1. Tanker supply until 2015 Platts Navigating Through Market Challenges by Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and Projects Athens 26 October 2009 Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com

2. Tanker contracting bn $/ m dwt bn $ Source. Clarkson Shipyard Monitor m dwt Av 7.2 17.5 20.1 411.3 average yearly $ 38.4 62.9 average yearly dwt

3. Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers 10,000 dwt + 50.2 121.8 403.4 m dwt m dwt A modern fleet: 1 Oct 2009 Average age 9.1 years 90% =<20 years old 79% =<15 years old 67% =<10 years old

4. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 10,000 – 59,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 1,61760.3 m dwt Orderb. 31213.5 “ 22% Not DH 35611.2 ” 20% 2009 2% reduction demand

5. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 60,000 – 79,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 40128.5 m dwt Orderb. 80 5.9 “ 21% Not DH 58 3.9 ” 14% 2009 2% reduction demand

6. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Aframaxes 80,000 – 119,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 85189.0 m dwt Orderb.16017.7 “ 20% Not DH 74 7.1 ” 8% 2009 2% reduction demand

7. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Suezmaxes 120,000 – 199,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 39059.6 m dwt Orderb.13821.5 “ 36% Not DH 36 5.1 ” 9% 2009 2% reduction demand

8. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out VLCCs 200,000 dwt + m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 550165.4 m dwt Orderb.200 62.2 “ 38% Not DH 83 22.8 ” 14% 2009 2% reduction demand

9. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008 Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Fleet 527403.4 m dwt Orderb228121.8 “ 45% Not DH 626 50.2 ” 12% 2009 2% reduction demand

10. Conversions Some 34 m dwt SH tankers converted to dry, offshore and heavy lift, plus some 5 m dwt to double hull tankers m dwt There is a degree of uncertainty both regard to tonnage and in particular the timing of conversion

11. Development of single hull fleet (incl. DB/DS) m dwt Some 46 m SH tankers and 6 m DB/DS tankers

12. Tanker removals - phase out m dwt Year

13. Accumulated fleet increase based on deliveries, demolition, conversion and phase out m dwt Year

14. Investment in new tankers Some $ 219 billion invested since 2000 with the result that 97% of tanker fleet double hulled end 2010* *Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old %

15. Oil import DH tankers Source: Fearnleys % number

16. Oil export DH tankers Source: Fearnleys % number

17. SH trading beyond 2010? –AustraliaNo –ChinaNo –EU No –Mexico No –Romania No –S KoreaNo –PhilippinesNo –UAENo no official note to IMO on – –Bahamas Yes – –Barbados Yes – –Liberia Yes – –Marshall Isl.Yes – –Panama FlagYes – –JapanYes – –Singapore Yes – –India Yes – –Hong Kong * Yes *20 years Flag/Port States positions MARPOL 20 Trading until the age of 25 years – –United States N/A OPA90

18. Tanker fleet development (Assumed max phase out, orderbook March 2009, include chemical tankers) Tanker fleet increase 2003-2012: 70% m dwt number

19. Need for new contracts assuming 4% increase in demand m dwt Assumptions: All SH out by 2010 (questionable) Balanced market end 2008 (some slack existed) Current orderbook 24 years life time DH tankers as from 2014/all older cleared by 2013 Ordering 1999-2008 ranged between 11 and 80 m dwt per year (50 m dwt in 2008)

20. Need for new contracts assuming 4% increase in demand

21. Conclusion

22. A tanker surplus is building up unless demand is strong No need for additional tanker orders over the next of years