1. Energy Supply from Wind Power Chris Jermy 24 th February 2005

2. Structure of this Report Potential output firstly needs consideration of: Manufacturing constraints Future turbine outputs And Deeper Considerations: Load Factors and Breakdowns Further constraints The British Wind Energy Association (BWEA) will be referred to for much of this presentation as its resources were highly relevant.

3. Manufacturing Constraints To account for the variability of future markets, technological advance and the growth of the wind turbine manufacturing industry 3 different scenarios are going to be forecasted in order to determine the number of turbines available… The 3 scenarios used will be:Optimistic Pessimistic Probable

4. How many turbines will we have? Year No. turbines manufactured per day No. manufactured per year Cumulative stock Current 0.66 241 1186 20100.700.670.702562442552,4662,4062,461 20150.800.690.842922523063,9263,6663,991 20200.950.730.953472663465,6614,9965,721 20251.150.791.074202883907,7616,4367,671 20301.300.851.158403104209,8617,9869,771

5. Manufacturing Capabilities based on the 3 scenarios In the ‘probable’ case manufacturing rates begin to steady off as demand decreases. Industry reacts stagnantly to demand in the pessimistic case Massive growth of industry fed by demand of cheapening technologies

6. Future Wind Turbine Outputs Now we know how many turbines we could have, we now need to know how powerful they will be in the future… The BWEA give the maximum outputs that can be reached for both off and onshore wind turbines. - Onshore turbines in the future will reach ~2MW but this may effect manufacturing rates so we will stick to outputs similar to Swaffham’s 1.5MW’s. - The maximum for offshore turbines will be ~5MW but again we will be conservative and say 3MW.

7. The BWEA are much more optimistic towards onshore wind turbines so for the sake of estimation we will say that the ratio of future onshore to offshore wind turbine deployment will be 70/30 in favour of onshore wind farms, which will stay constant in my predictions. The total number of turbines were rationed according to the 70/30 split and multiplied by the specified outputs from the previous slide of 1.5MW and 3MW respectively. Estimating the Output of the Onshore and Offshore Turbines

8. Total Energy from available wind turbines Year Total no of turbines Energy from onshore (MW) Energy from offshore (MW) Total Energy (MW) 2010 2,4662,4062,4612,589252625842,2192,1652,2154,8084,6914,796 2015 3,9263,6663,9914,1223,8704,1903,5353,3173,59176577,1877,781 2020 5,6614,9965,7215,9445,2456,0075,0944,7205,149 11,03 8 9,96511,156 2025 7,7616,4367,6718,1496,7588,0546,9856,0826,904 15,13 4 12,84014,958 2030 9,8617,9869,771 10,35 4 8,385 10,26 0 8,8757,1878,794 19,22 9 15,57219,054

9. Final Calculations Year Total Energy (MW)Peta joules 20104,8084,6914,796151.7148.0151.3 201576577,1877,781242.6226.8 202011,0389,96511,156348.3314.5352.0 202515,13412,84014,958477.6405.2472.0 203019,22915,57219,054606.8491.4601.2

10. Further Calculations Energy available after considering the Load factor for the probable scenario (PJ) Energy available after considering the No of failures ~5% (PJ) 45.443.1 68.064.6 105.6100.3 141.6134.5 180.36171.3

11. Further Considerations  Wind resource is variable  Landscape designations- SSSI’s  Urban areas  Civil and military airports  Grid  Transport infrastructure

12. Examples of Constraints on Wind Energy This is an area near Southampton with restriction zones around residential localities This is an area of the South East with the most useful average wind speed of 7 to 8 m/s.

13. Conclusions Could have a vast resource in 2030, however the unpredictability of growth lies much on the shoulders of government policy and local authority implementation, as finding appropriate areas on land (where the most suitable resource is) is fraught with opposition.