1. FROM 2015 TO 2020 IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE PAST 14 YEARS OF REALITY IN THE 21 ST CENTURY Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

2. A FOCUS ON ACTIONS IN 2015 THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE TRANSITION FROM THE PAST 14 YEARS OF GLOBAL DISASTER PRONENESS TO GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE BY 2020

3. THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21 ST CENTURY Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards

4. A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD 7+ billion people, and growing while… Living and competing in an interconnected global economy, Producing $60 trillion+ of products each year, and Facing complex disasters every year that cause $multi-billions in losses and reduce a community’s 3 S’s, 5 E’s, and 1 H.

5. THE 3 S’s SAFETY (loss of life and function from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards that kill and injure and disrupt the lives of tens of millions each year)

6. THE 3 S’s (CONTINUED) SECURITY (loss of homes and jobs) SUSTAINABILITY (loss of national GDP, global competiveness, and overall staying power)

7. THE FIVE E’s ECONOMY ENERGY ENVIRONMENT ECOLOGY EDUCATION

8. THE H HEALTH (“A state of complete, physical, mental, and social well being; NOT merely the absence of disease or infirmity”-- WHO)

9. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes,...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.

10. THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER PEOPLE COMMUNITY RECURRING EVENTS (AKA the potential disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

11. INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS UN--PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN--WARNED UN--ABLE TO RESPOND UN—ABLE TO RECOVER

12. LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21 ST CENTURY Non-disaster-resilient communities (with the associated morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses) Global climate change over time Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

13. LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21 ST CENTURY Poverty Chronic hunger Urgent health care needs Increasing risk of pandemic disease Large-scale migrations of people Endangered plant and animal life Conflict and terrorism

14. THE LEGACY OF THE 21 ST CENTURY THAT WE DON’T WANT Unless we design and implement realistic new paradigms for disaster resilience, OUR LOSSES in terms of the 3 S’s, 5 E’s, and 1 H may grow so rapidly that we may reach “tipping points,” before we realize it, and …

15. THE LEGACY OF THE 21 ST CENTURY THAT WE DON’T WANT ( CONTINUED)... Discover that we are the ones that caused an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of all life on Planet Earth.

16. THE “BEST SOLUTION SET”: THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen To build capacity at the community level for ALL 5 pillars of disaster resilience: preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery/reconstruction

17. THE “BEST SOLUTION SET”: THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE To be relentless in informing, educating, training, and building equity for all five pillars of disaster resilience in all sectors of every community in every nation

18. WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- SO, LET’S DO IT BY 2020! We can each the urgent goal of global disaster resilience by 2020 if communities work strategically to implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions--- nested within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints.

19. HERE’S WHAT WE NEED  STAKEHOLDERS  PARTNERSHIPS  INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY FOR:  PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCTION

20. CONNECT THE 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE RECOVERY/RE- CONSTRCTION ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATED PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION PREVENTION EARLY WARNING EM. RESPONSE

23. FORGE A GLOBAL AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE FORGE A GLOBAL AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY WARNING AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS THAT BUILD ON THE PAST (1990 TO THE PRESENT) WHILE LOOKING TO 2020

24. FACTORS THAT WILL FACILITATE SUCCESS BY 2020 PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET. A COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS WORKING ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD NATIONAL PRIDE CAUSING POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

25. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES TO IMPLEMENT THE KINDS OF ACTIONS THAT ARE NEEDED.

26. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER REAL CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMER- GENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY/RECON- STRUCTION BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES AND ASSETS.

27. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL WE ACHIEVE THE KINDS OF ACTIONS NEEDED TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.

28. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE BY 2020 TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE BY 2020 THE KNOWLEDGE BASE Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation Gateways to a Deeper Understanding Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/Communication Vulnerability and Risk Characterization Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations Situation Data Bases Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources Cause & Effect Relationships CAPACITY BUILDING Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation Seek out, Engage, equip, and Enable “Partnerships” Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Bases Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community CONTINUING EDUCATION Engage Partners in Learning Experiences Enlighten Communities on Their Risks Build Strategic Equity Through Scenarios Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning Update Knowledge Bases After Each Scenario TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning, Emergency Response, and Recovery/Reconstruction

29. YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES / PRACTICES:: PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EM. RESPONSE RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT. COMMUNITY GOALS