1. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 1 FACUTLY OF SCIENCE Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences John R Porter SCIENCE Copenhagen University DK NRI Greenwich University UK Lincoln University NZ Post-IPCC AR5 WG2 C7 Food systems and food security as drivers and outcomes of climate smart agriculture

2. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 2 Topics IPCC AR5 Sustainable intensification and new models Speculation and Conclusions

3. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 3 IPCC AR5 WG1

4. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 4 IPCC AR5 was Hell!

5. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 5 Food Security: IPCC AR5 – 3 main points

6. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 6

7. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 7 App. 1/3 Agriculture Energy use Energy-based emissions

8. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 8 The Kaya Identity – UNFCC/IPCC = GHG GHG ENERGY GDP POPUL ATION × FuelsSectors × Services × POPUL ATION Scale independent - deconstruction

9. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 9 App. 1/3 Agriculture Energy use Non–energy emissions

10. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 10 JRP’s Simple Land-Use Identity (KPI) × = GHG YIELD AREA ENERGY YIELD GHG ENERGY x × AREA ProductionTechnologyFuels Porter 2009

11. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 11 The KPI Bennetzen et al. in prep. Land-use change Emissions from soils Carbon intensity of the energy Energy use efficiency Cultivated area Total emissions Yield (productivity) Deconstruction Management ‘handles’

12. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 12 Emissions per produced crop 100 % more crop production FA0(2013) Bennetzen et al. in prep.

13. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 13 Future emissions scenarios Future emissions ? Past emissions 2007-2050: 80 % more livestock production 50 % more crop production FA0(2006) Bennetzen et al. in prep.

14. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 14 Connecting wealth, population, consumption and GHG emissions Kaya identity (Raupach & Field, 2004) KPI (Bennetzen et al, 2012) Diet demand Diet supply

15. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 15 Sustainable Intensification What does it mean? More for less? Intensification of what? What’s the metric? System level? What’s the boundary? Production and/or consumption?

16. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 16 From To THE DEVELOPMENT OF CROP IDEO-SYSTEMS

17. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 17 Biomass N Uptake N Input N Available A back of the envelope idea….. Porter, 2013

18. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 18 Porter et al., 2015

19. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 19 Suggestions Use of identities in conjunction with modelling and experimental studies – model validation More experimental validation of models Exploration of the effect of data uncertainty on the accuracy and precision of models and their projections

20. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 20 Summary Points IPCC Sustainable Intensification – quantitative and qualitative aspects The need for metrics – identities

21. KSLA – FACCE Seminar Slide 21 Speculation

22. CO2 going down…

23. We have to speculate…CO2 going up NASA, 2012