1. Klaus M. Weickmann NOAA/ESRL/PSD Edward K. Berry NOAA/NWS A synoptic-dynamic model with application to subseasonal monitoring and forecasting eddies convection base state mountains

2. Snellman Forecast Funnel Global Mean

3. THERE IS NO COOK BOOK!!!

4. Global Synoptic-Dynamic Model (GSDM) Seek to extract repeatable behavior by the the global circulation Includes four subseasonal time scales: MJO - 30-60 day quasi-oscillation, baroclinic wave packets - 1-2 day decay time teleconnections - ~6-10 day decay time 20-30 day quasi-oscillation Keyed to the time tendency of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) some averaging necessary – vertical, zonal, etc. mountain, friction torques, momentum flux conv.momentum flux conv GSDM combined with rigorous daily monitoring and synoptic analysis animations of daily, 7-day, 30-day, etc averages time-latitude/longitude/height plots zonal and global AAM budget

5. Indices used for lag regressions Madden-Julian Oscillation: EOF1 of 20-100 day filtered OLR Teleconnections or “  M -  F index cycle”: global friction torque with MJO removed Baroclinic waves and wave packets: Global AAM time tendency filtered at < 30 days

6. Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 L L L H H H H L L L H L L H H H H L H L H L L L H L H L L L H L H L H H H L L L H L H H H H L L H H H H H L L L L L H H L L H L L H H H L L H H H L L H H L H H L L H H L L H H L L H L

7. Application of GSDM Case 1: May 4-10, 2003  Several Severe Local Storms Outbreaks  Strong MJO  GSDM Stage 1 Case 2: June 2006  Excessive East Coast Rainfall Event  Hot/Dry Regime Intensifies for Western and Central USA Evaluating real time signals in tropical convection, atmospheric angular momentum, baroclinic wave packets, SST anomalies, persistent regimes,etc.

8. Case 2 June 2006 Generally persistent tropical convection across western Pacific as part of a ENSO/global warming signal Poleward propagation of zonal mean anomalous easterly flow off the equator leads to strong North Atlantic trades ~ 50-60 day “oscillatory” tropical convective variations across the western Pacific ~30 day tropical convective variability with coherent eastward propagation Baroclinic wave packets/Rossby wave energy dispersion processes GSDM Stage 2

9. MJO #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 A

10. wet dry Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 2

11. E E E E W W

12. 6/16 6/17 6/18 L L H L H H H H H H H H L H H L L L H L H H L H L H L H H H H H H H H H H H L H H H L H

13. 6/19 6/20 6/21 H H H H H L H L H L L L L H H L H H H L L H H H H H H H H H L L L L L H H

14. 6/22 6/23 6/24 H HH H L L L H H H H H H H H H H H H L H L L L L L

15. 6/25 6/26 6/27 H H H H HH H H H H L L H H H H L H L L L L H L

16. 6/28 6/29 6/30 H H H L H L H L L L H H L L L L L L H L H

17. Questions???

19. Case 1 November – December 2005 Strong North Pacific December Jet despite La-Nina and Indonesian tropical convective forcing Initiated during early November from Rossby Wave linked to west Pacific tropical forcing Recurrent Kamchatka blocks eventually overspread polar latitudes Postulated feedbacks include positive mountain torques, East Asia cold outbreaks and strong flux convergence of AAM ~30N GSDM Stage 3 circulation with Stage 1 convection Break down during early January as Kelvin wave/MJO develops across Indian Ocean

20. Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity

21. EH Consolidation ~30 days ~40 days ~20-30 days ~20 days #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 WH A B C D E

22. Stage 3 circ Stage 1-2 conv Stage 1 circ Stage 1-2 conv Stage 2 circ Stage 2 conv Relative Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) Global AAM Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

24. 12/03/05 to 01/02/06 12/03/05 to 01/01/06 03/03/06 to 04/02/06 03/03/06 to 04/01/06 L H L H L H H L L H L H HL L HL H L H H L L HL L H L L L H H H L H L L

25. 12/03/05 to 01/02/06 03/03/06 to 04/02/06 + + -- +

26. 4 Dec 9 Nov 15 Nov 28 Nov H H H H H L L L H H H H H H L L L L H H H H H H L L L L L L L L H H H H L L

27. 12 Dec 21 Dec 4 Jan 12 Feb L L L L L H H H L H H HH H H H L L H H H H HH H L H H L H L H H H L H L L H L L L L L H H H L L L L H H