1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 The State of the Church in Oregon 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Oregon, and what the complete “State of the Church in Oregon” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Oregon that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UOR20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UOR20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Oregon Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Oregon?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Oregon will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Oregon has an attendance percentage (14.5%) that is lower than the average for the nation (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Oregon.

8. 10.5% Morrow 10.7% Josephine 11.3% Harney 11.5% Crook 11.6% Jefferson 11.7% Benton 12.1% Lane 12.1% Curry 12.3% Jackson 13.0% Clatsop 13.0% Douglas 13.3% Baker 13.4% Polk 13.4% Columbia 13.4% Grant 13.5% Lincoln 13.6% Clackamas 13.7% Coos 14.2% Washington 14.2% Deschutes 14.9% Hood River 14.9% Klamath 15.0% Lake 15.1% Yamhill 15.6% Tillamook 15.9% Gilliam 16.0% Sherman 16.0% Malheur 16.1% Linn 16.2% Umatilla 16.5% Wasco 16.5% Union 17.3% Multnomah 17.3% Wheeler 18.7% Marion 19.5% Wallowa 10.5% to 13.4% 13.4% to 15.6% 15.6% to 20.5% Oregon Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Christian Worship on any Given Sunday.

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Oregon. The first map shows the population of each county. Nine counties have a population of over 100,000 people. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. 1,547 Wheeler 1,915 Gilliam 1,934 Sherman 7,226 Wallowa 7,422 Lake 7,609 Harney 7,935 Grant 10,995 Morrow 16,741 Baker 19,009 Jefferson 19,182 Crook 20,411 Hood River 21,137 Curry 23,791 Wasco 24,262 Tillamook 24,530 Union 31,615 Malheur 35,630 Clatsop 43,560 Columbia 44,479 Lincoln 62,380 Polk 62,779 Coos 63,775 Klamath 70,548 Umatilla 75,726 Josephine 78,153 Benton 84,992 Yamhill 100,399 Douglas 103,069 Linn 115,367 Deschutes 181,269 Jackson 284,834 Marion 322,959 Lane 338,391 Clackamas 445,342 Washington 660,486 Multnomah 0 to 20,000 20,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 660,487 Oregon Counties 2000 Population

11. Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Oregon in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity

15. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use15

16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Oregon in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the growth of Evangelical and Catholic churches and the slight decline of Mainline churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Oregon in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the percentage decline of evangelical and mainline churches.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Oregon. The Pie Chart shows how no group predominates in Oregon. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined in the percentage of the population from 1990 - 2000.

23. Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

24. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27

28. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Oregon in 2000.

30. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

31. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

32. 1.1% Lane 1.4% Wheeler 1.5% Polk 1.7% Crook 2.0% Josephine 2.1% Douglas 2.2% Jackson 2.2% Union 2.2% Baker 2.2% Linn 2.5% Coos 2.7% Columbia 2.8% Deschutes 2.9% Jefferson 2.9% Curry 3.0% Wallowa 3.1% Yamhill 3.1% Clackamas 3.2% Klamath 3.3% Benton 3.3% Lincoln 3.3% Clatsop 3.4% Morrow 3.5% Tillamook 3.6% Hood River 3.6% Grant 3.7% Wasco 3.9% Lake 4.0% Harney 4.3% Umatilla 4.3% Washington 4.4% Sherman 4.5% Multnomah 5.1% Marion 6.5% Malheur 6.7% Gilliam 0.0% to 2.8% 2.8% to 3.8% 3.8% to 7.7% Oregon Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Catholic Worship on any Given Sunday.

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 14 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 22 counties declined. Of the 9 counties with over 100,000 residents, all but Washington County declined.

34. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Oregon between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 18 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 18 counties declined. For mainline churches, 2 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 34 counties declined. For Catholics, 20 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 14 counties declined.

36. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

37. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

38. -37% Harney -35% Baker -32% Klamath -27% Lake -19% Linn -18% Josephine -16% Curry -13% Clackamas -9% Union -9% Marion -5% Jackson -4% Yamhill -2% Coos -1% Lane 0% Wasco 0% Douglas 0% Multnomah 0% Columbia 1% Crook 1% Clatsop 2% Polk 3% Wallowa 3% Benton 3% Washington 8% Tillamook 12% Wheeler 12% Deschutes 18% Gilliam 21% Lincoln 46% Morrow 51% Jefferson 56% Umatilla 59% Sherman 61% Malheur 100% Grant 111% Hood River Oregon Counties 1990-2000 Increase or Decline in Percentage of Population at Catholic Worship on any Given Sunday. Decline Growth

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Oregon in the past decade. There was a net gain of 83 churches. However, 596 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000.

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The State of the Church in Oregon... Because of strong population growth in Oregon, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges. While church attendance has grown for Evangelicals and Catholics, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining for the Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches. This resulted in an 10% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Oregon. Five hundred and thirteen additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Oregon Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UOR20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UOR20.htm The Complete Portland Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Portland.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Portland.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Oregon & Portland Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/OR0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/OR0.htm

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 25% and 27% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 28% – 30%.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.