with development focus See www.intgovforum.orgwww.intgovforum.org IGF Advisory Group (AG) and representatives of IGO’s (e.g., ITU, OECD, UNESCO, World Bank) developing meeting agenda

6. International Telecommunication Union 1.4 Athens IGF Agenda Themes Openness: Free flow of information, idea and access t o knowledge. Security: Building trust in an online environment; Protecting users from spam, phishing, and viruses; Maintain security while protecting privacy. Diversity: Promoting multilingualism including IDNs and promoting local content; Respecting geographical diversity. Access: Internet connectivity: Cost and Policy

7. International Telecommunication Union 2. Drivers in the telecom industry 1.Competition 2.Cost & Revenues 3.Growth in Customers 4.Technological Innovation – the transition to IP-enabled NGN Helping the world communicate

8. International Telecommunication Union 2.1 Drivers - Competition Helping the world communicate Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 2006.

9. International Telecommunication Union 2.2 Competition in the Caribbean, 2006 Helping the world communicate

10. International Telecommunication Union 2.3 Drivers – Cost Worldwide Helping the world communicate

11. International Telecommunication Union 2.4 Drivers – Cost of Mobile in the Caribbean, 2005 Helping the world communicate

12. International Telecommunication Union 2.5 Drivers - Cost of Broadband in the Caribbean, 2006 Helping the world communicate

13. International Telecommunication Union 2.6 Drivers – Internet access in the Caribbean, 2003-2005 Helping the world communicate

14. International Telecommunication Union 2.7 Drivers - Growth in Customers

15. International Telecommunication Union 2.8 Drivers – Technological Innovation Helping the world communicate Source: ITU workshop on “What Rules for IP-enabled NGN?”, adapted from Christian Wey.

16. International Telecommunication Union Transition towards NGN: Definition A Next Generation Network (NGN) is a packet- based network able to provide services and make use of multiple broadband, QoS-enabled transport technologies and in which service- related functions are independent from underlying transport-related technologies. It offers unrestricted access by users to different service providers. It supports generalized mobility which will allow consistent and ubiquitous provision of services to users. ITU Study Group 13, 2004. Helping the world communicate

17. International Telecommunication Union Transition to NGN Helping the world communicate On NGN technical standards, ITU fully engaged But convergence and transition to NGN implies new challenges for policy-makers and regulators Capital markets looking for regulatory certainty! ITU workshop in March 2006 initiated international dialogue:  “thought-leading” background papers  sharing of national experiences and approaches  assistance in capacity-building with developing economies in transitioning to this new paradigm See www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn/

18. International Telecommunication Union Main findings Helping the world communicate Old World (PSTN telecom) New World (IP-based Internet) Circuit-switchedPacket-based, based on IP InterconnectionP2P peering arrangements Capacity-basedQuality of Service class (best effort) Cost orientation on marginal costBundled offers; marginal costs near zero Calling Party’s Network PaysUnclear - Bill and Keep? Price capsPrice squeezes Key issues – asymmetric regulation (numbers, universal & emergency service) Unlicensed bands, spectrum trading Network-centric control & intelligenceEdge-centric intelligent nodes at edge Source: ITU, adapted from discussions during the ITU workshop, “What Rules for IP-enabled NGN?”

19. International Telecommunication Union Arguments for regulatory forbearance Incentives for massive investments required, so “ national regulatory moratoria ” are required; too early to know whether interconnection will be open access or wholesale mandated.

20. International Telecommunication Union Arguments for re-monopolisation? Carriers may rapidly vertically integrate services and bottlenecks in access and control may emerge; regulate non-replicable assets only. BUT Shake-up may be so profound, incumbents lose Significant Market Power and be forced into strategic alliances with content providers

21. International Telecommunication Union Conclusions NGN radically transform business models – threat, as well as an opportunity Risk of re-monopolization, necessitating regulation of bottlenecks Alternatively, incumbents may lose Significant Management Power, as they are forced to cooperate with other players Can only deal with this radical industry shake-up together, as partners in transition

22. International Telecommunication Union Roberto Blois Deputy Secretary-General ITU Email: roberto.blois@itu.int