1. Lecturers: Stefan Mulitza André Paul Michael Schulz Rüdiger Stein
Climate change
Lecturers:
Stefan Mulitza
André Paul
Michael Schulz
Rüdiger Stein

2. Climate change Climate Change I: Fundamentals Earth System Modeling
The Role of High Latitude Oceans in Climate Change
Students obtain a basic understanding of the physics of the climate system with special emphasis on high latitude processes. They become familiar with the mathematical and physical concepts underlying earth-system models and obtain programming and data-analysis skills (MATLAB).

3. Conceptual model of the climate system
Ruddiman, p. 10:
complexity of real climate system organized and simplified in a conceptual model
engineer’s point of view: the climate system running as a machine
Figure 1-5 (bottom) from Ruddiman (2001)
Earth System Modeling 3

4. The modern ice-covered Arctic Ocean: marine productivity and sea-ice cover
The Role of High Latitude Oceans in Climate Change

5. Climate change Climate Change II: Models and Data
Abrupt Climate Changes
Modeling Past and Future Climate Changes
The students become familiar with the reconstructed climate variations for selected time intervals of the Cenozoic. They gain an understanding of the dynamics of abrupt climate changes and are enabled to assess the role of natural and anthropogenic climate variations in future climate change.

6. Why study abrupt climate change?
it has repeatedly affected much or all of the Earth, locally with temperature changing by as much as 10 °C in 10 years
evidence suggests it is not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies
its not well enough understood to be predicted
research into causes, patterns, and likelihood of abrupt climate change can help reduce vulnerabilities and increase adaptive capabilities
Abrupt Climate Changes
Alley et al. (2003)

7. Strongest warming over land and at high latitudes
Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–
2100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature change, (b) average percent change in annual mean
precipitation, (c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent and (d) change in ocean surface pH.
Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986–2005. The number of CMIP5 models used to
calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. For panels (a) and (b),
hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean is small compared to internal variability (i.e., less
than one standard deviation of internal variability in 20-year means). Stippling indicates regions where the
multi-model mean is large compared to internal variability (i.e., greater than two standard deviations of
internal variability in 20-year means) and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1).
In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for 1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century.
The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of
models (number of models given in brackets) that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and
1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent is given in light blue colour. For further technical details see the
Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29; Figures TS.15, TS.16,
TS.17, and TS.20}
stippling: mean change larger than internal variability + at least 90% of models agree on the sign of change ("small uncertainty")
hatching: mean change less than internal variability ("large uncertainty")
IPCC WG1 AR5, Figure SPM.8
Modeling Past and Future Climate Changes

8. Earth-system modeling
Start: Friday, 17 October 2014, 8:30- 13:00, GEO 1490
Earth-system overview: Atmosphere, ocean and sea ice
Introduction to MATLAB I
André Paul
Michael Schulz

9. The role of high-latitude oceans in climate change
Start: Friday, 19 December 2014, time to be announced, GEO 1490
Information on lectures, laboratory work at AWI, etc.
Participation necessary!
Rüdiger Stein

10. The role of high-latitude oceans in climate change
Practical work in laboratory:
one full day, 9:00-17:00
core description, smear-slide analysis, interpretation of data, etc.

11. Grading
There will be one oral exam (one mark) for each module.

12. Picture: Richard Alley
Hvalsey Church in the Western Settlement; in 1408 the last documentation was recorded here, a marriage
Picture: Richard Alley
Hvalsey Church in the Western Settlement, Greenland (abandoned in 1408)