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Diagnosis and modelling of Tropical Cyclone Catarina (2004) Ron McTaggart-Cowan and Lance Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York.

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Presentation on theme: "Diagnosis and modelling of Tropical Cyclone Catarina (2004) Ron McTaggart-Cowan and Lance Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York."— Presentation transcript:

1 Diagnosis and modelling of Tropical Cyclone Catarina (2004) Ron McTaggart-Cowan and Lance Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York

2 Outline ● Case introduction and background ● Diagnostic investigation of Catarina's origins – Extended analysis for March 2004 – Climatology of persistent Rex blocking in the South Atlantic ● Modelling Catarina's spin-up as a tropical system ● Discussion and future directions

3 Introduction and Background ● Extratropical disturbance first identified 18/19 ● Tropical structures begin to appear 00/24 ● System becomes tropical just after 00/25 ● Winds of 75-85 kts develop by 06/28 Storm track and intensity estimates based on best track by Roger Edson

4 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 12 March 2004

5 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 13 March 2004

6 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 14 March 2004

7 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 15 March 2004

8 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 16 March 2004

9 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 17 March 2004

10 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 18 March 2004

11 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 19 March 2004

12 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

13 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 12 March 2004

14 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

15 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

16 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

17 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

18 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

19 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

20 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

21 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 29 March 2004

22 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

23 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 21 March 2004

24 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

25 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

26 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

27 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

28 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

29 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

30 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

31 Introduction and Background 0000 UTC 29 March 2004

32 Introduction and Background 0915 UTC 25 2028 UTC 25 0849 UTC 26 2116 UTC 270832 UTC 272002 UTC 26 >45 kts QuikScat and GOES imagery from FNMOC

33 Introduction and Background NOAA NESDIS Mean SST for 24-27 March 2004 NOAA NESDIS Operational SST anomaly for 26 March 2004 24 28 -202 26

34 Diagnostic Study ● Investigate the origins of the tropical disturbance in terms of the large-scale flow near South America in late March 2004 ● Determine what - if any - distinct features led to the rare tropical transition/cyclogenesis – Persistent troughing east of Brazil – Maintenance of a Rex block in the are over a period of two weeks

35 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 12 March 2004

36 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 13 March 2004

37 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 14 March 2004

38 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 15 March 2004

39 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 16 March 2004

40 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 17 March 2004

41 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 18 March 2004

42 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 19 March 2004

43 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

44 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 21 March 2004

45 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

46 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

47 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

48 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

49 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

50 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

51 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

52 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 29 March 2004 3

53 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 20 March 2004 1 2 A B

54 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 21 March 2004 2 1 A B

55 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 22 March 2004 2 1 B

56 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 23 March 2004 3 2 1 B

57 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 24 March 2004 3 2 1 C

58 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 25 March 2004 3 2 1 C

59 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 26 March 2004 3 2

60 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 27 March 2004 3 2

61 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 28 March 2004 3

62 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 29 March 2004 3

63 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 23 March 2004

64 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 25 March 2004

65 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 27 March 2004

66 Diagnostic Study ● Repeated trough reinforcements off the Brazilian east coast from 12-28 March 2004 ● Repeated poleward advection of low-PV air from the Pacific over same period ● The resulting Rex block helps to reduce the deep-layer shear over the developing system ● But how often does this happen?

67 Diagnostic Study Mean 500 hPa Height Anomaly 16-29 March 2004

68 Diagnostic Study NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean 300 hPa heights for 16- 29 March 2004 Average anomalous 300 hPa heights for 16-29 March 2004

69 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 18 March 2004

70 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 20 March 2004

71 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 22 March 2004

72 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 24 March 2004

73 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 26 March 2004

74 Diagnostic Study 0000 UTC 28 March 2004

75 Diagnostic Study Feb-March

76 ● The in-situ development of the system suggests a combination of physical and dynamical forcings ● Cool SSTs (~26C) were at or below climatology ● Lack of in-situ observations make analysis of the case problematic ● A good simulation of the development will provide a consistent dataset from which to continue higher-resolution diagnostics Modelling Study

77 ● Track of the system is well modelled 12/25 – 00/28 ● Storm remains weak throughout the simulation Modelling Study Simulated Track Best Track (Roger Edson)

78 Modelling Study 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March A B

79 Modelling Study 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

80 Modelling Study A B 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

81 Modelling Study A B 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

82 Modelling Study 00 h forecast 1200 UTC 25 March

83 Modelling Study 48 h forecast 1200 UTC 27 March

84 Modelling Study 60 h forecast 0000 UTC 28 March

85 Modelling Study A B 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

86 Modelling Study 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

87 Modelling Study A B 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

88 Modelling Study A B 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

89 Modelling Study 72 h forecast 1200 UTC 28 March

90 ● The development of TC Catarina occurred under an unusually persistent Rex block off the Brazilian east coast ● Repeated injections of high (low) PV air to the ridge (trough) maintained the block and reduced the shear above the developing system ● Large-scale dynamics and steering are well represented in simulations, but inadequate initial moisture reduces spin-up Summary and Discussion

91 ● Reanalyze case using higher-resolution experimental Brazilian analyses ● Investigate the source of the vapour deficit in the operational analyses ● Perform moisture-based sensitivity studies in an effort to better simulate the observed development Future Directions

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