1. Institute for Structural Research Julian Zawistowski 22 September 2009 Institute for Structural Research1 Assessment of the benefits drawn by EU-15 countries as a result of cohesion policy implementation in Poland

2. Outline of the presentation 1. Scope of the research 2. Methodology 3. Results 4. Conclusions 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions 22 September 20092Institute for Structural Research

3. Institute for Structural Research: Institute for Structural Research3 About IBS is a think tank – an independent scientific foundation promotes implementation of scientific results in practical socio-economic policy cooperates with private and public institutions conducts research increasing innovation and competitiveness of the economy 22 September 2009 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

4. SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH 22 September 2009Institute for Structural Research4 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

5. Institute for Structural Research5 Cohesion policy in EU 22 September 2009 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions Beneficiaries of EU’s cohesion policy in 2004-2006 Beneficiaries of EU’s cohesion policy in the 2007-2013 perspective

6. Institute for Structural Research6 Aim of the research 22 September 2009 The aim of the study was to estimate the magnitude of benefits for the EU-15 countries from the implementation of EU’s cohesion policy in Poland. 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

7. METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH 22 September 2009Institute for Structural Research7 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

8. Institute for Structural Research8 Microeconomic research 22 September 2009 Methodology of the quantitative microeconomic research Use of CAWI (Computer Aided Web Interview), a web survey. The sampling was achieved on a level of over 30 percent (in regard to the value of the projects/subsidies). A supplementary analysis of the documentation of the projects’ sample was carried out. 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

9. Institute for Structural Research9 Macroeconomic research 22 September 2009 Methodology of the macroeconomic research The sectoral structure of the inflow is approximated according to the sectoral structure of the value of contracts with Polish companies, established by the CAWI survey. Subsequently, additional imports of consumption and investment goods and services were estimated based on historical data on the import of specific branches of the Polish economy. 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

10. Institute for Structural Research1022 September 2009 Methodology of the macroeconomic research Demand for products of particular branches of the exporting economies was determined using the input-output table of imported goods. The stream of additional imports of intermediary, consumption, and investment goods and services to the EU-15 countries was split into different countries based on the historical structure of Polish imports from these countries. The result of this procedure is the principal result of the research, i.e. the additional value of Polish import broken down into different EU-15 countries, years and economy sectors. Macroeconomic research 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

11. RESULTS 22 September 2009Institute for Structural Research11 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

12. Institute for Structural Research12 Direct benefits 22 September 2009 1. Value of contracts signed by companies based in the EU-15 countries 4.6 billion zlotys, that is 1.2 billion euro, (at 2008 prices)… …which accounts for 7.8% share in total value of all contractors’ deals and 93.1% share in value of deals with foreign contractors,… …out of that figure 2.4 billion zlotys (624.5 million euro) came from EU funds 2. Number of companies 1552 companies (2.3% of all companies and 80.6% of foreign companies),… …which executed 1909 deals (2.3% of all deals)… …within 1460 projects (3.6% of all projects with contracts). The direct involvement of companies from the EU-15 countries as contractors was limited. However, they took part in projects of above-average size. 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

13. Institute for Structural Research13 Distribution of contracts 22 September 2009 2.4 billion zlotys (624.5 million euro) 1552 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

14. Institute for Structural Research14 Microeconomic research vs macroeconomic research 22 September 2009 2,8 billion euro 2004-2015 direct 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

15. Institute for Structural Research15 Microeconomic research vs macroeconomic research 22 September 2009 2.8 billion euro 22.1 billion euro 2004-2015 direct indirect 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

16. 1. Aggregate value of total (direct and indirect) benefits for the EU-15 countries in 2004-2008 11.8 billion zlotys, that is 3.2 billion euro, at 2008 prices,… …which accounts for 18.5% of the total value of funds received by Polish economy due to EU cohesion policy in 2004-08. 2. According to the forecasts for the period 2009-2015, the aggregate value of total benefits is: 87.63 billion zlotys (24.9 billion euro at 2008 prices) for the entire 2004-2015 period… …which accounts only for 13% of the whole outcome. The share of direct benefits (drawn in years 2004-15) in the total is only 13.5%, which means that they are only ‘the tip of the iceberg’. A much larger fraction of gains of the EU-15 countries results from increases of the commercial exchange. Institute for Structural Research16 Total benefits (direct and indirect) 22 September 2009 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

17. Institute for Structural Research17 Geografical distribution of total benefits 22 September 2009 24.9 billion euro 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

18. The EU-15 countries received 25% of the expenses for the implementation of the cohesion policy in Poland, and if we take into account the benefits from EU funds they receive – 32%. Institute for Structural Research18 Additional export vs. costs of the cohesion policy 22 September 2009 For each euro contributed to the common budget for that purpose, the EU-15 countries receive 25 eurocents back (gross value), and if we take into account the benefits from EU funds they receive – 32 eurocents (net value) (gross value) (net value) 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

19. Institute for Structural Research19 Conclusions 22 September 2009 Crucial conclusions: For each euro contributed to the common budget for the implementation of the cohesion policy in Poland, the EU-15 countries receive 25 eurocents back, and if we take into account the benefits from EU funds they receive – 32 eurocents. The implementation of the cohesion policy in Poland gives most profits to domestic companies. However, a substantial increase of exports by foreign companies means that all parties benefit from this policy. Most of the profits are derived by countries situated close to Poland – Germany and Austria. The sectoral structure of imports fosters the development of new technologies and the growth of knowledge-based economies. 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

20. Institute for Structural Research20 Conclusions 22 September 2009 Crucial conclusions: Large infrastructural projects and projects involving business aid are the ones that best stimulate the commercial exchange. The effects of the cohesion policy are virtually immune to the occurrence and depth of economic crises. Input-output tables proved to be very helpful when estimating the gains of foreign companies. This method may be useful for further studies in similar subject areas. It is yet too early to appraise the results of outward infrastructural investments. 1.Introduction 2.Scope of the research 3.Methodology 4.Results 5.Conclusions

21. Institute for Structural Research21 Thank you for your attention! 22 September 2009 ibs@ibs.org.pl tel. +48 22 629-33-82 / fax +48 22 395-50-21 ul. Rejtana 15, 02-516 Warszawa www.ibs.org.pl