1. Democratization

2. Three Waves of Democratization ► 1) Late-19 th : urbanization/education, esp. W. Europe  Later 1920s: 20/65; Collapse GD ► 2) Post-WWII decolonization  Collapse 1960s+70s ► Cold War (mostly US) ► 3) Collapse communism: S+E Europe, Latin America, Asia  2000: 2/3 of 190 somewhat competitive elections  44% “free”

3. Preconditions ► 1) Economic Development (J-curve):  Agriculture: rural, little need education, women undervalued (female infanticide), primary resource exploitation, inefficiency, little civil society, political/ethnic conflict over limited revenues  Industrial: urban, educated, women valuable, infrastructure investment, manufacturing/service sector (value added), growing civil society (labor unions, newspapers)  sufficient resources to lift poor w/o excess confiscation rich (even in hard times)

4. 2) International Environment for Democracy ► Prestige of democracy ► Major powers’ role  Cold War: both sides opposed democracy  USSR Czechoslovakia (‘68) + Hungary (’56), Afghanistan (1980s)  US: Guatemala, Chile, Iran, Cuba, Vietnam… ► Imposition  Germany, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan  EU

5. General Processes Democratization ► 1) Independence: if national hero “Washingtonian”  opp’y demo’y  Or, Nigeria 1960  1966 ► 2) Breakdown authoritarian regime: collapse ancien regime  Military dictatorship: economic failure/military defeat  pro- democracy faction (“return to the barracks”)  unwilling kill comrades  give up power (often write new constitution first) but often continuing role in civilian regime (Pakistan, Nigeria)  Charismatic authoritarian: esp. death Great Leader (Stalin, Kim, Khomeini)/other failure of leadership  negotiation reaction/reform forces  Single-party authoritarian (USSR, China, PRI Mexico): esp. hard to oust (acculturation, limited information, no alternate institutions of power)  “hard-liners” vs. “soft-liners” (reformers) ► E.g. Gang of Four vs. Deng; Gorbachev vs. coup ► Democratization from above: negotiations transfer power elite w/oppositions—Mexico, USSR (Gorbachev), China, Nigeria (military) ► Democratization from below: mass demonstrations/pressure  reform—Eastern Europe (1980s+90s), US CRM, Britain Chartist Movement, Iran Revolution

6. Consolidation? ► Main determinant: economic development/modernization/acculturation (institutionalization of democracy)  resource battles minimized, politically manageable, stable even in hard times  But: India (100s millions extreme poverty)  Nigeria, Russia, et. al.: first crisis  ancien regime elements best organized/positioned  reclaim power  maintain veneer of democracy (illiberal/procedural/partial dem’y; electoral authoritarianism)

7. Corruption ► Patron-client relationships ► USSR: nomenklatura (list and class  apparatchik); Putin: siloviki (security services personnel) ► China: guanxi (“relationship”) ► Nigeria: prebendalism ► “prebendalism deals with the advancement of an individual who looks to his/her respective people for favors or support to get into office. However, unlike nomenklatura and guanxi, once in office, this individual then repays his supporters with sums of money, not land or jobs.” ► the sense of entitlement that many people in Nigeria feel they have to the revenues of the Nigerian state. Elected officials, government workers, and members of the ethnic and religious groups to which they belong feel they have a right to a share of government revenues. ► “Loyalty pyramids”  undermines state formation (look to “big man” for services rather than state)

8. ImprovesWorsens Russia, Iran, Mexico, Britain Legitimacy Nigeria (corruption), Failure ideology/acculturation: China Britain (devolution undercuts nationalists: Scots, Welsh, IRA), Mexico (Zapatistas largely internalized by PRD et. al.) Social cleavages / Human Rights (tend to be less repressive toward all than non-democratic, but…) Iraqi-model: elections=ethnic census (Nigeria, Kenya) Democratizing dangerous: populist demagogues— Russia, Iran China (crackdowns) China (household responsibility system; privatization), Mexico (end corporatism, NAFTA), Britain (M. Thatcher) Economic performance (democracies face crises, generally not catastrophes: e.g. Great Leap Forward) Yeltsin’s Russia (crash), Iraq, Nigeria (corruption), Ahmadinejad’s Iran (economic populism  inflation, resource curse, gas subsidies, unemployment)