1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 November 2009 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Canada and US: Dry weather prevailed across the lower Mississippi Valley while wet weather impacted the northwest. Temperatures were well above normal throughout Canada. The GFS forecast indicates above average precipitation for the southeast US and below average precipitation for the northwestern US and western Canada. Mexico and Central America: Above average precipitation occurred in western Panama, but the GFS forecasts near to below average precipitation for the next 7 days over most of Central America. Eurasia: Heavy rain and flooding impacted parts of northern England while unseasonable warm temperatures were observed in Europe and Russia. The GFS forecasts wet weather for much of Europe for the upcoming week. The suppressed phase of the MJO favors decreased rainfall for Indonesia for the next week. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are at least 1.0ºC – 2.0ºC above-average across much of central and east- central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. During the last 4 weeks (1 - 28 Nov 2009), SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180° and 130°W. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Current Status The MJO index amplitude has decreased and indicates that eastward propagation has halted in recent days.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The GEFS predictions of the MJO index indicate a weakening MJO and little eastward propagation during Week-1. Uncertainty becomes high during Week-2.

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over southwest US while near average rainfall has occurred over northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in parts of China. Above average rainfall has occurred in the Philippines due in part to tropical cyclone activity. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

7. Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( 21- 27 Nov 2009), anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation centers were located over the southeast US and north Atlantic, and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation center was located over southeast Europe. During the same 7-day period above average temperatures were observed over northern North America, Europe, and western Russia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C C A

8. Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( 21- 27 Nov 2009), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over Gulf and East coasts of the US, the Alaskan panhandle, and northern Europe. (top panel red ovals). During the 7 day period ( 21 - 27 Nov 2009) precipitation was observed over most of the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, near to above average precipitation occurred in the northwest and Alaskan panhandle while below average precipitation occurred in the lower Mississippi Valley. A series of storms impacted the West Coast from northern California to Alaska. Near average precipitation was observed along the East Coast, the Midwest, and eastern Canada.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, precipitation was above average in the northwest and in northern New England. Precipitation was below average in the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Corn Belt.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was above average in the northwest, Alaskan panhandle, and southern Atlantic coast while precipitation was below average in California, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the eastern Corn Belt.

13. 30 day rainfall totals are above average in the northwest US and below average in northern California, Florida, and the central US. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were well above normal throughout most of the Canadian Prairies and in Southeast Canada underneath 500-hpa ridges. Minimum temperatures were in the -10 to -15 deg C range in the Canadian Prairies, with minimum temperatures ranged between 0 to -10 deg C over southeastern Canada. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

15. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were above average in the northern plains, Midwest, and New England while temperatures were near to below average in the southeast US. Temperatures dropped below freezing as far south as the Texas panhandle late last week. Temperatures were generally seasonable across Mexico. Some freezes were observed in northern Mexico while minimum temperatures were in the single digits across central Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

16. TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts For Days 1-7 below average rainfall is forecast for the west coast of the US and Canada while above average precipitation is forecast for western Alaska and the southeast US. Forecasts from 30 Nov 2009 – Days 1-7

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 wet conditions are likely across the southeast while dry conditions are likely in the Alaskan panhandle and western Canada. Near average precipitation is forecast for the west coast of the US. Forecasts from 30 Nov 2009 – Week 2

18. Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, near average precipitation was observed most of Central America and above average precipitation was observed over parts of Panama. For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was near average across most of Central America and above average in parts of Panama.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in southern Mexico and most of Central America. Precipitation was below average in western Mexico.

22. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are below average in central Mexico, above average in southern Mexico and Nicaragua/Honduras, and near average in northeast Mexico.

23. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 below average precipitation is forecast for most of Central America. Forecasts from 30 Nov 2009 – Week 1

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts below average precipitation for Panama and Costa Rica. Forecasts from 30 Nov 2009 – Week 2

25. Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, above average precipitation was observed in England while scattered showers impacted much of Europe and Russia. Heavy rains in northern England contributed to flooding. Near to below average precipitation was observed in central Africa and Indonesia.

27. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation was above average in England, central India, and parts of Indonesia, while precipitation was below average in Africa and southern Europe.

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average in central Europe, parts of the Middle East, parts of India, eastern China, and parts of Indonesia. Precipitation was below average in Spain, Morocco, Indochina and parts of central Africa.

29. 30 day rainfall totals are above average in southern England and near average in Hungary, eastern Ukraine, and Siberia. Hungary has received very little precipitation in the past two weeks. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

30. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days temperatures were well above average across Europe underneath positive 500-hpa height anomalies, with lows between -5 and 5 deg C. In northwest Africa temperatures were near to above average with low temperatures between 0 and 5 deg C in parts of Algeria and Tunisia.

31. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were well above average in the FSU region underneath near average 500-hpa height anomalies. Minimum temperatures were above freezing across the western regions of Russia and below -10 deg C in Siberia.

32. 30 day rainfall totals are above average in Gujarat and southern India due to recent rainfall. 30 day precipitation totals are near average in Luzon and eastern China. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

33. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week temperatures were near average in India and China. Lows dropped below freezing north of the Yangtze River Valley and ranged from 0 to 5 deg C across most of southern China.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts near average precipitation across Europe and below average precipitation across parts of central Africa. The suppressed phase of the MJO will likely contribute to decreased rainfall across western Indonesia (not shown). Forecasts from 30 Nov 2009 – Week 1 For more information (updated on Tuesdays) see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts near average precipitation for Europe and the suppressed phase of the MJO favors near to below average precipitation for Indonesia. Forecasts from 30 Nov 2009 – Week 2

36. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf Africa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf Afghanistan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

37. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars