1. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 1 Hazardous Cell Tracking Robert Boldi 29 September 2008 NSSTC/UAH

2. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 2 What is Hazardous Cell Tracking? Hazardous –Severe Lightning, Winds, Hail –Tornadoes Cell –Compact region embedded within a larger- scale convective system Tracking –Compute time-rate-of-change of Cell’s attributes.

3. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 3 Methodology Construct an “Interest Image”, each pixel of which represents the likelihood that a hazardous cell is present [ 0.. 1 ] Track this image using Multi-Scale XCT Locate “Cells” by thresholding this image Construct Lagrangian history of properties of the cells Predict future location of cells ( and properties )

4. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 4 Constructing “Interest” Image Functional Template Correlation –A template (small image), convolved against a larger input image, producing an “interest image”, each pixel of which is the probability that the feature represented by the template is present at the given pixel. –Templates map onto simple features ( lines, circular cells, low variance regions, etc. Fuzzy Logic –Groups of “Images” are combined to produce meteorologically-understandable phenomena, e.g. Stratiform, Convective, Decaying, Growing … –These phenomena are combined to produce the final “Interest Image”

5. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 5 Cell Detection and Tracking Lightning Radar Data Satellite Data Interest Image Generator FTC  WxTypes Fuzzy Logic  Fusion Multi-Scale XCT Tracker Cell-Scale Motions Storm-Scale Motions Cell Identification

6. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 6 Cell Detection and Tracking Lightning Events Radar Data Interest Image 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z

7. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 7 Cell Detection

8. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 8 Multi-Scale Tracking Interest Image 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z Envelope Motion Cell Motion

9. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 9 Multi-Scale Tracking

10. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 10 Cell Identification = Thresholding Interest Image Interest Image 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z Cell ID’s 2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z

11. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 11 Cell ID’s NOT persistent ( movie )

12. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 12 Lagrangian History Re- Construction Multi-Scale Vectors T(0) T(-  t) T(-2  t) ….. Input Fields -Lightning -Radar -Satellite T(0) T(-  t) T(-2  t) ….. Current Cell Map T(0) Past Data Advector Cell Integrator Cell 1 History Cell 2 History Cell 3 History :

13. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 13 Advector: Forward Advection of Inputs to Current Time In the absence of convergence, divergence, growth or decay, the alignment would be perfect. Current Time Past Time Advected to Current Time Past Time  =

14. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 14 Advector: Forward Advection of Inputs to Current Time

15. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 15 Lagrangian History Re- Construction

16. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 16 Lagrangian History Re- Construction

17. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 17 Lagrangian History Re- Construction

18. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 18 Cell Position Prediction Multi-Scale Vectors T(0) T(-  t) T(-2  t) ….. Current Cell Map T(0) Advector Future Cell Map T(+  t) Future Cell Map T(+2.  t) :

19. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 19 Input Field Prediction Multi-Scale Vectors T(0) T(-  t) T(-2  t) Current Input Field T(0) Advector Forecast Input Field T(+  t) Forecast Input Field T(+2.  t) : Trends, WxType

20. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 20 Summary Tracker running Creating Histories for Lightning Jump ALG Creating Predicted Cell Positions Platform for Lightning Prediction Work In Progress Obtaining proxy ABI data for : –WxType –Storm intensity image

21. UAH 28 Sept 2008R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH 21 THE END