1. Risks, Hazards, and Decision Making Chris Saulnier & Jacob Sargent WS 2016

2. Your MITOC Experience << >> RISK

3. The Value of Risk

4. The Value of Competence

5. Developing Competence No Experience Lots of Experience

6. EXPLORING HAZARDS Your group is headed to Ammonoosuc Ravine for a MITOC Alpine Ice Climbing! Objective: Hike to the bottom of the ravine, ice climb several pitches, top out of the ravine above treeline, hike to the summit of Mt. Washington, descend via the Ammo Ravine Trail, wohoo! What hazards could your group encounter during the day?

7. OBJECTIVE HAZARDS Temperature Precipitation Wind Lightning Water Steep challenging terrain Falling rocks and ice Natural disasters, avalanches Vertebrates, arachnids, insects, pathogens, plants, humans, etc.

8. SUBJECTIVE HAZARDS Lack of preparation – water, food, shelter, clothing, footwear Getting in over your head – equipment, navigation Poor physical condition – fitness, pack weight Phobias and fears – acrophobia Pre-existing medical conditions

9. Adventure vs. Misadventure 4:30 - Depart Boston 6:00 - Breakfast @ White Mtn. Bagel 8:00 - Trailhead 12:30 - Top Out Climbing - White-out conditions* - find and follow cairns 14:30 - Back at car 17:30 - Back in Boston enjoying Dinner Total: 13 hours – 6.5 hours on Mountain 5:30 - Depart Boston - Low Tire Pressure Indicator - Miss getting back on highway 8:30 - Breakfast @ White Mtn. Bagel - Notice tire is flat - Repair tire at local mechanic 10:30 - Trailhead - Make quick progress following broken trail 12:15 - Start of climbing 14:00 - Top out climbing 14:40 - lost tracks, whiteout conditions - decide to head for cog descent via summit - tracks are buried, still whiteout 17:00 - Sunset - return to summit 20:40 - Down to Pinkham via road - luckily get ride to other side / car 3:30 - Back in Boston Total: 22 hours – 12 hours on Mountain *Early start. Had map, cellphone, GPS device, and SPOT in pack in case of emergency.

10. MANAGING RISKS Preparation – desired outcomes, hazards, rules, safe zones, strategies, movement, signals Execution – follow the plan, reevaluate, intervention, communication, assessment, transitions Debrief – what happened?, what could have happened?, what did we learn?, what’s next?

11. HEURISTIC TRAPS Familiarity Acceptance Consistency Expert Halo Social Facilitation Scarcity http://www.summitpost.org/human-factors- in-avalanche-incidents/188636

12. CONCLUSIONS Everything worthwhile in life entails some risk Leading cause of death in the U.S. is heart disease Enjoy yourself, get outside, and be safe!