1. Polls

2. Today: The mathematical and scientific logic of polling Problems with polls

3. Problems with Polls Representativeness of the sample Question wording Do responses reflect real opinions?

4. Question framing effects: “Do you support a measure that prohibits the government from discriminating against or giving preferential treatment to any individual or group in public employment, public education, or public contracting?” “Do you support a measure that ends government affirmative action on behalf of African Americans and other minority groups in public employment, public education and public contracting?”

5. Question framing effects: “Do you favor or oppose direct US Military action against Iraq at this time?” –Gallup, 8/3-4/1990, 23% favor, 68% oppose “Would you approve or disapprove of using US troops to force the Iraqis to leave Kuwait?” –Gallup, 8/9-12/1990, 64% agree, 36% disagree “Should or should not the US take military action if Iraq refuses to withdraw from Kuwait? –NBC/WSJ, 8/18/1990, 49% should, 51% should not

6. President Bush authorized government wiretaps on some phone calls in the U.S. without getting court warrants, saying this was necessary to reduce the threat of terrorism. Do you approve or disapprove of this? Approve: 53 Disapprove: 46 No opinion: 1 After 9/11, George W. Bush authorized government wiretaps on some phone calls in the U.S. without getting court warrants. Do you approve or disapprove of this? Approve: 46 Disapprove: 50 No opinion: 3