1. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality Prepared by Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D. THE URBAN INSTITUTE Program on Law & Behavior July 1999

2. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC The Juvenile Court System Has Been Widely Criticized in Recent Years Juvenile courts are perceived as weak and ineffective. The term “juvenile justice” has almost become a synonym for soft, lenient, and outmoded. This perception has encouraged lawmakers to make profound changes in juvenile crime policy. The juvenile justice system is now more formalized and adversarial and far more youth are sent to adult court.

3. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Conventional Wisdom Suggests: Crime policy should focus on juveniles because they are responsible for most of our violent crime problems. Although a common perception, this is wrong, or at least misleading.

4. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Percent Under Age 18 in 1997 U.S. Population 26% Total Arrests19% Violent Index Arrests 17% Arrests for Murder14% Property Index Arrests35% Violence is Not Disproportionately a “Juvenile” Problem Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

5. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Policy focuses on juveniles because: But, some of the focus is misplaced: Data analyses can distort the role of juveniles in violence. It is common to highlight the juvenile crime problem by contrasting it with adult crime. This masks the fact that young adults (ages 18-23) are violent at a higher rate than juveniles. Juveniles are the leading edge of the problem; crime and violence start to emerge during the teen years. Prevention and early intervention must focus on juveniles.

6. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Juvenile Murder Arrests

7. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Juvenile Murder Arrests Adult Murder Arrests The contrast between juvenile arrests and adult arrests leads us to conclude that juveniles were responsible for the increase in murder arrests from 1984 to 1994.

8. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Juvenile Murder Arrests Adult Murder Arrests

9. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest But, note what the term “juvenile” means.

10. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest

11. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest Juvenile Each State sets the age of juvenile court jurisdiction, usually under 18. Anyone arrested under that age is a juvenile. Those over that age are adults.

12. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest JuvenileAdult “Youth” But “adults” have widely varying arrest rates. Most violent crimes, in fact, are committed by “youth” in their late teens and early twenties.

13. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest This can be seen by looking at the per capita rate of arrests for Violent Index Crimes by age.

14. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest

15. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest

16. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Age at Arrest

17. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997

18. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24. Among 13 and 14-year-olds, there were 360 arrests for every 100,000 13 and 14-year-olds in the population in 1997.

19. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24. The rate climbed to nearly 600 arrests per 100,000 among 15-year-olds.

20. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

21. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

22. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24. The rate continued to climb until peaking at age 18, and then started to fall.

23. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

24. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

25. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

26. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24. This “age-crime curve” confirms that the rate of violent crime peaks in the late teen years and early twenties.

27. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

28. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest Juvenile Adult 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24. Most of the peak crime years are in the adult category.

29. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest Juvenile Adult 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24. Combining the high-crime rates of younger adults with the low rates of older adults obscures the fact that violent crime rates are very high among young adults.

30. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC 1015202530354045 Violent Index Crimes Arrests per 100,000 1,000 600 800 200 400 Age at Arrest Juvenile Adult 1997 Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

31. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC The effect this would have on policy is clear if we examine how the age-crime curve for murder changed during the crime wave of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

32. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1980 This was the shape of the age-crime curve for murder as of 1980.

33. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1980

34. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1985 By 1985, not much had changed.

35. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1985 Sharp increases appeared during the late 1980s.

36. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1985

37. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1986

38. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1987

39. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1988

40. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1989

41. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1990

42. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1991

43. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1992

44. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1993

45. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1994 By 1994, policymakers and the public were very concerned about youth crime. When analysts compared juvenile and adult murder rates, the answer seemed clear: Change in arrest rate for murder: 1980-1994 Juveniles +108% Adults -12%

46. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1994 This comparison was common in media stories about the problem of juvenile violence. From Crime Time Bomb US News & World Report March 25, 1996 by Ted Gest with Victoria Pope It seemed as if the juvenile justice system was failing to control crime. Most States reacted by making radical changes in their juvenile justice systems and sending more juvenile offenders to criminal court.

47. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1994 The murder rate subsided between 1995 and 1997.

48. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1995

49. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1996

50. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). 1997

51. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Look more closely at the change in murder arrest rates between 1980 and the peak year, 1994.

52. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder 1994 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

53. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder 1994 1980 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Rates actually declined between 1980 and 1994 for people over age 23.

54. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder 1994 1980 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

55. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder 1994 1980 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). All of the increase was among young people.

56. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder 1994 1980 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

57. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Murder 1994 1980 Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). But rates increased among both young adults and juveniles.

58. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Consider the actual increase in murder arrests from 1980 to 1994. How much of the increase was due to changes in murders by juveniles?

59. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Age-Specific Differences in Murder Arrests Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Again, the increase in murder arrests was due to growth among juveniles and young adults, not juveniles alone.

60. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Finally, the same effect can be seen in studies of homicide by firearms versus other methods.

61. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Juvenile Murderers With Gun Other Methods Source: Snyder, Howard N., and Finnegan, Terrence A. (1998) Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-1996 [Data presentation and analysis package]. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice [producer]. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [distributor]. This graphic was of great concern during the mid-1990s, as it shows how the increase in juvenile homicides through 1994 was entirely gun related.

62. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Juvenile Murderers With Gun Other Methods Source: Snyder, Howard N., and Finnegan, Terrence A. (1998) Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-1996 [Data presentation and analysis package]. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice [producer]. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [distributor].

63. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Adult Murderers (Age 18 and older) With Gun Other Methods Source: Snyder, Howard N., and Finnegan, Terrence A. (1998) Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-1996 [Data presentation and analysis package]. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice [producer]. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [distributor]. When the same analysis was applied to all adults, the difference in gun and non-gun homicides was not as stark, suggesting that there was something distinct and disturbing about “juveniles.”

64. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Adult Murderers (Age 18 and older) With Gun Other Methods Source: Snyder, Howard N., and Finnegan, Terrence A. (1998) Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-1996 [Data presentation and analysis package]. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice [producer]. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [distributor].

65. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC The contrast between juveniles and adults obscured the fact that young adults had the same pattern.

66. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Age 10-17 Age 25 & older Age 18-24 Juvenile, Youth, and Adult Murderers Source: Snyder, Howard N., and Finnegan, Terrence A. (1998) Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-1996 [Data presentation and analysis package]. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice [producer]. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [distributor]. With gun Other method Young adults had virtually the same pattern as juveniles. Note also that the number of homicide offenders in the young adult group was twice that of the juvenile age group.

67. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC Policy Implications

68. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC PerceptionReality Juvenile violence is our primary crime problem. Real problem is violence by “youth” (age 15-23). To control violent crime, we need to send more juveniles to adult court. Adult jurisdiction is not a panacea for violent crime. (If it were, crime rates would start to fall at age 17 or 18 rather than at age 20 or 21.) To control violent crime, we need to fix our juvenile court system. Juvenile courts are only part of the solution. We need better programs for youth in general.

69. URBAN INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, DC The Urban Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan policy research organization established in Washington, D.C. in 1968. Its objectives are to sharpen thinking about society’s problems and efforts to solve them, improve government decisions and their implementation, and increase citizens’ awareness about important public choices. Any views expressed here are those of the author and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or funders. For more information: Jeffrey A. Butts Program on Law & Behavior The Urban Institute 2100 M Street, NW Washington, DC 20037 or The Urban Institute, Office of Public Affairs (202) 261-5709 PAFFAIRS@UI.URBAN.ORG