1. 1 Populations in Transition

2. 2 World Population Growth World population is projected to increase to its peak of 10 – 12 billion by 2070. 95% of population growth will be in developing countries.

3. 3 World Population Decline After 2070 it is projected to decline. This decline is linked mainly to a decrease in fertility.

4. 4 Factors of Population Transition Hans Rosling’s Ted Talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1 ahRF78https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1 ahRF78

5. 5 World Population Growth In 1990 fertility rate was 3.3 children per woman. 2010 this was 2.56 and it should decrease to under 2 by 2050.

6. 6 Population Transitions Why do you get high birth rates? Parents want children For Labour. To look after them in old age. Continue the family name/prestige. Replace children who have died. Children contribute to income.

7. 7 Questions to think about What is the average age that people have their first child in Canada? Why do we wait?

8. 8 Population Transition Why do birth rates come down? Children are costly Government looks after older people through pensions and health care Urbanization and social change.

9. 9 Population in Transition Why do Birth rates come down Women are free to pursue an education/career. Use of family planning. Lower infant mortality.

10. 10 Family Planning Melinda Gates Ted Talk Malala Un Talk on education

11. 11 Birth Rates

12. 12 Birth Rates Ways to measure fertility Crude Birth Rate = total # of births X 1000 total Population Does not take into account the age or sex structure of a population.

13. 13 Birth Rates Total/General Fertility Rate = the average # of births per one thousand women of childbearing age (15-49). General Fertility Rate = # of births x1000 Women 15-49

14. 14 Birth Rates Age Specific Birth Rate Fertility rate of women in a specific age group. ASBR = # of births x1000 Women of specific age group

15. 15 Birth Rates Age Specific Birth Rates Highest fertility rates are in poorer countries 15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-44TFR MEDC3296111712651.7 LEDC140275273218149795.8

16. 16 Changes in Fertility Changes are a combination of: Sociocultural Factors Economic Factors

17. 17 Sociocultural Factors Status of Women Status of women is assessed by the gender-related development index(GDI) Measures the inequality between sexes in: Life expectancy Education Standard of living

18. 18 Sociocultural Factors Status of Women Birth rates are high when status of women is low. Few women educated Few women allowed in workforce

19. 19 World GDI

20. 20 Sociocultural Factors Level of Education - higher level of education equals fewer children. Middle-income families with high aspirations but limited income have fewer children. Poor people with less ambition tend to have more children.

21. 21 Sociocultural Factors Type of Residence - People in rural areas tend to have more children than urban areas because: Rigid social pressure on Women Greater freedom from government rules Women have less education or opportunity

22. 22 Sociocultural Factors Religion - In general, religions are pro natalist. Less people follow religion strictly in MEDCs.

23. 23 Sociocultural Factors Health of the mother Poor health in mothers can result in a higher infant mortality rate. Mothers may then become pregnant again to compensate for the child they have lost, leading to higher fertility rates.

24. 24 1)Effects of One Child Policy Rural Urban

25. 25 Aging Pyramids A population pyramid will show aging by having a small base and a large population in the 60 - 75 range.

26. 26 High Birth Rate Pyramid Has a large population at the base (>20) gets smaller through the other age groups.

27. 27 Life Expectancy A general idea of life expectancy can be determined by looking at the numbers in older demographics. Japan has a higher life Expectancy.

28. 28 Dependency Ratio This tells us how many people need to be taken care of by the people who do work. Dependants/Economically active Formula (Population 64) Population aged 16-65

29. 29 To Do 1. Determine if your pyramids are aging or not. 2. Rank them according to life expectancy 3. Calculate the dependency for each graph. 4. What do you think will be the future challenges for your countries.

30. 30 Population Pyramids High Birth Rate/Growth Population Challenges ●High cost of childcare and education ●Increased cost of child benefits paid by the government ●Shortage of workers (in the short-term) ●Cost of healthcare (midwives, health visitors, etc.) ●Lower Income = Lower tax base. ●Less money for infrastructure

31. 31 Population Pyramids Aging Populations Challenges Shortage of workforce Reduced taxation income for the government Drastically increased health care cost and care homes (elderly tend to get sick more frequently) 90% of Health care costs occur during last 6 months of life.

32. 32 Population Pyramids Aging Populations continued Reduced spending on education, policing, transport network, etc. Cost of paying for pensions Service decline (schools, sports centres, etc. not used by older residents)

33. 33 Population Pyramids and History Wars Wars are usually fought by men between the ages of 16 and 45. On a pyramid you will see a drop in men in this age range.

34. 34 Effects of Wars Note decline in Male Population. 65 and older represents World Wars.

35. 35

36. 36 Immigration (Work) Note the high male population

37. 37 Death Rates High when lack of food and clean water poor hygiene and sanitation overcrowding contagious diseases Basically symptoms of poverty

38. 38 Death Rates Decline when Clean water and reliable food supply good hygiene and sanitation Lower density vaccination and health care High standards of living

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