1. Deep Convection, Severe Weather, and Appalachian Lee/Prefrontal Troughs Daniel B. Thompson, Lance F. Bosart and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany, State University of New York NWS Focal Points: Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/WFO Albany, NY Matthew Kramar NOAA/WFO Sterling, VA CSTAR Spring Meeting: 6 May 2011 NOAA/CSTAR Grant # NA01NWS4680002

2. Importance Proximity of convective initiation region to densely populated Eastern Seaboard o Aviation impacts Forecasting Appalachian Lee Trough (ALT) convection can be challenging (especially in summer months during weak upper flow) with respect to: o Location o Mode o Severity Weak synoptic forcing shifts focus to mesoscale features (pressure troughs, boundaries, etc.)

3. Overview 1.Background and literature review 2.Data and methods 3.Preliminary results 4.Technology transfer 5.Next steps in research

4. Relevant Literature (1 of 2) Weisman (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev.: An observational study of warm season southern Appalachian troughs. Part II: Thunderstorm genesis zones o ALT present 40% of time from May-September 1984-1985 o Maximum in convection in late afternoon o Convective events stratified by strength of forcing  Lee trough was not the focus for convection in 3 out of 4 forcing categories

5. Lee Trough Formation: PV Perspective PV = g(ζ θ + f)(-∂θ/∂p) d(PV)/dt = 0 for adiabatic flow Need component of flow normal to mountain barrier Flow across mountain barrier will subside on lee side o Advects higher θ downward → warming o -∂θ/∂p decreases → ζ θ must increase → low level circulation Martin (2006)

6. Relevant Literature (2 of 2) Schultz (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev.: A review of cold fronts with prefrontal troughs and wind shifts o Identified 10 mechanisms leading to prefrontal trough (PFT) development  External to front vs. directly associated with front  Interaction with lee trough is one such mechanism o PFTs can:  Become dominant front while original front decays  Maintain intensity, leading to two cold fronts  Never develop frontal characteristics

7. Prefrontal Trough Formation: Frontogenesis Acting On Along-front Temperature Gradients One of ten formation mechanisms in Schultz (2005) Along-front warm advection induces pressure falls o PFT and wind shift propagate eastward o Can move eastward relative to front which moves at advective wind speed Schultz (2005) These PFTs have: o Maximum surface relative vorticity o Maximum surface convergence o Minimum surface pressure But they lead temp. gradient

8. Data and Methods 14 cases of ALT convection from May- September o Provided by Matt Kramar o Area of focus: Southeastern PA through Carolinas 0.5° CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) dataset Horizontal maps and vertical cross sections analyzed in GEMPAK and examined for common features

9. Preliminary Results (1 of 4) ALTs characterized by: o Low-level wind component normal to mountain barrier o Low-level thickness ridge o Low-level thermal vorticity minimum o Low-level geostrophic vorticity maximum ALTs are shallow, warm-core features Climatology is being constructed based on these common features

10. Preliminary Results (2 of 4) 22 July 2008 500 hPa 1800 UTC 22 July 2008 Height (dam, black), geo. vorticity (s^-1, red) and wind (knots, barbs and fills)

11. Preliminary Results (3 of 4) 1800 UTC 22 July 2008

12. Preliminary Results (4 of 4) 1800 UTC 22 July 2008

13. Technology Transfer ALT climatology will pinpoint favored areas and times of: o ALT occurrence o Convective initiation o Severe thunderstorms Future case studies and composite analyses will: o Identify key flow patterns and mesoscale features associated with certain classes of events Goal: synthesize this information into conceptual model o Develop “rules of thumb” for forecasters

14. Next Steps Develop objective criteria for defining ALTs o Construct climatology based on this criteria Look for common flow patterns and vertical temperature profiles when comparing: o Days with common convective location, mode and severity o Active cases vs. null cases Analyze prefrontal trough cases over Northeast (Tom Wasula) o Identify similarities / differences with ALT cases

15. Contact Information Preliminary results are located at: o http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/dthomps o/docs.html dthompso@atmos.albany.edu Questions or comments?

16. ALTs vs. PFTs PFTs are tied to frontal cyclone, while ALTs may develop in absence of synoptic- scale forcing o But ALTs can be manifested as PFTs ahead of a surface cold front ALTs are thought to preferentially develop from SE PA to Carolinas, where terrain orientation is more favorable Similarities may exist in structure and formation of both ALTs and PFTs