2. Final exam  Section 1. 15 Short answers (one sentence or less, 2 points each)  Section 2. 4 longer short answers (3/4 page in blue book, 5 points each)  Section 3. Take-home essay. 7-8 pages 50 points:

3. Essay  “Was the nature of Saddam’s regime the logical consequence of trying to govern an inherently dysfunctional state? What does this imply about the prospects for democracy in Iraq? Does the US have a moral obligation to finish the job in Iraq (however long that may take), or is it time to bring all troops home and let the Iraqis shape their own destiny?”

4. Problem for US  20% hate you (Sunnis)  20% love you (Kurds)  60% tolerate you (Shia)  Answer = 80% solution

5. The plan  Train Iraqi forces  Physical reconstruction  Push ahead with democracy…  …Sunnis will have to join in

6. The problems  Sunnis boycott security forces  insurgents target infrastructure  Impedes reconstruction  … esp. in Sunni areas  Fuels insurgency  “fair and balanced” media problem

10. The political process

11. Stage 1 = the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC)

12. Iraqi Governing Council (IGC)  Appointed July 2003  By Paul Bremer  25 members  Decisions by consensus

14. Problems with IGC  No power  Bremer has veto  Defined by ethnicity/sect  Cannot agree (on anything)  Consensus = gridlock

16. “Do you have confidence in the IGC”?  July 2003 = 60% +  June 2004 = 23%

17. June 2004

18. Iraqi Interim Government (IIG)  Appt. June 2004  By Bremer (mostly)  Assumes “sovereignty” of Iraq  Ends occupation

19. Iyad Alawi: Prime Minister (Shi’a Arab + former Ba’athist + friend of the CIA)

20. Ghazi Yawar: President (Sunni Arab) Rowsch Shaways: Vice-Pres. Kurd Ibrahim Jafaari: Vice President. Shi’a Arab (religious)

21. Features of IIG  Allawi seen as puppet  Microcosm of society  Defined by ethnicity  No real power  US has effective veto (160,000 troops)  Did not govern

22. Elections Jan 2005

23. What were they for?  275-mem National Assembly (NA)  18 (41-mem) provincial councils  Kurdish Gov.

25. Main function of NA = draft permanent constitution

26. The Major Players:

27. The Kurds The Kurdish List: PUK + KDP Jalal Talabani: PUK Masoud Barzani: KDP

28. The Shi’a: Religious (United Iraqi Alliance: UIA) Al-Dawa SCIRI Sadrists INC

29. UIA = “Sistani’s List”

30. The Shi’a: Secular Allawi: The Iraqi List

31. The Sunnis Ghazi al-Yawer: “The Iraqis” Adnan Pachachi: Assembly of Independent Democracts

32. No credible Sunni Parties Sunni parties boycotted

33. The Good

35. The Results  PartyVote%Seats  UIA48%140  Kurdish List26%75  Iraqi List (Allawi)14%40  The Iraqis (al-Yawer)2%5  Others10%15  Total 275

36. The Iraqi Transitional Government (ITG) Prime Minister: Ibrahim Jaafari (al-Dawa) President Jalal Talabani (Kurd) Vice Pres: Abdul Mahdi (SCIRI) Vice Pres: Ghazi al- Yawer (Sunni)

37. Sunni boycott  Sunni Turnout = 5%  17 of 275 in NA  Turnout in Anbar Prov. = <1/2 of 1%  Sunnis exclude themselves  Excluded from drafting the constitution  Gov. of…  Kurdish nationalists + Iranian-backed Shia religious parties

38. The Constitutional “compromise” + ISCI/SCIRI Kurds

39. The bigger problem  Bayn Jabr (ISCI) = interior minister  Controls internal security forces  Stacks with Badr militia  = death squads

40. AQI  “led” by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi  Targets = US troops  Sunni collaborators  Shia civilians  Goal = civil war  Tactics = sucide bombs  beheadings

42. Warning!!

44. By the end of 2005…

46. Bad Voodoo’s War  “How does this video make you feel about the war, those fighting it, and the value of what they are trying to achieve?”  3 pages, due next thurs

47. The end of class bonus! Have a good weekend!

54. Need stuff on constitution

55. The Constitution  Art 2.  A. “no law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam”  B. “No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy”  Art 4  Official languages = Arabic + Kurdish  Same rights and liberties as TAL

56. Ctd.  Art 110  Federal Gvt administers oil and gas from current fields  2 or more provinces can form region  Art 149  Referendum in Kirkuk by 12/31/2007

57. What this means

59. Problems  Sunnis excluded from negotiations  Sunnis are the problem  They hate the Constitution  Because they are left with nothing  Violence will not end  Recipe for break-up

60. Election results (Dec 2005)

62. Seats  CoalitionSeats  Shia Religious  UIA128  Kurdish  Kurdish Islamists 5  Kurds53  Sunni Religious  IAF44  Sunni Ba’athists  IFND11  Secular/Moderate  INL 25  Others 9  Total275  Simple majority = 138  2/3 majority = 183

63. United Iraq Alliance: 128 Seats

64. Kurdish Alliance: 53 Seats  Jalal Talabani (PUK)  Masoud Barzani (KDP)

65. Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni religious): 44 Seats  Adnan al-Dulaimi  Moshen Abd al- Hamid

66. Iraqi Front for National Dialogue (ex-Ba’athist): 11 seats Saleh al-Mutlak

67. Iraqi National List: 25 seats

68. What next?  Parliament needs to select Pres.  2/3 maj vote  Pres then chooses PM  Confirmed by simple majority  Gvt of national unity? (all groups?)

69. Problems  Voting along ethnic lines  Kurds want Allawi included  Sadr + Sunnis hate Allawi  Kurds don’t want Jaafari as PM