1. COUNTDOWN TO COP21 Expectations for Paris

2. History of climate negotiations 1992: Climate Convention adopted Participants: 195 parties Purpose: To avoid "dangerous" climate change Clear division between developed and developing countries. Developed countries must take the lead and provide support. No reduction targets in the Convention 1997: Kyoto Protocol adopted Reduction targets for developed countries. 2009: COP15 in Copenhagen Attempt to reach a global climate agreement fails. But new approach where all countries can submit commitments. Consensus on the 2-degree target. Goal to mobilize 100 billion USD in climate finance pr. year from 2020. 2015: COP21 in Paris ???

3. Why a global climate agreement? Global challenge => global answer Long term signal to investors Positive co-benefits such as: – Health – Energy security

4. Challenges To name a few: A long-term global mitigation goal Climate finance Differentiation Legal form How hard can it be? 195 Parties working with consensus…

5. Challenge#1 – Climate finance Key for a compromise in Paris and for a global low-emission transformation Commitment from COP15: 100 mia. USD a year by 2020 (public, private and alternative sources) New OECD/CPI-report : 52 bn. USD i 2013 62 bn. USD i 2014 Finance for adaptation is a challenge

6. Challenge#2 - differentiation

7. Denmark and the EU The EU and 28MS speak with one voice. Priorities: High level of mitigation ambition and reduction targets for all Long-term global mitigation goal A robust rules-based regime Climate finance – especially private climate finance Flexibility to increase ambition after Paris

8. From action by few to action by all More than 160 countries have submitted their contribution to the new agreement (INDC) Covering more than 90 pct. of global emissions Kyoto Protocol less than 15 pct. Kilde: CAIT WRI

9. How far will they take us towards the below 2-degree target? 1.Baseline-scenario  3,7-4,8 °C (in 2100)  65 gitaton CO2e (in2030) 2.INDC-scenario  3,0-3,5 °C (in 2100)  54 gitaton CO2e (in 2030) 3.2 °C-scenario  42 gitaton CO2e (in2030)  ”Gap’”: 12 gitaton CO2e equivalent to China and Brazils emissions Kilde: UNEP 2015

10. G2 are taking the lead Bilateral agreement November 2014 Declaration from September INDCs: USA: 26-28 pct. in 2025 (2005) (15 pct. compared to 1990 as base year) China: peak in 2030 Other contributions The EU: 40 pct. reduction in 2030 South Africa: peak in 2025 Brazil: 43 pct. reduction in 2030 (from 2005) Indonesia: 29-41 pct. reduction in 2030 from ”business as usual”

11. What are the odds? Repetition of COP15..? o No – new political reality and approach, but the US and China and rest of the BASIC expected to define the final compromise A framework agreement o "Bottom-up" - not "top-down" o Reduction targets from key parties o Basic rules o Legal form Details after Paris o More detailed rules o Increased ambition? o More work…

12. Thank you